Baseball Musings: Loading the Bases

October 02, 2007

Loading the Bases

In a comment to this post, a reader asks:

With the game tied 8-8 and the winning run on third (Holliday) and no outs, Bud Black elects to walk Todd Helton (good move in my opinion).
Sitting at home, watching the game on TV, I fully expect Black to order an IBB to Carroll to load the bases and set up a force at home/GBDP. With Hawpe (who was 0-3 and had left 5 on base in the game) and Spillbroghs (0-4 with 7 LOBs) coming up behind Carroll, isn't that the more logical strategy??

Let's say that Carroll hits a ground ball--the only thing that the drawn in infield can do is look Holliday back to third and go to first. Then you would have to walk Hawpe and pitch to Spillbroughs.

I know that we can all second guess Black's decision, but that just seemed odd to me....

It didn't occur to me at the time. Carroll is not a good hitter. Maybe Black thought Hoffman could strike him out. Hawpe was coming up next, who is a much more dangerous hitter. My guess is he would have walked Hawpe at that point and pitched to whoever was going to pinch hit for the pitcher, since Spilborghes was out of the game on a double switch. If you walk Carroll, you have to pitch to Hawpe. I'm assuming Black thought there was a good chance of getting Jamie without allowing a run, then you walk Hawpe to set up the double play. A good throw by Giles and Black looks like a genius.

Posted by David Pinto at 12:06 PM | Games | TrackBack (0)

Comments

I authored the original post referenced in this topic.

I had to go back to the box score this morning to see who was hitting after Hawpe, and forgot about the double switch that took Spillbroughs out of the game.

In retrospect, Black may have been playing the lefty-righty percentages. Carroll is a right handed hitter, while Hawpe and Koshansky are both lefties.

But here is an odd fact--Carroll is 1-4 lifetime versus Hoffman (a single), while Hawpe is 1-11 (a double and 5 Ks), and Koshansky was a late season call up from AAA Colorado Springs with a .083 BA and had struck out in his only other AB.

Again, I don't get paid to make these kinds of decisions, but based on all of the factors, I think Black made a big mistake by pitching to Carroll instead of walking him to load the bases and taking his chances with Hawpe and Koshansky.

Posted by: Greg at October 2, 2007 03:07 PM

FYI, it would not have been Koshansky hitting as he did not enter the game after pinch hitting for Herges earlier in the game.

It would have been a PH, but the six remaining bench players available were a collective 1-12 lifetime versus Hoffman. The only hit off Hoffman by this bunch was a home run by Clint Barnes, and he only had six total ABs total in the entire month of September.

Bottom line, I still think Black made a bad decision.

Posted by: Greg at October 2, 2007 03:21 PM

The fact of the matter is that there were no outs and the winning run was ninety feet away. Obviously a hit wins the game, but even a groundout or flyout could win it as well. I thought setting up the force and potential double play was the defensive move to make there. Oherwise you are depending on strikeouts alone...

Posted by: Mr. Furious at October 2, 2007 03:35 PM

Posted by: Mr. Furious at October 2, 2007 03:36 PM

allof this is well and good, but in my opinion the home plate ump blew the whole thing... on replay it sure looked like Barrett had the plate blocked and the baserunner overslid the plate.. but we have no instant replay in baseball, thank Goodness, and the game was over.. did anyone else see and agree with this..??

Posted by: sosidegeorge at October 2, 2007 05:47 PM

I have to wonder how much tossing an intentional walk messes with a pitcher's rhythm, or muscle memory, or whatever you want to call it. Maybe somebody could take a look at how a pitcher performs on the next batter after an IBB. With two consecutive IBBs, I could imagine the effect would be greater. Or maybe pitchers can just turn it on and turn it off.

Posted by: Adam Villani at October 2, 2007 06:20 PM

I partially agree with George above. Barrett kept the runner off the plate but dropped the ball. Had Barrett immediately picked up the ball, he could have tagged the slightly dazed runner in the dirt. Not sure if ump made an initial call, but if he sees no touch of plate and no tag, he is not supposed to make a call until either runner or catcher properly reacts. Barrett just walked away.

Posted by: Bob S at October 2, 2007 08:56 PM

Barrett didn't walk away. He picked up the ball and moved toward Holliday, but the ump signaled safe.

Posted by: Richard at October 2, 2007 10:12 PM

Since we can't rerun the play, this makes for great and endless argument. If Carroll's line drive is a little more towards the right field line, Holliday trots home on a game-winning single and Black looks like an idiot.

Generally, I don't like loading the bases on an IBB because it makes the pitcher nervous about pitching to the corners of the zone. Sure enough, Carroll got a good pitch to hit, though Hoffman did not have great control in the inning, anyway. Which in turn might have influenced Black's decision not to load the bases.

The really offbeat decision would have been to pull Hoffman. That's actually what one of the Rockies' radio announcers at first thought Black was going to do when he went out to the mound.

I don't know if anybody was warming up, but maybe they should have been. It was only the entire season on the line. Anybody could see from the first at-bat (Matsui) that Hoffman was getting the ball up and not spotting his pitches well, and his velocity was not enough to make the change as effective as usual.

Bottom line is that the Padres were in the deepest with Holliday on third and nobody out and a pitcher having a very bad night. I don't know if anything Black might have done would have worked.

Posted by: Casey Abell at October 3, 2007 09:46 AM

Well, I fully expected the walk to Carroll as well. Has anyone else c0nsidered the idea of leaving Heath Bell in until he encountered trouble? He looked like Koufax out there - painting the corners and a great fastball that seemed baffling. Did Bud make the Buckner decision giving Trevor a chance to be there at the end and for redemption after Little Anthony beat him on Saturday?

Posted by: Steve at October 3, 2007 10:30 PM

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