Baseball Musings: Random Ortiz

December 11, 2007

Random Ortiz

Dan Fox finds a lot lacking in Bill James latest Sports Illustrated article on clutch hitting. Fox:

First and foremost, the article seems to promote the idea that after the now famous study titled "Do Clutch Hitters Exist?" published in the 1977 Baseball Research Journal by Dick Cramer, that little to no work has been done on the subject of clutch hitting and that what has been done has had an in-grained bias. Quite to the contrary, the topic has been the subject of almost continual debate with a variety of studies published over the years as documented on Cyril Morong's fine site. And more recently there have been several very good analyses done as I discussed in the introduction to my Schrodinger's Bat column of March 1, 2007.

This is not a typical James entry from the Baseball Abstracts. There no details of the method used or why the results are interesting. For example, he produces a table of David Ortiz in clutch situations since 2002 and notes the numbers are impressive.

That's the regular season; I understand he's had a couple of hits in postseason as well. It's a pretty good record; in fact, you kind of have to see more data to understand how good it is. We've started an award for the major leagues' clutch hitter of the year, based on the data, and David could pretty much win it any year. Only a handful of players a year drive in 30 runs in clutch situations. As to whether these data prove that David is a clutch hitter ... I ain't going there. This discussion has been messed up for 30 years because we got our shoulders way out in front of our shoelaces. From now on, I'm holding back.

My problem with the Oritz table is there's no reason to believe it's not random. In 394 at bats, Ortiz produced 127 hits. Over the six seasons covered, Ortiz hit .298. A .298 hitter has a 95% confidence interval of 100 to 135 hits. Ortiz hit 35 home runs in that number of at bats. His home run rate during those six years was .07236. The 95% confidence interval for home runs is 19-39. So he's at the high end of the range, but still in the range. He had a 1 in 8 shot at hitting that many home runs.

When James says, "kind of have to see more data to understand how good it is," I take it he means compared to other players. Until I see the other data, I remain unconvinced that clutch hitting is more than random noise.

Bill, in a way, makes my point for me:

The other question everybody asks now is "How do you determine what is a clutch at-bat?" I'll have to stiff you on that one for right now. I'll explain it generally and leave the details for some other time.
"Clutch" is a complicated concept, containing at least seven elements:

The score,

The runners on base,

The outs,

The inning,

The opposition,

The standings,

The calendar.

All these items whittle down the at bats to a very small number, and it is very difficult to find significance in small numbers of plate appearances. For now, I'll stick to my mantra that good hitters are the good clutch hitters.

Posted by David Pinto at 08:41 AM | Statistics | TrackBack (0)

Comments

One of the biggest issues in all of the clutch hitting debates is getting people to agree on what "clutch" means. To some, it means doing better in important situations than you do in normal situations. To others, it means doing well in important situations. It looks like James is evaluating the latter (since he doesn't include non-clutch stats), but I'm definitely of the opinion that "clutch" is the former.

Posted by: Mike at December 11, 2007 10:32 AM

I'm actually kind of disappointed James has parsed things this way. You can usually rely on him for some pretty spot on analysis, but I agree with David that good hitting and clutch hitting are really the same thing.

Posted by: robustyoungsoul at December 11, 2007 11:00 AM

Part of the "clutch" ability is to have runners on base in, e.g. close and late situations. I would suspect David Ortiz has more opportunities to get an rbi in that situation because there is someone on base for him. If you're a good hitter, but you're down 2 runs and the rest of the lineup stinks you won't get the opportunity to be clutch.

Posted by: rbj at December 11, 2007 11:16 AM

Yeah, I wrote about this last week. It seems like a pretty lazy, extremely subjective and very statistically unsound argument.

I think my biggest problem is assuming that somehow there are players who are BETTER in high stress situations. That and "clutch" hitting would be impossible to categorize in added value in a sabermetic sense.

Link

Posted by: eriz at December 11, 2007 11:19 AM

That being said i'd never pitch to him with an open base

Posted by: Bandit at December 11, 2007 12:35 PM

More important than over-performing in "clutch" situations, maybe it's simply a matter of not under-performing, (succumbing to pressure, choking) in clutch situations. I wouldn't be surprised if that's what we should be looking for.

Posted by: Rob at December 11, 2007 02:04 PM

I'd like to point out that this wasn't really an SI article. It's an article from the THT Annual. We gave permission to SI to reprint it.

He's basically trying to drive some interest in his new book and website, which will be open for business next year.

