May 28, 2007
Rating Andruw
J.C. Bradbury writes a counter-argument to Jayson Stark's assessment that Andruw Jones is overrated. J.C. argues that Andruw's defense is still very good, despite what the scouts say. Here's Stark on Andruw:
Then an old scout friend said the words that led me here: "I'll tell you the guy who isn't the player people think he is anymore -- Andruw Jones." Again, my first instinct was: no way. Then I took a closer look. And couldn't believe what I learned.
I'd like to agree with Bradbuy, but turn Stark's argument on its head. I'd argue that Jones was overrated until recently. Look at Andruw's similarity scores by age. From age 21 to age 25, he's Ruben Sierra. Now, in my mind, when you look up "overrated" in the dictionary, you find a picture of Sierra. Since that age, Andruw matched more closely to Johnny Bench and Frank Robinson. So it seems to me Andruw was overrated early in his career, but the last few season he's lived up to his potential.
Posted by David Pinto at
01:18 PM
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You're taking the side that Jones is overrated because the player he was most 'similar' to was also overrated? That fails a logic test in my opinion.
Plus I don't remember anyone claiming Jones is on the level of Mantle, Mays, Cobb, etc., as Starks tosses out there.
Luckily Starks has those unnamed scouts available to him for corroboration.
Gee, he's always willing to give Rich Donnelly attribution, why not now?
BTW, I don't think Jones is a god, just a very good power hitting CF with very good defense.
Remember, David, that early in his career (like, ages 21-25) Sierra was on a Hall of Fame path. He may well be a player whose career was ruined by steroids, because Sierra was a guy who bulked up with weights, and all of a sudden couldn't play anymore.
Basura, I agree on all counts *except* I don't think David P. has failed the logic test.
If (a) Andruw was most similar to Ruben, and (b) Ruben was overrated, then all we really need is (c) that Andruw is more highly rated than Ruben, to draw the conclusion that Andruw is overrated. And (c) is pretty obvious so didn't need to be stated explicitly.
But that's picky, because I think the rest of what you said is right on.
He didn't say Jones is a "bad" defensive player, just not as good as he used to be. That seems accurate. At one time, Andruw Jones was frequently compared to Willy Mays as the one of the best centerfielders ever. (I heard this numerous times in the late 90's-early 2000's, from broadcasters or in quotes from opposing managers.) If you look at PMR or Zone Rating, Andruw Jones is no longer the best defensive CFer. He is still good, but behind 10 or so CFers, according to PMR, and fifth on the ZR list, according to Hardball Times stats. Whether that equates to "overrated" or not...well, that is just subjective.
I thought he was mainly speaking to the slip in his defensive abilities. It made me vomit to hear Bobby Cox compare him to Mays defensively early in his career and then see Jones drop routine flys with his hot dogging. At least Mays waited until he was near forty to slip defensively.
Jones hitting mechanics have slipped to somwhere around atrocius. He has beer league softball, swing for the fences approach, it seems lately.
His body type has changed considerably since he broke in, going from athletic when he hit the homerun vs. Yanks in WS to blocky/borderline out of shape build lately. That could account for some of the slippage defensively.