Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 21, 2007
Inexpensive Help

The Cleveland Indians signed Masahide Kobayashi to two-year contract on Tuesday.

Looking to strengthen the back end of their bullpen and add insurance for closer Joe Borowski, the Indians signed Japanese free agent Masahide Kobayashi to a US$6.25 million, two-year contract on Tuesday.

The deal includes a $3.25 million club option for 2010 with a $250,000 buyout.

Do the Indians really need another setup man? Their real weakness in the bullpen was at closer, where Borowski converted saves but with a very high ERA. There was an evening of luck there, however, as Borowski, in terms of strikeouts, walks and home runs pitched much better than his ERA, so he probably deserved the saves. Kobayashi may be insurance against Borowski's luck going totally bad in 2008. And at a bit over $3 million a year, there's not a loss if Masahide performs poorly.


Posted by David Pinto at 08:41 AM | Free Agents | TrackBack (0)
Comments

The success of relievers seems to be so unpredictable. There's a really good chance that one or more of their strong middle relievers falls off next year. With the depth of lineups in the AL, you can never have too many quality relievers.

Posted by: Tom at November 21, 2007 09:16 AM

Shapiro has a theory about closers, which is sort of a modified version of the Bill James bullpen theory: that the toughest outs of a ballgame aren't always in the ninth inning -- indeed, they are usually earlier -- and you need to use your best pitchers to get the toughest outs.

Hence, James suggested, you might want to use your closer in the seventh or eighth innings to get out of a tight spot, and let a lesser reliever get a clean slate in the ninth. The real-world problem is that players like to have defined roles: often, closers don't perform as well when they're asked to come in earlier (see Eric Gagne in Boston).

The Shapiro revision (also seen in Detroit) is to make your closer a cagey veteran with lesser stuff but nerves of steel. If you give a Borowski or a Todd Jones a clearly defined task (start the ninth inning and close out the game), he can usually handle it. Then you can use your livelier arms in the "bridge" innings, especially to deal with RISP situations.

As frustrating as it can be to watch a closer with a 5+ ERA, the truth is that he will be successful the vast majority of the time. Todd Jones blew eight saves this year; Jonathan Papelbon blew four. Is that difference worth the opportunity cost of using one of your best pitchers as the closer (in the rotation, Papelbon would be a vast improvement over the Sox' #5 starting options), or paying a Billy Wagner or a Mariano Rivera tens of millions of dollars?

Now, it's awfully nice to have a lights-out closer. It gives everyone great peace of mind. But is it truly the best allocation of resources? Shapiro and Dombrowski are proving that there's another way.

Posted by: jvwalt at November 21, 2007 11:12 AM

JWalt,

That's a really great point. I suppose it breaks down when your middle relievers want to get paid like closers.

Posted by: David Pinto at November 21, 2007 11:53 AM

David: I suppose Shapiro believes that middle relievers are a highly fungible commodity, and that bullpens are constantly under construction. As Tom commented above, most relievers are intermittently effective. Guys like Rivera and Hoffman are exceptions; there are a lot more relievers who are really good for a year or two, and then lose their edge (or get an injury from overuse).

In other words... by the time a Rafael Perez is ready to cash in, he's either washed up, or you let someone else give him the big payday. A lot of teams are perfectly willing to get a couple good years out of a young reliever and then let him walk -- having confidence that their minor-league system and major-league coaches will produce suitable replacements.

On the other hand, some teams are happy to vastly overpay for "proven" relievers, the Scott Linebrinks of the world. We seem to have two distinct theories of bullpen construction, so I guess we'll see how it plays out in coming years.

Posted by: jvwalt at November 21, 2007 03:32 PM

They're hoping for a little Oki- Dokey magic - who knows - maybe more of these guys will be unhittable in the majors - but I'm guessing not

Posted by: Bandit at November 23, 2007 07:43 AM
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