Posted by: studes at December 11, 2007 03:46 PM

Just as there are people who are less tense when giving a speech than others, I am sure there are players who are less affected by the potentially stressful nature of certain at bats. However, clutch hitting is nearly impossible to quantify for a couple reasons. First is the obvious small sample size being considered (whichever AB's you decide qualify as clutch situations. The bigger issue that affects a hitters performance is of course the pitcher. The small sample size of at bats in "clutch" situations are of course against a wide variety of pitchers. Because of that a batter may be considered to be a superb clutch hitter because several of his keys at bats were against pitcher he happens to hit well off of normally.

Posted by: largebill at December 12, 2007 07:50 PM

Archives

By Category:
Advertising (7)
Agents (11)
All-Star Game (173)
All-Time Greats (205)
Army Strong (8)
Attendance (174)
Authors (3)
Awards (167)
Base Running (76)
Baseball (1580)
Baseball Jerks (212)
Blogs (721)
Books (109)
Broadcasts (551)
Charity (41)
Cheating (573)
Collectibles (14)
Colleges (3)
Commissioner (36)
Conditioning (1)
Contests (10)
Crime (88)
Cuba (1)
Deaths (150)
Defense (358)
Demographics (8)
Discipline (12)
Division Races (721)
Draft (62)
Equipment (21)
Fan Rant (44)
Fan Violence (10)
Fans (56)
Fantasy Baseball (38)
Feats (3)
Films (2)
Free Agents (571)
Games (5548)
History (93)
Hit Streaks (22)
Humor (56)
Ice Cream (4)
Illnesses (125)
Independent Leagues (16)
Infrastructure (3)
Injuries (1050)
International (70)
Interviews (162)
League Championship Series (1170)
League Division Series (923)
Little League (2)
Management (1205)
Mascots (4)
Matchups (698)
Mechandising (43)
Minor Leagues (11)
Movies (9)
News Media (87)
Oddities (1)
Offense (209)
Old Timers (4)
On Base (18)
Opening Day (210)
Opening Day Impressions (19)
Other (295)
Owners (57)
Pennant Races (32)
Pitchers (2849)
Players (1441)
Podcasts (185)
Post Season (58)
Power Hitting (5)
Pranks (1)
Predictions (134)
Probabilistic Model of Range (102)
Public Relations (8)
Records (151)
Rivals (2)
Rookies (44)
Rules (23)
Salaries (8)
Scheduling (21)
Scoring (5)
Series (61)
Simulations (5)
Sluggers (752)
Spring Training (104)
Stadiums (243)
Standings (25)
Statistics (981)
steroids (1)
Strategy (167)
Streaks (14)
Superstitions (16)
Team Evaluation (894)
Team Movements (58)
Tickets (47)
Trades (663)
Transactions (252)
Umpires (52)
Uniforms (16)
Union (19)
Welcome! (3)
women (3)
World Cup (147)
World Series (656)

By Month:
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004
September 2004
August 2004
July 2004
June 2004
May 2004
April 2004
March 2004
February 2004
January 2004
December 2003
November 2003
October 2003
September 2003
August 2003
July 2003
June 2003
May 2003
April 2003
March 2003
February 2003
January 2003
December 2002
November 2002
October 2002
September 2002
August 2002
July 2002
June 2002
May 2002
April 2002
March 2002

Credits

Partners

Baseball Musings Ticket Store
Advertise on the Baseball Blogosphere!
Baseball Musings Fantasy Games
Sports Books
Fan Store

Patrons

Jan in Wellesley
Jack Spellman

Links

Baseball Info Solutions The publisher of the Bill James Handbook and a great source of stats.

ESPN.com's baseball page.

STATS, Inc. You'll find great baseball books and fantasy games here.

Baseball Direct Scoreboard This is powered by STATS, Inc. Good box scores, and good situational stats.

Baseball Reference.com It's like having Total Baseball and the Big Mac online!

Baseball Prospectus.com Wonderful commentary and analysis.

Baseball Primer Baseball for the Thinking Fan.

The Hardball Times Baseball. Insight. Daily.

Takkle High School Sports

Minor League Spilts Database Up-to-date minor league statistics, broken down by situation.

Inside The Book A blog by the authors of The Book.

Baseboogle A search engine for baseball research sites.

Win Shares From Major League Baseball Graphs.

The Transaction Guy A baseball transactions blog.

Japan Baseball Daily An English language site for Japanese baseball news and stats.

Doug's Business of Baseball Weblog A blog with a focus on the economics of the game.

Why I Like Baseball A Yankee fan writes about her favorite team.

Skilton's Baseball Links Links to numerous baseball sources.

Dan Lewis A blog about all sports.

Birds in the Belfry A site about the Orioles. Articles and research.

