April 23, 2007
Old Habits Die Hard
Adam Dunn started out the season making contact. He struck out just eight times in his first nine games. Now that sounds like a lot, but for Adam it was a huge reduction in his career rate. He normally strikes out in 33% of his at bats. In those games, it was under 25%. Then things changed. In his last nine games, Dunn struck out every game, eight times more than once. And his averages plummetted. Putting the ball in play works for Adam. He's eight for 17 in this streak when he doesn't strike out. He can survive with a 33% strikeout rate, not a 50%. And if he can get it down to 25% again, he might win the MVP.
Posted by David Pinto at
09:05 AM
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Dunn tweaked his back on 4-14, since then he's been a mess (14 k's, 1 EBH) Always a feast or famine hitter prone to streakiness Dunnwill likely have a hot streak next which will be followed by a slew of news articles about "turning the corner" then it happen the other way and so on and so on.
I was looking at the historical BAs of MVPs, because I was curious about this very thing. Specifically, if Adam Dunn had something like a .235 BA, and somehow managed like a .430 OBP and 63 HR, could he win the MVP? It looks like MVP voters value BA pretty highly, hardly ever giving it to someone who hits under .300. I think Dunn will need to break 60 HR to win the MVP, because he's never going to bat .300.