Rollins is a veeeerry good baserunner, not just on speed alone, but also on instincts and awareness. I've often wondered how much that compensates for his less than stellar OBP.

i don't mean to attack james or make him seem like any less of a genius than he is... but i would LOVE to know how much phillies baseball/ pat burrell at bats he's watched. also, i think pat has a decent arm.

I think that THIS IS THE BEST TRADE NEVER MADE.
Pat is going to have a great year and bring my Phillies the 2007 World Championship! I have been a Phillies fAN FOR 47 YEARS!

What does it matter? He's right. If you lead the league in runs, then offense isn't a problem. Period. Whether he watched them score the most runs in the league or not is irrelevant. 80% of the time a strikeout is no different from any other kind of out. Fans and the media are so stupid, it's unbelievable.

yeh

well i have not EVER gotten anyone to explain why it is so much worse to K than to GO. or even hit a FB or popup.

all outs. out is out.

at least it is harder to get a DP on a K

And you know the pitcher is throwing at least 3 pitches per strikeout- racking up the pitch count has got to be a good thing.

May I explain, then? It's not that a strikeout is any worse than another kind of out. It's that striking out gives a batter a 0% chance of getting on base, whereas hitting the ball fair gives him a higher than 0% chance of getting on base -- about a 30% chance of getting on base for both Rollins and Burrell.

what does he like about burrell when he sees him is the follow up question.

does he like his opposite field power? (no) his patience? (yes) his abililty to make contact in a clutch situation? (no) his abililty to crush a bad fastball? (absolutely)

that's what i'd like to know. it's too easy to say "i like him as a hitter."

lisa - fyi - when there is a man on third and less than two outs a ground out is better than a k. with a man on second a ground out to the right side is better than a k.

Personally, I think sabermetrics is a bit of bull. Bill James is a quite intelligent man no doubt, and yes some of the stats are pretty incisive, like OPS and all, but a lot of his ideas don't pan out in real life. It was his advice that led Theo and co to try the closer by committee approach in 2003, with disastrous consequences until Theo finally decided to go get BK Kim. Also, Bill James actually tried to argue that the Red sox had had a better season in 2005 than in 2004, try explaining that to any Red Sox fan. Finally, arguably Bill James's biggest disciple has been Billy Beane, who pretty swears by money ball. And what has that brough him and the As? One ALCS appearance?

RE: Billy Beane, who pretty swears by money ball. And what has that brough him and the As? One ALCS appearance?

Do you understand that Beane works with a budget that is 2/3 of the Phillies budget and has been to a h*** of a lot more playoffs in the last 6-7 years than the Phillies have? Or than the Mets have? Or that Boston has a budget 2x Oakland's or NYY has a budget 3x (or more)? Don't you think it is just a teensy-weensy bit harder to run a team with money disparities such as those?

Your slamming James on 2 points (did he really say 2005 > 2004? Where?) reminds me of the Star Trek episode where Kirk has amnesia, walks out of a cave, matching the prophecy about the God, Kirak. Later when Kirk gets a cut fighting, the doubter (whose babe fell for Kir(a)k), declares: "Behold the god who bleeds". That's what your post sounds like to me. :)

Chris R - you aften hear that explanation of why strikeouts are worse, but imho it is mixing apples and oranges: in one case (the strikeout) you look at the play after it is over and in the other (the batted out) you look at the play before it is done. It is not true to say there is a chance that a player will not be out when he grounds out or flies out. It is true to say there is a chance he will get on when he hits the ball, but there is also a chance a batter won't strike out when he swings or watches a pitch.