September 16, 2007
A-Rod Odds
The odds of Alex Rodriguez passing Maris are getting longer every day. It looks like he'll only get about sixty two more plate appearances, and with his HR/PA at .08 for the season, the probability of ten more home runs is now just .025, or about 1 in 40. Not low enough to quite count him out, but nothing I'd want to wager on at this point.
Posted by David Pinto at
09:43 AM
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ARod's a streak hitter, and he'll be facing a larger number of untried pitchers here in September than is normal for the rest of the season. I'd put his chances slightly higher than you've got him at, just on the theory he might get hot just as he hits a string of young gopher ball prone pitchers in the next week or so.