#1? So you think that Fukudome would get Peavy money?

I hope you are joking about that...

I assumed they meant free-agent offers.

Pretty sure they need to offer him more than any other free agent.

Who has been their highest paid free agent? Maddux and Giles each got 10 million a year.

I am pretty sure that they can't get Fukudome for 10 million a year.

This is all entirely moot, the minute he said he was coming to America he became a Chicago Cub. He'll be signed by tomorrow evening.

Cubs will get him. They already have his offense in Matt Murton, so they will essentially be paying 20 times Murton's salary for his left handedness and defense. (maybe a slight boost in OBP)

Boomer don't forget he gets to stand in front of that green door that currently has the under armor logo on it, but surely will have some japanese phrase/product on it. the cubs may not be very good at winning world series, but they are very good at making money. don't think they haven't spec'd this thing out, and are forecasting a net economic, if not accounting, gain for K-FUK's addition.

Murton? I dunno. Fukudome has a career .940 OPS. If the majors take fifty points off that, he'd still be better a real improvement over Murton at a career .820.

And I'm not sure that Fukudome would see that big a drop in OPS, because the number isn't really built on the home run. Fukudome has never hit more than 34 homers in a season. He seems to be more of a get-on-base and doubles kind of guy, who wouldn't be enormously hurt by more distant fences in the U.S.

At any rate, with the unimposing set of outfielders currently on the Cubs roster, Murton might get significant playing time with or without Fukudome around.

Yeah, Murton. I look at Hideki Matsui, Kaz Matsui, Ichiro...everyone of them lost around 100 points in slugging coming over to the States.
Kaz Matsui was a 25 homer a year guy in Japan (couple with over 30!), now he's a slap hitter.
Ichiro even dropped 40 pts of OBP...

I just see Fukudome as a 290/370/440 type of guy here.

Murton? I dunno. Fukudome has a career .940 OPS. If the majors take fifty points off that, he'd still be better a real improvement over Murton at a career .820.

One a 50 point drop? Since when is the drop that small when coming from Japan to the US?

Only a 50 point drop? Since when is the drop that small when coming from Japan to the US?

Because of the type of hitter Fukudome is. A high-OBP, doubles guy who doesn't depnd on friendly fences for a lot of his power. Even a hundred-point drop in OPS would put him above Murton on a career basis, and well above Murton's .791 OPS in 2007.

If Floyd is gone, or even if he returns with his usual injury problems, Murton would probably get playing time regardless of whether the Cubs pick up Fukudome. But Murton's OPS has been going the wrong way since he broke into the majors in 2005. A platoon might be tempting because Murton still hits lefties well.

The Cubs will probably go this way:

LF Soriano
RF Fukudome
1B Lee
3B Ramirez
C Soto
2B DeRosa (or Brian Roberts)
CF Pie
SS Theriot (DeRosa, if Roberts)

Assuming the Cubs get Fukudome, I think they will have enough to get Roberts especially with McPhail in Baltimore. That is a pretty solid NL lineup. Keith Law said the Cubs are a 90-win team if they add K-FUK, I wonder what he projects with Roberts as well?

By the way, I don't know if Fukudome has heard abouit park factors. But he might want to take a peek at baseball-reference.com's ratings.

Wrigley is once again a good hitter's park at 104/105 in 2007. PETCO was its usual house of horrors for hitters at 91/91. The drop in OPS - and long-term prospects for Fukudome in the U.S. - would be strongly influenced by playing in Chicago vs. San Diego. If the money is roughly comparable, go for the Cubbies.

Casey: the only time Murton got regular at bats was in '06.
He's got 830 career at bats with an 820 career OPS.

As I stated earlier, from Japan to the States, I expect a drop in Slugging alone around 100 points. OBP will probably drop a MINIMUM of 20, more likely 30-40.

Fukudome will be somewhere in the 810-840 OPS range IMO. Give Murton 600 at bats, I think he'll be in that range as well.

So the Cubs, IMO, will by paying $13 million a year for Fukudome's left handedness and great defense.

Murton's career OPS path: .980-.809-.791. This is not encouraging. But he can still hit lefties, .892 in 2007. So platoon him with Fukudome.

And the drop in OPS depends on the ballpark. In PETCO you might see a 150 point drop. Of course, you mights see that with Babe Ruth in PETCO. It's a horrible place to hit.

In a much better hitter's park like Wrigley, I think a hundred-point drop in OPS is a reasonable worse-case estimate. Especially if you cut Fukudome's professional problems in half by only hitting him against righties.

