June 13, 2007
Youth to the Top
The Red Sox flipped Dustin Pedroia and Julio Lugo in the lineup last night, making the rookie second baseman the leadoff hitter:
You need only check one column on the stat sheet to understand why the move was made: Pedroia had an on-base percentage of .399, third on the team behind Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz. Lugo was at .274 (.276 in the leadoff spot, tied with Rocco Baldelli of the Devil Rays for worst leadoff OBP in the AL). Contrast that to Hanley Ramirez, the former Sox prospect who began the night with a .425 OBP while batting leadoff for the Marlins.
Some teams wind up with a position that they just can't fill correctly. The Mets were famous for a long time for not being able to find a steady third baseman. The Mariners tried a new left fielder every year. Now the Red Sox keeping rotating in a new shortstop every season. Lugo is way off his career averages (which really aren't leadoff quality), so the youngster gets the chance.
Correction: Mets third basemen, not first basemen.
Posted by David Pinto at
08:03 AM
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If they really wanted to optimize the lineup, they'd put Lugo down at the bottom of the order. What's the difference between batting first and second for the rest of the year? Likely 15 extra plate appearances for the remainder of the season. So Pedroia will get on base... twice more than Lugo would have in that spot. At best. (Likely only once more since Lugo's true OBP is much closer to .340 or so, I'd bet). I'd go:
Pedroia
Drew
Ortiz
Manny
Youkilis
Lowell
Varitek
Coco
Lugo
Pedroia and Drew don't have much power, but they do get on. Drew seems to not hit into too many double plays, though this is totally based on watching and not stats. I'd bat Coco and Lugo at the end, as they've been real good at getting over to second without getting caught stealing... so they'll often be in scoring position for the top of the lineup.
Speaking of changes to the Sawx lineup, at what point do they give up on Coco Chanel?
He has been playing an uncharacteristically slick cf, but the hitting . . .
Surely Murphy or Ellsbury would be an improvement?
(Mind you, as a Yankee fan, I hope he remains their cf indefinitely, just as I hope they keep Facey McFaceMask as their catcher all through his dotage as a hitter . . .)
In Mets lore the position they could never fill for the long-term was actually third base. Although probably if you looked at the lists of who played first and who played third for them over the decades, there wouldn't be much difference.
The Curse of Nomar, eh? Not only have the Sox failed to find a lasting solution at SS, they've gone through some expensive, high-profile options. It's not like they're desperately plugging in the has-beens, never-wases, and quad-A players of the world. They've had a series of quality major-league regulars who, for some reason, have been unable to meet expectations in Boston.
As for leadoff: I realize that Youkilis seems to have outgrown the role, but I'd strongly consider him at the top with Pedroia second. Youk would be a Boggs-type leadoff hitter, with a .400 OBA, doubles power, and even better speed than Chicken Man.
This assumes that Drew can regain his form and be an adequate #5 hitter... but if he can't, the Sox have a much bigger problem than mere lineup selection.
Youkilis
Ramirez
Lowell
Ortiz
Varitek
Drew
Pedroia
Crisp
Lugo
they shouldn't have given up on renteria so quickly.