April 02, 2008
Clutch Truce?
The Other Fifteen wants a truce over clutch hitting.
This isn't a cry for fusion, or balance, or peaceful coexistence. The world wouldn't be a better place if newspaper articles all read "Today the Cubs and Brewers recorded 27 outs apiece in a contest at Wrigley Field, which revealed almost nothing about the two teams due to the small sample size involved." Nor would the world be a better place if VORP started including Steely-Eyed Resolve as one of its components.
What I am asking for is a simple truce: believers in clutch, I as a student of sabermetrics will stop telling you that clutch doesn't exist, or is insignificant, or what have you, if you will stop insisting that its existence in any way, shape or form has an impact on impartial evaluations of player performance. Do we have a deal?
No deal. There are clutch hits, which fit the narrative of the game discussed in the post. All players get clutch hits; that does not make them clutch hitters. When David Ortiz hits a walk off home run, there is no doubt in my mind it was a clutch hit. When Luis Sojo wins a World Series game with a hit, there's no doubt it was a clutch hit. That doesn't make them clutch hitters.
The narrative that X delivered in the clutch is fine. The narrative that he often delivered in the clutch is fine. The narrative that X is clutch hitter based on five or six at bats doesn't work.
Hat tip, The Hardball Times.
Posted by David Pinto at
04:50 PM
|
Statistics
|
TrackBack (0)
I'm not sure there is such a thing as a "clutch" hitter, but there MUST be guys who fail in the clutch more than others because they get nervous in clutch situations. A player might not do any better with the game on the line than they do in the first inning ... but there might be players who do better than the Nervous Nellies who fail with the game on the line.
What do we know about basketball? Trying to make a free throw or a shot in the last few minutes of a tight game is a clutch situation. Someone must have stats on that.
Surprised we have gone this far in this discussion without someone bringing up all that crap about Jeter.
My interpretation of the "clutch doesn't exist" part is that he is meaning an ability. I think he still realizes there are clutch hits.
Eric Van (who was, and may still be, working for the RSox) told me a couple of years ago that he had analyzed at the data and indeed confirmed the presence of "clutch hitters."
Since I mostly ignored baseball for the past couple of years, I don't know if he's published that anywhere.
And, while I'm at it: if Jeter is so effing "balletic," why doesn't he just join the Joffrey and leave his position to someone who can play shortstop at the major league level?
Case in point yesterday - 0-0 in the 7th and Ortiz smokes a homer - puts the Sox against the losing game half of the A's bullpen and they win 5-0.