June 07, 2008
Graphing Chipper
The latest graph of Chipper Jones's probability of hitting .400 is up. His probability of hitting .400 is now 0.001059, the highest it's been this season. His two for three Friday raised his average to .421. He'll need an 0 for 12 to fall below .400.
Posted by David Pinto at
08:26 AM
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What are you using for his "true" BA?
I'm using .309. That was his career average when I started keeping the spreadsheet.
Seeing as he hit .324 in '06, .337 last year, and .421 thus far this year, don't you think that's a bit low? Doesn't make a whole lot of sense to weight something that happened this year as much as something that happened 12 years ago.
The last two seasons were partial seasons for Chipper. He didn't get a chance to wear down.
Why should I believe and older player is getting better with age? I prefer a conservative estimate.
He had 600 PAs last year.
PECOTA: .316
ZiPS: .318
Marcel: .307
And that was before he hit .421 for two months. .309 is an unrealistic portrayal of his current skill level.