re: the mvp vote

well, you're right about the win shares analysis. Beltran has a huge edge due to his playing centerfield really well along with his huge offensive stats in a pitchers park. Shea really masks the immensity of his season.

Nonetheless, being the homefield guy I am, and recognizing the beauty of what he accomplished this year, and rewarding him for not being doped up on steroids and hitting 58 home runs and tying a 75 year old philadelphia As record by jimmie foxx anyway, i'd still give it to young Ryan Howard, who did achieve 29 win shares, most of them in the second half of the season.

Howard was first in the league in home runs and RBIS, and in the top ten in batting average. Given another month of play, he might have won the triple crown.

I strongly believe next year that Howard has the chance to (1) hit sixty homers (2) win the triple crown (3) walk 200 times (4) drive in more than 200 runs and (5) propel the phillies to the NL east crown.

Pujols second half fade (and the cardinals winning fewer games than the phillies) should outweigh the slight margin of win shares that Pujols enjoys over Howard, most of those amassed in the first half.

Incidentally, Andruw Jones of Atlanta put up another monster year with 41 homers and outstanding CF play. It's hard to distinguish his year from Beltran's except for park effects and the record of his team.

--art kyriazis philly

re: Chase Utley

This may be fueling a fire, but Chase Utley was more valuable to the Phillies than Cabrera, Soriano, Berkman or Reyes were to any of their teams.

Utley did all of the following;

200 or more hits
scored 100 or more runs
30 or more homers
drove in 100 or more runs
fielded his position beautifully
led all 2Bmen in both leagues in win shares
batted 3rd much of the year
set the table for Ryan Howard much of the year
had high OBA and Slugging Avg and OPS
Played nearly every day
complete five tool player

As good a year as Utley had last year, he was BETTER this year. And he's still only in his third year, and young. Cabrera is not a good third basemen. Berkman is a converted outfielder at 1stbase. We haven't seen hitting, on base, power and speed numbers like Utley's since Joe Morgan, and it's time we spoke of Utley in the same breath as Joe Morgan.

The Phils combination of Utley and Howard is a big like Joe Morgan playing with Willie Stargell.

--art kyriazis Philly

No. A-Rod is bad and doesn't look like a winner, and clearly can't handle the pressure in New York and should be traded immediately. Before the post season starts if they can swing it.

Also, Jose Reyes is clearly a better player than Jeter. They said so in the Sporting News

Er, what 2nd half fade? Pujols hit .344/.427/.642 in the 2nd half of the season. Yeah, his power went down a little, but not by much.

In the 2nd half, other than in August when Chris Duncan was hot, Pujols was pretty much the entire Cardinals offense. Eckstein was awful, then got hurt. His replacement was just awful, period. Edmonds got hurt. Rolen slumped in the 2nd half. Encarnacion was Encarnacion.

Jermaine Dye doesn't even get a top-10 consideration?

2nd this: Jermaine Dye doesn't even get a top-10 consideration?

Mike Young? .815 OPS.

I agree with both Jeter and Beltran. Funny thing, I usually would never consider a .275 hitter to be an MVP....but I look at his numbers and it strikes me hard that each time he did get a hit, it was a valuable valuable hit. Each one, meant something.

Oh, and as for A-Rod...he also had 117 Runs Created. Jeter was the only Yankee to have more...with 133.

Art, i love your enthusiasm, but there is no way in hell Howard is completeing the first four items on your list. if anything, his homers will be down because he will be pitched around the whole season.

if anything his average will dip or stay the same, rather than go up. (there goes your triple crown theory) do you really think he can hit for a better average than Pujols ?

eh, i dont like 200 walks either. i understand he gets alot of IBB's, but his batting eye isnt good enuff to accumulate even 100 non intentional walks.

No Jermaine Dye???

He won't hit 60 homers if he doesn't get somebody better then Pat Burrell behind him in the lineup. 200 walks is unlikely...I think he's more likely to get around 160-170. He only walked 31 times in the first half, before everyone stopped pitching to him. He walked 77 times in the 2nd half, including 35 in September. If that's the new norm, then 200 is possible...but I'm still going with 160-170. This also assumes his eye improves, and he continues to progress against lefties.

