Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
June 13, 2007
Predicting the Future

I find it interesting that Melky Cabrera engenders so much debate. My good friend Jim Storer called me earlier this season to basically tell me, "I told you so," about Melky's poor performance. You can see the debate in the comments to this positive post about Cabrera. My feeling is, someone who posted a .360 OBA at age 21 should be taken seriously. Playing often and well at an early age is an indicator of future success. For example, here's a list of everyone in major league history who posted an OBA of between .355 and .365 at age 21, with at least 400 at bats:

NameOBA
Adrian Beltre 0.360
Jerry Browne 0.358
Melky Cabrera 0.360
Gary Carter 0.360
Orlando Cepeda 0.355
Willie Randolph 0.356
Ron Santo 0.362
Lou Whitaker 0.361

That's a pretty good list. If Cabrera turns out to be the Governor, he'll be a decently useful player. If he turns out to be Randolph, the Yankees will be very happy. I don't think Cabrera should be dismissed out of hand.


Posted by David Pinto at 04:08 PM | Players | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Impressive list, recently, Damon virtually conceded him the FT CF job, saying that he switched positions in KC with the emergence of Beltran and that Melky is doing things defensively(throw) that he can't do. I don't think he will be a star but he has allready proved more than useful.

Posted by: Mark at June 13, 2007 06:44 PM

I don't understand why you are limiting this to .360 and less. Plenty of 19/20/21 yr old players exceeded .360.

Posted by: Bob S at June 13, 2007 09:23 PM

I'd like to know what 21yo players with 400+ had better than .365

Posted by: Robb at June 13, 2007 09:44 PM

Try Ted Williams at age 20 in 1939 (became 21 Aug 30) with 565 AB & .436 pct.

Posted by: Bob S at June 15, 2007 11:18 PM

Also try Willie Mays in 1951 with .356 pct and over 400 AB at age 20.

Posted by: Bob S at June 15, 2007 11:34 PM

For a 3rd, try Mel Ott at 19 435 AB & .397 Pct and at 20 545 AB and .449 pct.
For anyone interested in OBA look up Ferris Fain, a non-slugger (but back to back bat championships 1951/52) with 9 seasons and a career OBA of .424 with his lowest year OBA of .399.

Posted by: Bob S at June 15, 2007 11:50 PM

Another is Hal Trosky at age 21 625 AB & .388OBA

Posted by: Bob S at June 16, 2007 12:02 AM

Most likely because if he add those players he's going to make Melky look like a potential hall of famer down the road... which he' not. and he meantioned the two worset player on that list as comp too. (the governor was mostly a utility guy, and Randolf had limited power but crazy walk ability. ) those are more fair comp to Melky unless he start putting up some rigged home runs on the board.

Posted by: RollingWave at July 5, 2007 09:53 PM
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