Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
May 11, 2007
Predicting Barry

Barry Bonds hit eleven home runs in 34 Giants games. He needs eleven more, which should take another 34 games. It's a simple, seat of the pants estimate, but puts Barry in two interesting locations for potentially breaking the record. Game 32 starts a three-game road trip to Boston. Game 34 is on Sunday, June 17. Fenway, of course is where Babe Ruth started playing. Games 35, 36 and 37, however, are in Milwaukee, the city in which Henry Aaron hit number 755 on 7/20/1976. It would also make it very easy for Bud to attend the game. If it doesn't happen in either of those series, Bonds returns to San Francisco to face the Yankees and another Ruth connection.

Although it would be somewhat cool if Bonds hit #756 off Schilling, if the Red Sox stay on rotation, Schilling would pitch the day before the SF series starts.


Posted by David Pinto at 12:07 PM | Records | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Remember that Bonds plays no more than five times per week (basically, never on Sundays).

Posted by: Phil at May 11, 2007 12:25 PM

Phil... that doesn't matter. David factored that in by saying Bonds has hit 11 HR in 34 GIANTS games, not in 34 games played.

Posted by: dave at May 11, 2007 01:06 PM

Bonds has played in every Sunday game the Giants have had this year (Sunday Apr 15th was rained out). He has only missed 3 games in 6 weeks of games. He's currently on track to play around 145 games, similar to his 2004 where he played 147.

Posted by: Mark S. at May 11, 2007 01:23 PM

Mark S., Bonds did not play against the Phillies on 5/6.

Posted by: Stephen at May 11, 2007 03:38 PM

You're right. I was misreading the ESPN game log entries for Bonds.

Posted by: Mark S. at May 11, 2007 04:32 PM

Re: Dave
Sorry, I missed that. Nonetheless, I think it's very optimistic (or pessimistic depending on your point of view) to expect Bonds to play in 93% of the remaining games.
Clay Davenport has a great piece on BP about projecting Bonds.

Posted by: Phil at May 11, 2007 05:09 PM

Even though I will be bowling in my 4th consecutive USBC Open Championshps at the National Bowling Stadium in Reno, Nevada, at 11:30 pm on Thursday June 23rd, I should be back in San Francisco just in time to see Barry hopefully hit career home run #756 against the visiting New York Yankees on my 53rd birthday, which falls on Friday June 22nd!

Posted by: Bowler Bob in Brisbane at May 12, 2007 08:22 PM
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