Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
May 29, 2007
Predicting the Record

CBSSportsline reports on Baseball Prospectus' efforts to predict when Barry Bonds breaks Hank Aaron's home run record.

Bonds' recent 14-game homerless drought increased his chances of failing to set the record this season from 5.5 percent to 8.9 percent. But by hitting No. 746 on Sunday against Colorado, Bonds now has just a 7.4 percent chance of falling short, according to Davenport's calculations.

Heading into Tuesday night's against the New York Mets, the most likely date for the record breaker is now on June 29 in a home game against Arizona, with a 3.6 percent chance. Not that Davenport is suggesting anyone rush out to buy a ticket to that game expecting a record-breaker.


Posted by David Pinto at 05:52 PM | Records | TrackBack (0)
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