Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
February 25, 2007
Young Enough to Learn

Chris Young of Arizona talks about cutting down on his strikeouts:

"Last year I kind of stayed aggressive, but aggressive and in control," he said. "I started understanding that when I have two strikes, (the pitcher) still has to get another one on me. I'm not going to just give it away to him like I have in the past. Just settle down at the plate and focus harder."

The result: He struck out 71 times in 402 at-bats in Triple-A, or once every 5.7 at-bats, a huge improvement over the previous two years, when he averaged one every 3.4 at-bats.

At the previous rate, he'd strikeout about 176 times in 600 AB. At the lower rate, that's cut to 105. Does a player cut his strikeout rate often when he's young, and does it help?

I looked at strikeout rates for players up to age 25, and then age 26 to 30. Players had to earn at least 500 at bats in each age group. I also only considered players who turned 25 by 1905, pretty much catching the modern era of baseball. There were 62 who had a K percentage ratio of 1.6, the ratio Young is exhibiting right now. Of those, 52 had a better OPS after age 25 than before.

Unfortunately, this is a tough study. Many of the players showing up turned 25 around the time of a major change in baseball. One group hits the age at the end of the spit ball era. A cleaner ball was easier to see and easier to hit. Another group centered around the lowering of the mound in 1969. On top of that, you would expect improvement after age 25 as players reach their peak around age 27.

So one player to note is Brian Downing. Through age 25, Brian posted a .678 OPS. From age 26-30 that number rose to .781. And his young strikeout rate was 1.7 times his older rate, similar to Young's.


Posted by David Pinto at 08:39 AM | Players | TrackBack (0)
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