October 23, 2007
No Rotations
Josh Beckett starts game one for the Red Sox at Fenway, but Boston has not gone beyond that yet:
Among the things for Francona & Co. to consider in the days ahead: Where, if anywhere, to slot knuckleballer Tim Wakefield in the rotation. If they weren't to hand him the ball for Game 2 at Fenway Thursday night, would they want him to serve up his soft tosses in Denver, where the thin air of the Mile High City might prove too compliant to his pitches? A knuckleball that doesn't dance too often ends up dancing with the stars.
The same sort of worry goes along with Matsuzaka. A number of Daisuke's pitches depend on the ability to break, something that's tougher to do in thin air. A game two starters pitches twice at home. Boston needs to decide if Wakefield or Matsuzaka has the better chance of success at Coors.
Well, everyone's pitches move less in Coors, right? But I think since Wakefield's don't require spin - which is to say, don't require the seams to push off of the air - he might fare better in Coors.
If I know the Sox, I bet they're constructing wind tunnel tests right now to see how a knuckleball moves at altitude. I think that would be a smart move!
I just remembered too- Wakefield prides himself on his hitting (as does Beckett, actually). I'd bet anything Wakefield starts in Coors, unless his shoulder is really bothering him.
Mike,
The knuckle ball does require spin, just very slow spin. That slow spin sets up changing areas of pressure around the ball, which is why it dances. With less air molecules around, I would think high altitude would make the ball move less.
Yeah, I'd say that a knuckler counts a lot more on air pressure than other pitches for its effectiveness. And I doubt wind tunnel testing would be very informative, since small differences in the environment can make such large differences in how the knuckleball moves.
Using Wakefield at Coors is very risky -- not to say it definitely won't work but just that it's so unpredictable. I feel sure Francona will not slot Wake to start there.
Wakefield has never pitched in Coors, but he has pitched at Mile High Stadium, back when he was still with the Pirates (1993):
9.2 IP
9.31 ERA
2.50 WHIP
.386/.460/.636 in 51 PA's against.
4/6 K/BB
.410 BABIP
It sounds like they were hitting rockets off him. Probably because the knuckleball was flat, though he did struggle for the whole season that year.
He also, of course, didn't have the wisdom accrued from a 15-year major league career then.
Also, Wakefield is in general a very 'hit or miss' pitcher. Some days he seems to be unhittable; others he seems to be throwing batting practice. So such a small sample (in Mile High) is probably worthless (even though it supports the view I was advocating).
Knucklers at Coors:
Steve Sparks - 7.2 IP, 12.91 ERA, 5K
Tom Candiotti - 8 IP, 7.88 ERA, 6 K
I believe that Atlanta Fulton-County stadium had the highest elevation of any major league park before Mile High and then Coors Field, and Niekro had pretty good success there for a lot of years...
I believe that Atlanta Fulton-County stadium had the highest elevation of any major league park before Mile High and then Coors Field, and Niekro had pretty good success there for a lot of years...
That would actually be Chase Field in Phoenix, where Wakefield has never pitched... but as far as I know, Atlanta would be next.
ADDING:
Phoenix, which of course, got its team after Colorado, but the point stands that there's limited data on how extreme altitude affects knuckleballs, and Phoenix isn't TOO much higher than Atlanta in elevation anyway.
Looks like Wakefield's shoulder will keep him off the WS roster anyway... so Beckett-Schilling-Daisuke-Lester?