December 08, 2006
Probabilistic Model of Range, Leftfielders
Here's the outs table for leftfielders:
Probabilistic Model of Range, Leftfielders. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only. Minimum 1000 Balls in Play. Uses Distance for Fly Balls.
| Player | InPlay | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | Out Difference | Out Ratio |
|
|---|
| Melky Cabrera | 3063 | 217 | 198.64 | 18.36 | 109.24 |
| Dave Roberts | 2887 | 239 | 219.66 | 19.34 | 108.81 |
| Brandon W Fahey | 1164 | 101 | 93.56 | 7.44 | 107.96 |
| Matt Diaz | 1798 | 163 | 151.27 | 11.73 | 107.75 |
| Reed Johnson | 1915 | 129 | 120.94 | 8.06 | 106.66 |
| Emil Brown | 2359 | 163 | 152.84 | 10.16 | 106.65 |
| Luke B Scott | 1188 | 81 | 76.76 | 4.24 | 105.53 |
| Jason Bay | 4269 | 316 | 299.59 | 16.41 | 105.48 |
| Ryan Langerhans | 2240 | 156 | 148.87 | 7.13 | 104.79 |
| Jason Michaels | 3283 | 214 | 208.11 | 5.89 | 102.83 |
| Andre E Ethier | 2779 | 172 | 168.24 | 3.76 | 102.23 |
| Matt Murton | 3026 | 240 | 234.98 | 5.02 | 102.13 |
| David DeJesus | 1736 | 138 | 136.42 | 1.58 | 101.15 |
| Frank Catalanotto | 2308 | 140 | 138.53 | 1.47 | 101.06 |
| So Taguchi | 1141 | 87 | 86.31 | 0.69 | 100.79 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 4405 | 326 | 325.21 | 0.79 | 100.24 |
| Nick T Swisher | 2035 | 170 | 169.92 | 0.08 | 100.05 |
| Matt T Holliday | 4234 | 277 | 276.97 | 0.03 | 100.01 |
| Cliff Floyd | 2280 | 148 | 148.21 | -0.21 | 99.86 |
| Carl Crawford | 4006 | 302 | 302.84 | -0.84 | 99.72 |
| Brad Wilkerson | 2106 | 139 | 139.59 | -0.59 | 99.58 |
| Garret Anderson | 2377 | 192 | 193.18 | -1.18 | 99.39 |
| Raul Ibanez | 4289 | 302 | 304.45 | -2.45 | 99.20 |
| Juan Rivera | 1440 | 126 | 127.34 | -1.34 | 98.95 |
| Luis Gonzalez | 4063 | 256 | 259.76 | -3.76 | 98.55 |
| Preston Wilson | 2639 | 156 | 158.77 | -2.77 | 98.25 |
| Josh D Willingham | 3255 | 206 | 210.68 | -4.68 | 97.78 |
| Scott Podsednik | 3417 | 245 | 252.50 | -7.50 | 97.03 |
| Barry Bonds | 2708 | 188 | 194.71 | -6.71 | 96.56 |
| Pat Burrell | 2990 | 205 | 212.40 | -7.40 | 96.51 |
| Chris E Duncan | 1015 | 66 | 68.47 | -2.47 | 96.39 |
| Jay Payton | 1442 | 119 | 123.80 | -4.80 | 96.12 |
| Kevin Mench | 1217 | 80 | 83.30 | -3.30 | 96.04 |
| Jeff Conine | 1436 | 88 | 92.18 | -4.18 | 95.47 |
| Carlos Lee | 3883 | 227 | 240.61 | -13.61 | 94.34 |
| Craig Monroe | 2909 | 168 | 178.63 | -10.63 | 94.05 |
| Adam Dunn | 4132 | 279 | 300.46 | -21.46 | 92.86 |
| Marcus Thames | 1193 | 70 | 76.87 | -6.87 | 91.07 |
| Manny Ramirez | 3151 | 175 | 194.87 | -19.87 | 89.80 |
| Bobby Kielty | 1030 | 80 | 92.02 | -12.02 | 86.94 |
I think there's good reason there for the Yankees to find Melky quite a bit of time next year. Looks like he'd have been the top LF if he started around 150 games.
I'm surprised to see Murton so high on this list. From watching the Cubs in person, it doesn't seem like he gets to a lot of balls and I would consider him an average fielding outfielder at best. But maybe I'm wrong...