September 28, 2006
Phillies Playing
The Phillies and Nationals are finally underway.
Update: The first run of the game doesn't come until Sept. 29th as Ryan Church goes deep in the bottom of the second to up the Nationals up 1-0.
Posted by David Pinto at
11:39 PM
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Wow . . . is anyone there?
What am I saying, I live in DC, I can see it on MASN.
From the looks of it, there is still a small but vocal group of people who aren't go to work tomorrow present.
I tried figuring some odds for the massive ties. After tonight's games are complete, six teams will still be in contention, three for one spot (STL, HOU, and CIN) and three for the other two (LA, SD, and PHI). These teams have a combined 19 games left (including St. Louis' potential make-up game) and in a quirk of scheduling, all of the games are against teams outside of the tie scenario.
Assuming San Diego wins its game tonight (leading 11-2 in the 8th), and taking no guess on the rain-delayed Philadelphia-Washington game, I calculated the odds of the various scenarios, assuming a simple 50-50 chance of winning each game. For our purposes that is close enough.
SD-LA-PHI - 2.1%
SD-LA - 21.1% (no playoff)
SD-PHI - 1.2% (no playoff)
LA-PHI - 0.3% (no playoff)
STL-HOU-CIN - 1.5%
STL-HOU - 25.8%
STL-CIN - 0.4%
HOU-CIN - 0.3%
Odds of two three-way ties: 0.03% (1 in 3,329)
Someone check my math...