Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 05, 2007
Too Young?

David O'Brien notes that the Braves have a centerfield prospect tearing up the Arizona fall league after a great season at A-Ball. However, O'Brien has a worry:

He just turned 21 and hasn't played above the A-ball level, but Jordan Schafer is showing folks that he could be ready for the majors sooner than later -- and perhaps sooner than most of us expected.

...

Could Schafer replicate Escobar's rapid rise to the bigs? Well, yes, you can't rule anything out in this day and age, when even mid- and large-payrolled teams are relying more than ever on their homegrown talent (see: Boston Red Sox and Jacoby Ellsbury, 24; Jon Lester, 23; Dustin Pedroia, 24).

Still, it seems far more likely (at least to me) that 24-year-old Braves prospect Brent Lillibridge would fit that bill, if the Braves decide to move him from the shortstop position he's played in the minors to center field, where he played as a college freshman in 2003.

He's three years older than Schafer, who just turned 21 in September. That's really, really young for an every-day position player to be considered for major league duty, especially with no experience above A-ball. I just can't see the Braves seriously considering Schafer as an option to replace Andruw Jones this spring, despite the stunning success Schafer's had during 2007.

I'm sorry, how old was Andruw Jones when he took over in centerfield? How old was Ken Griffey, Jr., another player under consideration to fill the hole left by Andruw? Twenty one is not too young to become a regular major league player. In fact, becoming a regular at that age or younger is a leading indicator of career greatness. If Schafer can handle the position, let him play.


Posted by David Pinto at 07:18 PM | Players | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Agreed! Let him play! Let him follow in the footsteps (in terms of ascension) of Furcal, Andruw, Escobar and Francouer! And that's just recent examples from the Braves organization.

Posted by: dan at November 5, 2007 07:44 PM

David is right. Acording to my rough Access query building skills, 56 players (batters only) played 140 games they year they turned 21 (meaning they were at least good enough to hold a starting job).

By my rough count, 18 of them (almost one third!!) are in the Hall of Fame, and 5 or so more are going to be.

Playing when you are 21 is not just a leading indicator of career greatness. It's a really, really, really good leading indicator of career greatness.

140+ G @ age 21
Albert Pujols
Robin Yount
Miguel Cabrera
Ken Hubbs
Eddie Murray
Andruw Jones
Roberto Alomar
Chris Speier
Buddy Lewis
Sherry Magee
Ken Griffey Jr.
Ron Santo
Jim Fregosi
Johnny Bench
Bob Bailey
Vada Pinson
Ed Kranepool
Garry Templeton
Hank Aaron
Frank Robinson
Al Kaline
Arky Vaughan
Joe Cassidy
Travis Jackson
Ty Cobb
Lloyd Waner
Ozzie Guillen
Red Kress
Tony Conigliaro
Joe Vosmik
Ted Williams
Mel Ott
Elbie Fletcher
Claudell Washington
Orlando Cepeda
Bill Mazeroski
Jimmy Sheckard
Nelson Norman
Alex Rodriguez
Brooks Robinson
Eddie Mathews
Rogers Hornsby
Gary Carter
Butch Wynegar
Frank Snyder
Tris Speaker
Jose Guillen
Dick Kokos
Whitey Witt
Alan Trammell
Dick Hoblitzel
Mickey Mantle
Del Ennis
Harold Baines
Freddie Lindstrom
Sibby Sisti

Posted by: Scott Segrin at November 5, 2007 08:53 PM

I think the key is that 21 is too young IF YOU HAVEN'T PLAYED ABOVE A BALL. Not that it's too young period. Obviously many of the greatest players were regulars when they were young. That's because they were ridiculously talented and cruised through their systems. But asking a 21 year-old to jump from A Ball to the bigs is crazy.

Posted by: amos at November 5, 2007 11:28 PM

Schafer has never had the tools that Andruw or Ken Griffy Jr. had. He's good, but I think putting him in that category is a bit premature. Most people think he can be a perennial .300/20/20 guy, which, don't get me wrong, isn't chopped liver.

But that's nothing like Griffy's numbers, and while he's good defensively, he's not in Andruw's class at all. (Then again, there's like two guys who are from a historical perspective.)

Regardless, I think O'Brien's larger concern is with the lack of ABs above A-ball. What will likely happen with Schafer is a mid-season callup after he shows he can hit AA pitching. You'll recall that neither Andruw or Jeff Francoeur were placed in a starting ML role at the beginning of their first season. Both were called up after showing too much talent in the low-minors to be ignored. No reason for the Braves to change track at this point.

Posted by: mraver at November 5, 2007 11:32 PM

The Arizona Fall League has become a factory for MLB rookies lately. The fact that Schafer is putting up the numbers he is should not be ignored. Perhaps the reason that he has not played above A ball is not because of his own lack of talent, but of the Braves misevaluation of it. His stats at Rome the first half of last year (1.077 OPS) seem to be those of someone who was promotable to AA.

Posted by: Scott Segrin at November 6, 2007 07:36 AM

Furcal made the jump from A ball in 1999 to win the 2000 rookie of the year. (22 years old. At the time, thought to be 19.)

Pujols made the jump from A ball in 2000 to win the 2001 rookie of the year. (21 years old.)

That's not to say Schafer will mirror either of those players. But I don't think you can make a definitive statement such as "21 is too young" or "no one can make the jump from A ball to the majors". Especially when the statement is made in November. Let him have his chance to win the job like Furcal did.

My only fear is that Bobby Cox will bring in some retread veteran to "hold down" the position instead of giving Schafer (or Lillebridge) valuable learning experience, if they're ready.

Posted by: dan at November 6, 2007 08:23 AM
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