July 10, 2007
Mid-Season Win Shares
The Hardball Times posted their list of win shares through the All-Star break. I'm surprised that Vlad Guerrero leads the majors, and that Alex Rodriguez ranks fifth. I realize part of that difference is the difference in won-loss records between the teams; the Angels won more games, so they have more win shares to go around. Still, at this point, how many of you would vote for Vlad over A-Rod for MVP? You can compare the two of them here, since their OBAs are very close. They have the same number of hits and walks, but Alex hits many more home runs and even steals better. Vlad does have better clutch numbers, however, (6.8 to 3.8) which is used in the Runs Created calculation. Three win shares seems to big a gap to me, however.
Posted by David Pinto at
10:46 AM
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Interesting note, Coco Crisp (BOS) leads majors in WS for fielding. He's had a great year, but this was a little surprising.
Put it this way, if the Yanks finish 10 out and around .500, A-Rod won't win the MVP as long as there are strong contenders from playoff teams such as Magglio and Vlad.
A-Rod's pace has slowed (at least in HRs) from historic to merely typical League leader in this era. Not good enough for the hardware on a non-playoff team.
It's not faiir to him that this career year comes in a year the Yanks are underachieving as a team, but it will help cement the non-clutch rep he has.
Nor should he win the MVP if the Yankees continue their pace. The MVP race last year didn't really consider Ortiz due to the breakdown for the Sox last year.
Without A-Rod, the Yanks wouldn't even be close to the wild card slot. If we assume 10 less WS's for whatever player the Yanks would have replacing A-Rod, the Yankees would be 32-54, placing them 1.5 GB's of Tampa and in last place.
Yet, if Vlad were replaced by someone with 10 less WS's, the Angels would still be 43-45, and putting them only 6 GB's of Seattle...still a decent spot at the break.
That in itself, would make me vote for A-Rod because A-Rod's keeping the Yankees in the hunt even if they don't make it. He gives them a chance. He's their difference maker so far.
A-Rod (19), Jeter (15), and Posada (11), make up 45 of the Yankees WS's...and the Yanks only have 42 wins. Huh? Maybe I don't understand WS's as much as I thought I did.
Interesting MVP discussion but let's stop pretending WS's are a meaningful stat.
David,
The fact that the Angels have more wins than the Yankees means nothing for their Win Shares totals. However, the key difference is that the Yankees are underperforming their Pythagorean record by SEVEN games, and the Angels are overperforming theirs by FOUR games. That's an eleven-game difference that gets factored into the calculations. Huge.
Also, I haven't looked at this, but I'm pretty sure that the Yankees' actual runs scored are lower than their total team Runs Created, which would also have a negative impact on A-Rod's Win Shares.