Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, Pitchers, 2006

December 04, 2006

Probabilistic Model of Range, Pitchers, 2006

The last position to examine is pitchers. They play less than other position players, so I'm looking at hurlers on the field for 500 balls in play.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Pitchers. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only. Minimum 500 Balls in Play. Uses Distance for Fly Balls.
Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Out Difference	Out Ratio
Greg Maddux	688	53	32.45	20.55	163.31
Jae Seo	528	20	14.26	5.74	140.21
Johan Santana	603	35	25.25	9.75	138.60
Justin B Verlander	564	18	13.38	4.62	134.55
Cory Lidle	516	35	28.44	6.56	123.06
Tom Glavine	621	43	35.04	7.96	122.73
Jake Peavy	542	28	22.88	5.12	122.38
Bronson Arroyo	707	35	28.61	6.39	122.32
Kevin Millwood	670	31	25.60	5.40	121.08
John Lackey	635	28	23.44	4.56	119.47
Jon Garland	715	36	30.24	5.76	119.07
Miguel Batista	692	32	27.04	4.96	118.35
Jeff Suppan	634	24	20.29	3.71	118.29
Kenny Rogers	656	40	33.82	6.18	118.26
Jake Westbrook	720	45	38.28	6.72	117.55
Steve Trachsel	552	28	23.93	4.07	117.00
Mark Redman	573	26	22.25	3.75	116.88
Jeff W Francis	626	34	29.19	4.81	116.48
Matt Morris	687	28	24.05	3.95	116.42
Erik Bedard	583	25	21.87	3.13	114.33
John Smoltz	662	37	33.02	3.98	112.07
Dan Haren	668	27	24.14	2.86	111.86
Jamie Moyer	696	32	28.69	3.31	111.52
Brandon Webb	701	44	39.52	4.48	111.35
Josh Beckett	590	26	23.37	2.63	111.26
Felix A Hernandez	551	26	23.43	2.57	110.99
Javier Vazquez	594	30	27.25	2.75	110.08
Ted Lilly	524	24	21.81	2.19	110.03
Kris Benson	595	26	23.67	2.33	109.85
Josh Fogg	581	28	25.67	2.33	109.08
Paul G Maholm	559	37	34.11	2.89	108.47
Mark Buehrle	688	27	25.13	1.87	107.43
Jason Schmidt	607	18	16.86	1.14	106.79
Zach Duke	726	45	42.71	2.29	105.37
Dontrelle Willis	690	43	40.83	2.17	105.31
Carlos Zambrano	563	36	34.22	1.78	105.20
Noah Lowry	521	22	21.13	0.87	104.11
Livan Hernandez	720	35	33.68	1.32	103.92
Tony Armas Jr.	500	21	20.26	0.74	103.66
Claudio Vargas	538	18	17.48	0.52	102.98
Randy Johnson	590	26	25.40	0.60	102.38
Derek Lowe	716	48	47.07	0.93	101.98
Jason Jennings	655	27	26.56	0.44	101.65
Jose Contreras	614	23	22.72	0.28	101.25
Jon Lieber	557	22	21.90	0.10	100.46
Vicente Padilla	608	24	23.92	0.08	100.35
Clay A Hensley	571	27	26.96	0.04	100.16
Paul Byrd	647	17	17.00	-0.00	99.97
Curt Schilling	592	24	24.13	-0.13	99.45
Roy Halladay	686	34	34.22	-0.22	99.34
Brett Myers	549	24	24.71	-0.71	97.12
Chien-Ming Wang	758	44	45.46	-1.46	96.80
Ian D Snell	539	27	27.97	-0.97	96.52
Rodrigo Lopez	616	17	17.62	-0.62	96.49
Chris Carpenter	638	28	29.24	-1.24	95.75
Jamey Wright	507	21	22.00	-1.00	95.47
Brad Radke	549	22	23.15	-1.15	95.03
Aaron Cook	744	50	52.72	-2.72	94.84
Mike Mussina	570	22	23.24	-1.24	94.68
Jarrod Washburn	619	22	23.30	-1.30	94.44
Jason Marquis	648	32	34.47	-2.47	92.84
Gil Meche	539	19	20.53	-1.53	92.56
Aaron Harang	684	37	40.43	-3.43	91.51
Cliff Lee	658	16	17.57	-1.57	91.06
Andy Pettitte	652	28	31.06	-3.06	90.15
Kelvim Escobar	570	19	21.26	-2.26	89.37
Chris Capuano	677	28	31.75	-3.75	88.19
Matt Cain	528	18	20.59	-2.59	87.41
David T Bush	621	27	30.93	-3.93	87.31
Barry Zito	655	18	20.73	-2.73	86.84
Ramon Ortiz	654	21	24.24	-3.24	86.65
Freddy Garcia	695	21	24.27	-3.27	86.53
Mark Hendrickson	537	22	25.79	-3.79	85.30
Esteban Loaiza	520	16	18.77	-2.77	85.25
Carlos Silva	664	22	25.84	-3.84	85.13
Jeremy Bonderman	615	18	21.26	-3.26	84.66
Brad Penny	583	19	22.54	-3.54	84.28
Roy Oswalt	668	29	34.57	-5.57	83.90
Doug Davis	619	24	28.70	-4.70	83.61
Nate Robertson	639	21	25.44	-4.44	82.53
Tim Hudson	705	30	36.92	-6.92	81.25
Ervin R Santana	603	14	17.33	-3.33	80.80
Joel Pineiro	569	18	22.63	-4.63	79.54
C.C. Sabathia	562	18	23.50	-5.50	76.58
Jeff Weaver	572	16	21.82	-5.82	73.34
Joe M Blanton	668	13	18.49	-5.49	70.31

Maddux is head and shoulders above everyone else. To break this down further, he's +14 outs on ground balls, +4 outs on line drives, and +2 outs on fly balls (assume they're pop ups). On line drives, Greg was expected to make 1.74 outs, and he actually made 6. That's four single he likely saved. Based on this, he definitely deserved the gold glove.

Posted by David Pinto at 07:04 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Why is the difference so huge for Maddux? We've known all along he is a fine fielder. Or did he do extra-well this year?

Posted by: tony at December 4, 2006 11:28 PM

Is there anyway to combine PMR data from multiple years? Frankly, I'd like to see this for all positions, but pitchers particularly since they get so few chances.

Posted by: Trev at December 5, 2006 04:51 AM

I haven't gone back to check but is this the first time a guy in his 40s has led the league at his position?

Posted by: Crank at December 5, 2006 10:36 AM

is there a reason cory lidle is on this list?

Posted by: kim at December 7, 2006 01:01 PM