Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
March 09, 2008
Complicated Stats

Joe Posnanski takes on the idea that the new stats are too complicated:

But here's why this whole "It's so confusing" argument amuses me so much: People will tell you that the new stats are too convoluted or manufactured ... and yet there are NO stats more convoluted and manufactured than the basic statistics that baseball has been built around for more than 100 years.

Some of this should be obvious. Batting average? It's ridiculous. Preposterous. Imagine that no one had ever come up with batting average before ... and then someone on a blog came up with with this idea:

Blogger: I have come up with a new statistic. It involves balls put in play. I call it batting average.
Establishment: Great! How's it work?
B: See, what we'll do is, we'll take the number of hits that the batter has and divide it by the number of at-bats that he has in order to determine how often he gets a hit.
E: That sounds like on-base percentage. What's the difference?
B: Well, it's all in what you call "at-bats" For one thing, we don't count walks.
E: What do you mean you don't count walks?
B: They don't count. We take plate appearances and subtract walks. They never happened.
E: How can a walk never happen?
B: It just doesn't.
E: Aren't walks good things? Like in Little League, we always say "Walk's as good as a hit."
B: I hate walks. They're gone. So let's say a guy comes to the plate 12 times, and he gets four hits and walks twice ...
E: Right ... that's a .500 on-base percentage.
B: Exactly, but if you just subtract the walks, you will see that he has a .400 batting average.
E: Um, OK.
B: But there are other things. If you hit a fly ball, and someone tags up and scores a run, that does not count as an at-bat.
E: Why not?
B: Because you are sacrificing yourself for the betterment of the team? I call it a sacrifice fly. Get it?
E: Well, what are you sacrificing if it doesn't even count against your stats?
B: You just are, OK?
E: What if you hit a ground ball and the runner scores.
B: How's that?
E: Let's say the infield's back and a guy hits a ground ball to get the run in. How do you score that?
B: No, that's not a sacrifice fly.
E Why not? Doesn't that accomplish the same thing?
B: It just isn't. Come on, pay attention. What's it called. Sacrifice FLY? Hello! He didn't hit a fly ball.
E: It just seems to me ...
B: Sacrifice bunts also do not count as at-bats. And when you get hit by a pitch ... doesn't count.
E You don't get any statistical notice for getting hit by a pitch?
B: Like it never happened.
E: I'm afraid to ask this: What happens if you reach on an error.
B: That's the beauty of this system. According to my new batting average, you're out.
E: But you're not really out.
B: I know. Isn't it great?
E: Why does this have to be so complicated?
B: It's batting average! It will take over the world!

I like to explain this be asking a person to define an at bat as what it is, rather than what it isn't. You can't do it. Joe takes on ERA as well. It's a typical great Posnanski post.

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Posted by David Pinto at 07:50 PM | Statistics | TrackBack (0)
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