Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
August 06, 2007
Losing Soriano

The Cubs lose Alfonso Soriano for at least two weeks.

"How devastating. I mean, leadoff hitter, valuable guy, leads my team in home runs, he's got a lot of energy," Cubs manager Lou Piniella said.

"It's going to be a tough loss."

Piniella said he didn't know what the Cubs would do to fill the hole and would discuss potential moves with general manager Jim Hendry. The Cubs are one game behind Milwaukee in the NL Central.

Soriano's slugging percentage of .511 was somewhat wasted in the leadoff spot. The seven, eight and nine slots in the Cubs lineup produced OBAs of .293, .276 and .235. So it's not surprising that 14 of Soriano's 18 home runs were solo shots. But this also means he might not be that difficult to replace. A high OBA hitter in the lead off slot could make up for Soriano's power by being on a lot more to be driven in. Someone like DeRosa or Fontenot will extend the offensive context of the whole team, and give Lee and Ramirez more opportunities to drive in runs. It's an injury the Cubs should be able to play through, especially if it takes just two weeks to heal.


Posted by David Pinto at 08:45 AM | Injuries | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Did you see him pull up? 4 weeks looks light, if they rush him back he's not likely to play at a high level. Big trouble in Chitown. Bigger story, Mets take 2 road series against decent competition.

Posted by: abe at August 6, 2007 09:57 AM

I saw the press conference and I don't think Piniella actually called it devastating. A reporter asked how devastating it was to lose Soriano. And Piniella started his reply with, "How devastating?". He did go on to state all the great things Soriano does, but I don't think he would use the word devastating to describe it.

Posted by: Mike L. at August 6, 2007 11:41 AM

It is nice to have Felix Pie and Eric Patterson available for a call-up for the duration of Soriano's absence. PECOTA loves both of those players, so assuming they can play to their projection this injury could end up as a blessing in disguise for Chicago. Also, the Cubs play pretty much no one (other than COL) the next month, so they should be able to navigate this without much problem.

Posted by: SS at August 6, 2007 12:51 PM

I was always very, very skeptical about Soriano batting leadoff. But Steve Stone, who I trust very much, made a very compelling argument to him staying there, one that I believe in now.

The thing is, Soriano is as close to a pure fastball hitter as there is in the game. He hits .316 against fastballs, but only .212 against curves, .257 against sliders, and .263 against changeups.

Because of this, in his career, he has always hit much better with the bases empty, when a hitter sees more fastballs, than with runners on, when he's likely to see more off-speed offerings.

Over the years, Soriano has compiled a .883 OPS in the leaddoff spot, a .762 OPS batting third (630 AB's), and a .823 OPS batting fifth (583 AB's). Each of those is enough of a sample size to be reliable.

As much as I hate to admit it, I think there's some credence to the thought that Soriano sees many more fastballs as a leadoff hitter, and is much better there because of it.

Posted by: Derek Nelson at August 6, 2007 01:44 PM

"[T]he Cubs play pretty much no one (other than COL) the next month, so they should be able to navigate this without much problem."

That's true, but more important is the fact that through 8/30 the Cubs and Brewers play exactly the same schedule, swapping teams mid-week like they have recently. Until they play each other at Wrigley 8/28-8/30.

Soriano going down MUST REDUCE the chance for the Cubs to catch the Brewers during this stretch. Cub fans have to hope they aren't all-but-eliminated before September.

Posted by: Mark at August 6, 2007 03:27 PM

Maybe they need to have another dugout fight to pick them up.

Posted by: The Phantom at August 6, 2007 06:17 PM

Exactly!

This time: Zambrano vs the hated water cooler!

Posted by: Mark at August 6, 2007 10:02 PM
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