Only Baseball Matters A baseball blog by a John J. Perricone.

Jocksalot Lots of sports links.

Al's Ramblings A Brewer's blog.

Futility Infielder Jay Jaffe's baseball site. More than just a blog.

Mike's Baseball Rants Mike Carminati's baseball blog.

Aaron's Baseball Blog A general interest baseball blog.

Boy of Summer Travis Nelson on baseball.

Baseball Crank Dan McLaughlin's blog on baseball, the war and politics.

Bambino's Curse Edward Cossette's blog about the Red Sox.

Oakland Athletics Blog David Levens writes about the A's.

Ducksnorts Articles and Blog by Geoff.

Boston Sports Media Bruce Allen's roundup of the Boston Sports Media.

The Diamond Angle An online baseball magazine.

The Cub Reporter A Chicago Cubs blog.

Bronx Banter A baseball blog by Al Belth.

At Home Plate Articles by Jonathan Leshanski.

Dodger Thoughts Jon Weisman on the Dodgers.

The Clark & Addison Chronicle A Chicago Cubs web log.

Baseball Writing Joe Zibell's essays on baseball.

The Eddie Kranepool Society A Mets blog.

Mariners Weblog The Seattle Post-Intelligencer's weblog written by Shannon Fears

PortlandSoxFan.com A Red Sox blog from Portland, CT.

The Detroit Tigers Weblog Two Tigers fans and their take on the Motor City team.

A Rookie's Life The blog of Cleveland Indians' rookie Jody Gerut.

The Baseball Desert An Englishman living in France writes about the American game.

ChiSox Daily Mike Lubuda writes about the White Sox.

Shallow Center A blog mostly about the Phillies.

The House that Dewey Built Jeff Kuhn writes about the Red Sox.

SethSpeaks.net A blog by a Twins fan.

Frank's Field of Dreams News about Asian players in the United States.

Jay's Giants Blog William Jay blogging about the Giants.

Baseball Savant Cutting edge baseball news and analysis updated everyday from all aspects of the greatest show on dirt!

Athletics Nation Blogging about the A's.

Red Reporter JD Arney writes about the Reds.

Dominican Players Raul Tavares writes about players from his home country.

The Pearly Gates An Anaheim Angels Blog.

Red Sox Haven Randy Booth on baseball.

Tigers Weblog The Detroit News weblog on the Tigers, written by Tom Gage.

Management by Baseball Jeff Angus writes on how business can learn from baseball.

The View From the Bleachers A Chicago Cubs blog.

Cubs Now! Brian Hipp on the Cubs.

Honest Wagner A Pittsburgh Pirates weblog.

All-Baseball.com A collection of excellent baseball weblogs.

Soxaholix A comic strip blog about the Red Sox.

Most Valuable Network Blogging all 30 teams.

Baseball, Etcetera Andrew Godfrey's baseball blog.

Most Valuable Network, Astros Lisa Gray and others write about the Astros.

fenwayfanatics.com A Boston Red Sox blog.

Balls, Sticks & Stuff A sports blog with an emphasis on baseball.

Phillies Nation Brian Michael writes about the Phillies.

Batgirl Less stats, more sass.

Sabernomics Economic thinking about baseball.

Fire Brand of the American League A blog about the Red Sox.

Ivy Chat Chicago Cubs and other rants.

Baseball Evolution A group website writing about baseball.

The Cubdom.com Byron Clarke blogs about the Cubs.

Red Sox Stats Sabermetric numbers for the Red Sox system.

DRays Bay A blog devoted to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

Baseball Analysts Rich Lederer and Bryan Smith combine their baseball expertise into a single site.

Over the Monster A Red Sox blog by Randy Booth.

Viva el Birdos Ghosts of the St. Louis Cardinals past, present, and future.

Black Sox Blog A look at the current and historical teams of the South Side of Chicago.

Redleg Nation A group blog about the Cincinnati Reds.

Barry's Journal Barry Bonds' web log.

Hardball Dollars Keeping track of major league salaries.

Clem's Baseball and it's "Green Cathedrals" The resource for baseball stadiums on the web.

The Baseball Zealot Looking at the game of baseball from all sides of the spectrum .

Was Watching Laconic commentary from a Yankeeland zealot.

Bleed Cubbie Blue A Chicago Cubs blog.

Beaneball A's baseball from the heart of New York City.

The Writers A collection of sports writers express their opinions.

Yard Work What the Baseball Tonight crew would write if it could.

United States of Baseball Peter Handrinos' baseball columns.

Beer Leaguer Alternative veiwpoints on the Philadelphia Phillies.

