Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
March 07, 2008
Time for James

Bill James sits down with Time magazine. Two separate questions actually meld together well. First, Bill on ERA:

You often show that conventional baseball statistics aren't as important as they appear. In the book, you write "every year that passes, the ERA (Earned Run Average) becomes a little more irrelevant." Why is that?

The reason the ERA is becoming a little more irrelevant every year is that pitchers don't pitch whole innings anymore. Relief pitchers anyway. If you go back to 1915, 1920, really, all pitchers pitched full innings 99% of the time. And you could measure a pitcher's effectiveness by how many runs he allowed in those whole innings. But modern pitchers, in particular modern relievers, pitch portions of an inning. And in a situation where each pitcher pitches a portion of an inning, who you charge the run to becomes critical. And the rule on whom we charge the run to is so careless and sloppy that it doesn't work. It often leads to pitchers having ERAs that do not reflect how they really pitch, either because the reliever allowed a bunch of runs to score that were charged to somebody else, or because the starting pitcher who left guys on base got hurt by it.

This melds with what Bill would do if he were commissioner:

This is the rule that I would adopt. I've thought about this for a long time, and I don't see why this doesn't work. One time per game, you get a free pitching change without restriction. Otherwise, when you put a pitcher on the mound to start an inning, he has to stay in the game until he's charged with a run allowed. In other words, you have a limit on how often you can put a pitcher out there, let him face one batter and "let's bring in somebody else."

I like that rule. I still like the old way teams used relievers, that he was expected to finish the game unless he got in trouble.

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Posted by David Pinto at 08:37 PM | Interviews | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Hm.
So, it's the ninth inning, and the Yankees have already used their 'free pitching change', and Kyle Farnsworth is pitching. The Yankees lead 3-0. Farnsworth throws four wild pitches and the lead-off man is on.
Kyle obviously has no control. If they leave him in until he gives up a run, it'll be on his fourth walk and the game will be half way to lost. So Girardi instructs Farnsworth to balk three times and give up the run; then they can bring in Rivera with a 2-run lead.

Does the other team have to accept the free base on a balk? I dunno.

I think the rule needs work.

Posted by: James at March 7, 2008 09:24 PM

I think it would work fine if you allowed a new pitcher to start an inning. The main idea behind the rule would seem to be speeding up the game and eliminating three-pitcher innings. However, there's no real delay in having a new pitcher come out to start an inning.

So, with a three run lead, you have mariano start the ninth. If you decide to have Farnsworth start the inning, you're stuck with him until he allows a run. Yeah, it might lose you the game, but that's what you get for having kyle farnsworth in your bullpen.

Posted by: josh o. at March 7, 2008 09:46 PM

>>Otherwise, when you put a pitcher on the mound to start an >>inning, he has to stay in the game until he's charged with a >>run allowed.

I have never heard of this rule, and I am almost certain that I am not understanding it right. If your starter pitches 6 innings and you bring in a guy for the 7th, you can pull him whenever you want. If he didn't give up any runs, he woudln't have to stay in the rest of the game. Can someone explain this?
Thanks

Posted by: Ryan at March 8, 2008 02:50 AM

I like that rule idea too. I understand the strategy factor, but it just doesn't make sense if a pitcher's doing well... why pull him?

And the idea of Bill James for commish...I'd like. I don't know if he has the skills for that role, but it sure would be cool.

Posted by: Devon Young at March 8, 2008 03:24 AM

Josh O. (you aren't "other josh", are you?), surely having Kyle Farnsworth in your bullpen is its own punishment without new rules to pile it on!

But that wasn't my point. My point was the bizarre incentive that the rule creates. You think it's just fine that it would be to a team's advantage to balk a runner from first all the way around to score? I think that's a perversion of baseball, not an improvement.

Posted by: James at March 8, 2008 07:37 AM

I believe the rule would allow a new pitcher to start an inning. James is trying to speed up the game by preventing changes within the inning. Bringing in a pitcher on an inning change does nothing to slow the game.

Posted by: David Pinto at March 8, 2008 08:14 AM

James (the guys in the comments here, not the guy in the interview) makes a good point. What if you are tied in the ninth or extra innings? You are forced to your current pitcher in until you lose? I think the rule makes a lot of sense, but I would only enforce it through 7 or 8 innings. If you did that, you could also probably get rid of the free change. Even if you could eliminate two mid-inning pitching changes per game, it would cut 10 minutes off of the average game length and that would be significant.

I wonder how many mid-inning pitching changes there are in a game. I'm sure some Retrosheet guy could figure that out.

Posted by: Scott Segrin at March 8, 2008 08:48 AM

But if this rule were adopted, the Trever Millers of the world would be out of work. On second thought...

If it puts the Trever Millers of the world out of work, I think it's a great rule.

Posted by: John at March 8, 2008 10:25 AM

I like the sentiment, but this could never work. There would have to be an injury exception, and such a rule would be easily exploited (Farnsworth would grab his arm 50 times a year). Pitch counts complicate matters, and the first time a player gets hurt after he or his manager thought he was done the MLBPA would throw a fit.

At best, you could effectively ban LOOGYs by requiring that pitchers allow a hit or walk before being removed, and coupling an injury exception with a mandatory rest period on the 25-man or DL.

Posted by: Ryne at March 8, 2008 10:38 PM
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