September 06, 2007
Alex Odds
Alex Rodriguez still has a small chance at breaking Roger Maris' American League home run record. After hitting two home runs last night, Alex needs fourteen long balls to reach sixty two. Based on his performance this year, the probability of Alex hitting a home run in any given plate appearance is .0783 (48/613). He averages 4.44 PA per game, so with twenty two games left, he should get another 98 plate appearances. The probability of his hitting fourteen home runs in those 98 PA is 0.0205, or about 2%. The odds are double that for him at least tying Maris.
Posted by David Pinto at
07:59 AM
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