Red Sox Connection Links to everything Red Sox.

Baseball Pilgrimages Stories of visits to baseball parks.

Fangraphs Multi-year charts of player stats.

Roto Authority Unique fantasy baseball information.

Yanksfan vs. Soxfan A Yankees fan and a Red Sox fan battle it out in the blogosphere.

Sawxblog.com A Red Sox fan writes about the home town team.

Oriole Magic An MVN blog about the Orioles.

The Baltimore Chop Joseph Jackson on the Orioles.

Lookout Landing A Seattle Mariners blog.

Sons of Bart Brush A blog about the Harvard baseball team.

Base Blogging A resource for sports and baseball bloggers.

Three True Outcomes A group blog by on major league baseball.

Cardinals Diaspora A blog for Cardinals fans living away from St. Louis.

Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? A Pittsburgh fan chronicles life in the Grand Canyon.

Brew Crew Ball A blog about the Milwaukee Brewers.

Getting Paid to Watch Posts by a former trainer for the NY Mets.

The Gas House Gang An historical St. Louis Cardinals Blog.

6-4-2 An Angels/Dodgers double play blog.

El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox Baseball and the Red Sox.

Baseball Etc

Tiger Tales A Detroit Tigers web log.

The Baseball Card Blog A blog about baseball cards.

Sox1Fan A Red Sox blog.

Out of Left Field Another Red Sox blog.

New York Yankees Update A Yankees blog with lots of photos.

Liberty Ball A current and historical Phillies blog.

Crawfish Boxes A Houston Astros blog.

MLB Rumors Clearinghouse News from around the majors.

Roar From 34 A group blog about the Orioles.

Blogging Baseball All-time baseball highlights and real-time commentary.

Rubber Arm A group blog about major league baseball.

Fenway Nation More news about the Red Sox.

Rays of Light A Devil Rays blog.

Fantasy Baseball Chronicle Information for fantasy players.

American Legends A sports blog.

Duffy's Cliff An interactive Red Sox site, featuring a lexicon of the Red Sox.

Oriole Post - The World of Baseball and Beyond An Orioles blog.

DRays Bay A Devil Rays blog.

Mets Heads A blog about the New York Mets.

The Soul of Baseball Joe Posnanski promotes his book on Buck O'Neil and blogs about baseball.

My Baseball Bias A blog about East Coast baseball.

Sports Business Radio Articles and talk about the business of sports.

The Game of Baseball A blog about Major League Baseball.

Baseball Hot Corner Opinionated observations for the thinking fan.

FantasyDope.com Fantasy baseball news.

Peter's Red Sox Forever A Red Sox blog.

Sox Nest Commentary on the Red Sox.

The Big Oz A Florida Marlins blog.

Baseball Reflections Where old school baseball meets sabermetrics.

The Sommer Frieze A Yankees blog.

Fenway Nation A Red Sox fan site.

In-Between Hops A Milwaukee Brewers blog.

Right Field Bleachers Another Milwaukee Brewers blog.

On Baseball and the Reds Another Cincinnati Reds blog.

Crooked Pitch A fantasy baseball blog.

Bless You Boys A Detroit Tigers blog.

Cubs f/x Pitch f/x and the Chicago Cubs.

The Hot Corner

Eephus Pitch Tossing pure junk about New York baseball since 2006.

It Is High, It Is Far, It Is Caught A tribute to John Sterling.

Baseball GB Baseball from a British perspective.

Nick and Nick's Twins Blog A couple of Nicks write on the Twins.

SkyKing162 Baseball with a hint of lime.

Center Field A Red Sox blog.

Empyreal Environs Writing about the Red Sox.

Trophy League Planet Aggregating the baseball blogosphere.

Cardinals Best News Links Aggregating St. Louis Cardinals news.

Zell's Pinstripe Blog A Yankees Blog.

HSAC Blog Official Musings of the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective.

The Baseball Fix A general baseball blog.

MLB Roundup A baseball video blog.

Fantasy Dope Fantasy Baseball News.

The Cubs Brickyard Hilarious fake news.

Spitting Seeds A blog about Major League baseball.

Infield Chatter A blog covering all aspects of baseball.

Instapundit Politics and the law. This site inspired me to start blogging.

Wild Treasure Treasure hunts through the blogosphere.

San Diego Ticket Finder San Diego Ticket Information.

Prize Sports.net Baseball Collectibles.

Fantasy Sports R Us The #1 Fantasy Baseball Leagues site on the web.

RotoRank - Fantasy Baseball Draft Guides Customized For Any Fantasy Baseball League.