Typo: Murton's 2005 OPS was .908, not .980.

Independent of whether the Cubs get Fukudome or not, Murton should always be platooned. He's almost 140 OPS points better against lefties than righties, and the samples have now gotten pretty big. That's a severe split, but he's always been useful against the southpaws.

If you want to use a 140 at bat and 230 at bat sample to say Murton's OPS is declining, well there's no arguing with that. Its a small sample size that doesn't mean much at all. Given regular playing time in a 600 at bat season, I'm pretty confident Murton puts up a 300/360/450 line which isn't much worse (if at all) than what Fukudome will put up....and Murton cost of less than $1 mil vs. the $13 mil for Fuk is just icing on the cake.

Actually, I'm looking at 900 PA's over Murton's career. He's always hit lefties and has been at best so-so against righties, crashing out to .721 in 2007.

Sp platoon the guy, for crying out loud. If he puts up a .810 OPS, as you suggest, that would mean something like .750 at best against righties. I think Fukudome can do better than that against righties with Wrigley as his home park. I think Fukudome can do a lot better than that

In a much better hitter's park like Wrigley, I think a hundred-point drop in OPS is a reasonable worse-case estimate. Especially if you cut Fukudome's professional problems in half by only hitting him against righties.

Curious... have you looked at other Japanese players and their drops in numbers? Take a look at this.

Japanese players have all seen significant drops in SLUG and smaller, but still significant drops in OBP.

Fukudome will see something very similar.

The source gives an average 88 point drop in OPS.
For some reason the author thinks this will translate to a 115-point drop for Fukudome. Don't ask me how 88 turns into 115. Well, I know how it happens. He adds 27 points to the average drop bacause he's trying to force a point about Murton.

Frankly, I think that if you put Fukudome in a hitter's park like Wrigley and hit him only against righties, you could hold the drop to fifty or sixty points. I sure don't think you would get a worse-than-average drop in OPS. Which would mean something like a .880 OPS for Fukudome. And that would be a lot better than what Murton would do against righties.

But even if you take the author's 115-point drop, an .825 OPS is significantly better than Murton's lifetime .771 against righties. And Murton has been going the wrong way against everybody as his career has "progressed."

The key problem with the author's analysis is that he conveniently ignores Murton's huge platoon split, while conveniently overestimating the likely falloff for Fukudome. Hey, anybody can play that game.

Haven't been able to find splits for Fukudome anywhere on the net. A poster to one board said Fukudome had a pretty pronounced platoon split (in the usual direction) for his latest season, but the poster didn't know about full career numbers.

Hm, that Fukudome-Murton platoon is looking better all the time.

Kaz Matsui has a 134 point drop in OPS.
Hideki Matsui has a 139 point drop in OPS.
Ichiro has a 126 point drop in OPS.

Fukudome: 925 OPS in Japan, minus the above numbers...sub 800. I don't think it'll be that bad. But the numbers show it could be.

Where are you getting your 88 point drop from? Go to www.thebaseballcube.com.

And do you really think Fukudome is coming to the states to platoon???

I'm getting the 88-point drop from the source Dave directed me to, which calculates the average from every Japanese player who's come to the U.S.

By the way, Fukudome had a career .940 OPS in Japan. Based on admittedly incomplete info, the OPS appears to have been significantly higher against righties. So even with a hundred-point drop, larger than average despite playing in a good hitters park like Wrigley, Fukudome would be considerably better against righties than Murton.

As to whether he's coming to the States to platoon, I think he's coming to the States to make money. In the large piece of a platoon, he would still be playing almost as much as in a full Japanese season. I think he could live with that.

Let's say Fukudome had a .970 OPS against righties in Japan, which appears to be a reasonable estimate due to what seems to be a usual platoon split. That drops to .870 against righties in the States, allowing for a larger-than-average drop despite Wrigley's friendliness to hitters.

Combine that with Murton's .890 against lefties, which I think he can still achieve. You've got a rightfielder named Mattosuke Fukumurton who hits .875 or so. Not bad for the Cubs. Soriano hit .897 last year to lead the Cubs outfielders, and no other Chicago OF cracked .800.

Hey, let's say Fukudome drops all the way to .830 against righties. That still makes something like .855 for the Cubbies' rightfield platoon with Murton, assuming Matt doesn't regress further.

Could be worse. Especially by the Cubs outfield standards.