Howard's my MVP even though the numbers say Beltran...I just think Carlos had it easier in that lineup, park effects be damned. Although the .256 avg w/RISP for Howard (.320 for Beltran...wow) means I can't complain no matter which one wins it. Though it's worth mentioning that Howard's OBP w/RISP is almost the same as Beltran's.

In the AL, I like Santana, Jeter 2nd. Twins were 27-7 with him starting. And he averaged 6.87 IP per start, (next best in the AL was Haren at 6.56) which means he made the staff as a whole better by saving pen arms. Without him, the Twins definately don't win the division, and they almost certainly don't make the playoffs.

I really think the NL discussion should be between pujols and Berkman. Berkman put up some amazing numbers with absolutely no protection, and even given the fact that he plays in a ridiculous joke of a ballpark, he is a terrifying man to see come up to bat in the late innings of a close game no matter where you are. Clutch 12.5, BA_RISP .382 - what a nightmare!

Pujols is hands-down the best hitter in baseball, and in addition he has made himself into (arguably) the best first baseman. He made some amazing plays at first base this year. This is not at all captured by his fielding scores, and you simply cannot overlook the fact that he set the major league record for game-winning home runs this season, unseating willie mays' 44 year old record. Howard had more home runs, but pujols had more home runs that mattered--over twice as many game winning home runs, 20 vs 9. Pujols batted .389 with runners in scoring position, clutch rating of 13.7 - Howard batted .256 w/risp, -7.6 clutch rating. Negative 7.6! Howard was as bad as Beltran was good (.320, 8.0 clutch).

Howard was a basically a strikeout machine who hit a lot of home runs but who failed to help his team when they needed it the most. In the last two weeks of the season, with the phillies fighting for a wild card spot, he struck out 20 times while hitting 2 home runs. The only thing you can really say good about his clutch performance is that he walked a lot and didn't hit into many double plays... Scott Spezio- heck, even Aaron Miles - was more dangerous with the game on the line than Ryan Howard down the stretch, and they both had awful septembers.

I didn't watch enough NYM games to comment on Beltran's fielding, but a 60 point BA difference, 50 point OBP, and 80 point slg advantage is hard to overlook.

David, you've got Mike Young ahead of Frank Thomas *and* Jermaine Dye? What does Young give the Rangers, a sub-.500 finish in third instead of fourth? I know the ChiSox finished *third* *with* Dye, but they would've won 2/3 NL divisions with that record, so "third" isn't the same in the ALC as the ALW (though Chicago did fall off the map in September, so if you're docking Dye for that, that's more plausible).

Hell, you've even got Manny Ramirez ahead of those two. You're sure about that, too? Manny healthy with stats to match his limited production this year, I wouldn't argue. But 2006 Manny? I dunno. Second fiddle on a team that didn't even *make* the playoffs?

Your MVP picks are a joke. I thought you knew what you where talking about. In the National league Howard is easily the MVP and in the American league it should be between Morneau and Santana, who hasn't lost at home in over ONE year. Without Morneau or Santana where would Minnesota be? Without Jeter the Yankee's still would be in the postseason. This is the most important criteria...Where would a team be without this player?

Wow...as much as I like win shares, I think it is pretty crazy to not have Dye or Thomas in your top ten.

A couple of more stats in favor of pujols - using the 2006 espn park factors to correct his home run total, he would have had 58.8 if he played half his games in the philly bandbox, and he batted .435 with risp/2 outs. (howard .235!) Busch 3 played almost identically to shea this year, #'s 19 and 20 in HR ratings, so the argument above for beltran is moot. In fact, since busch suppressed doubles by 13% over shea, which plays neutral, and busch 3 suppresses triples by 25% over league norms, you could make the argument that pujols' slg should have been much higher. A quick check shows that he did in fact slug 30 points higher on the road...

Finally, Howard had 37 more at/bats with risp than pujols - given the fact that he batted .389+ with risp, even assuming he only got one rbi/hit with risp, and assuming that he batted .389 instead of .435, he would have still easily had more ribi's than howard if he had had the opportunities.