The latest graph of Chipper Jones's probability of hitting .400 is up. His probability of hitting .400 is now 0.000959, the highest it's been this season. His four for five yesterday raised his average to .418. I keep waiting for the slump, and the slump doesn't happen.

Devon Young sends the following information showing Chipper tends to hit better in the second half of the season:

1995: .248/.282 (+34)
1996: .300/.321 (+21)

1997: .307/.281 (-26)
1998: .309/.318 (+9)
1999: .313./.328 (+15)
2000: .320/.301 (-19)
2001: .308/.356 (+48)
2002: .307/.353 (+46)

2003: .289/.325 (+36)
2004: .214/.278 (+64)
2005: .282/.307 (+25)
2006: .315/.341 (+26)
2007: .329/.345 (+16)

Chipper's going to be fun to watch. Right now, he needs an 0 for 10 to fall below .400, so he should remain there at least two more games.

Update: Congratulations also to Chipper on his 400th career home run!

Correction: Someone emailed to ask how I did the calculation. In stepping through it I discovered a rounding bug that caused a underestimation of the hits needed for a .400 average sometimes. Instead of usings round, I'm now usings roundup for the hits calculation. That lowers his current probability of hitting .400 to 0.000655915. I've updated the graph.