hey did ESPN make a deal with Apple to plug the iPod every 4 or 5 months and make off like it's a new story or what. I didn't even read it this time, but I am sure it is about how todd helton had his ABs saved that he could call up and watch in the dugout. This is at least the 3rd time they have run this stupid story!

Interesting analysis, David.

How would the two graphs look if you adjusted for league ERA of the era?

Hmmm... although I guess part of your argument would be that the higher ERA of today isn't just due to environment, but also b/c of more (bad) pitchers.

Before I produced the graphs you see, I made graphs of various levels of ERA, 1.00-1.999, 2.00-2.99, etc. The 3's and 4's over time looked identical. No matter what the era, the 5's and on looked worse. The increase in bad pitchers is quite dramatic.

I think the fact that every ERA group of pitchers has been plugging pitchers at a significantly increasing rate over time is interesting. The rate of increase of each group also looks similar to the rate of increase for HBP overall. I'd guess that 100 years ago that the worse pitchers were hitting more batters too. I think that things like batting helmets and body armor and where guys stand in the box are much more to blame than diluted pitching.

100 years ago pitchers did not get the movement on their pitches that those of today get. Steve Stones mindset of "never throw a pitch over the white part of the plate", to Greg Maddoxs' ability to stretch the plate and smart catchers "framing of pitches". Batters of today have been forced into holding their ground on tight pitches or made to look silly bailing out on a called third strike. All that brings me to my point of "what constitutes an attempt". Batters that turn their hip into a floating curveball and get knicked should not be awarded the base. Today's umpires lack the guts to tell high priced athletes to rub some dirt on it and get back into the box. I have been an umpire for nearly 20 years and can tell you it is not an easy job to call balls and strikes, sometimes you are just a little out of position for a good look. Two balls off the outside corner and the hitter cannot make contact, two off the inside and it is close enough that coaches I played for said you should be standing on first.

I think your data completely supports Steve's original point that dilution has, at most, a tiny impact on HBP rates. The graph clearly shows that:
1) from '68 to '83, rates fell for both the high- and low-ERA pitchers, and the gap narrowed as both groups approached the theoretical minimum level; and
2) since 1983 both groups have increased their rates in tandem. Since this increase clearly has nothing to do with pitchers' ability, it must be the result of changing strategies by pitchers and/or hitters.

The increased number of innings from "bad" pitchers is simply the inevitable mathematical result of ERAs increasing after 1993. Compare the best 100 pitchers of 1968 to the best 100 in 2000 -- you will find their ERA grew tremendously. Using the logic applied here, the large number of .300 hitters in the 1930s show there were more "good hitters" in the game then. But that's obviously incorrect. The last graph merely shows the consequence, not the cause, of a higher run-scoring environment.

I don't know why there is this continued fascination with expansion as an explanation for changes in the game. Bradbury has also suggested it has something to do with the post-1993 increase in HRs and scoring. But analysis of groups of pitchers and hitters who played pre- and post-expansion, excluding the expansion players, always shows that the changes had little or nothing to do with expansion. Expansion has at most a very short-term impact on the game, but never explains any signficicant durable change. I think the theory keeps popping up because it reinforces our hope/wish that the players of our youth really were better than the players of today. But maybe something else is going on.....

"Batters that turn their hip into a floating curveball and get knicked should not be awarded the base. "

Hallelujiah. That, and batters hit on "armor". If you wear an arm guard your arm should be fair game unless you were diving or makign an extreme effort to avoid being hit.

Amen. Being hit by a pitch should not be a guarrantee for a base. It should be a quality call like any other.

Seems to me after looking at your graphs, that the HBP took an upswing starting in 1983....might have something to do with the advent of the DH. AL pitchers no longer had to worry about retaliation on themselves. I would be interested in comparing the HBP stats of the AL against the NL from 1983. I'll bet the AL numbers are the cause of the steady increase.