Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
September 27, 2006
Trading Crawford

Rays Index notes an article claiming the Devil Rays are going to actively pursue a trade of Carl Crawford:

If Carl Crawford is available, what would it take to pry him off the hands of the Rays? Keep in mind that C. C. is young (25), on the verge of being a perennial All-Star, and is signed to a modest contract through 2010. Carl Crawford is The Perfect Storm for an organization. And that makes him an extremely valuable commodity. MLB Trade Rumors came up with a list of several of the top pitching prospects that could be used to try and obtain Crawford. Would one of these can't miss prospects be enough to land Crawford? It is hard to imagine the Rays would part with a proven player before his prime for a prospect or prospects. If there is anything we have learned, is that there is no such thing as a can't miss prospect. Would a team be willing to part with a proven young pitcher for a left fielder? The name that comes to mind for us is Justin Verlander of the Tigers. A young proven pitcher on a team with pitching depth. Jim Leyland has clamored all season for more speed on his team.

Crawford is a fascinating player. The numbers over his career show a steady improvement. He's posted over 20 win shares for the third year in a row, a sign of a quality player. For his career, his stolen base success rate is over 80%, exactly what you want from someone who runs. He's exactly the kind of ballplayer who can add three or four wins to a team that's close to contention.

But there's a downside to Crawford as well. The first is that he's a high average, low on-base player. There's nothing wrong with that as long as he maintains the high average. If his batting average drops to .260 however, his OBA of .300 would not be helping the team. The other thing is that over his career he's been helped by his ballpark. It's added 30 points of OBA and 40 points of slugging percentage. Moving to a park like Comerica might not make Carl look all that good. (The slugging difference disappeared this season, but the OBA difference still remains.)

Overall though, I agree that Carl should bring a good pitcher to the Rays if they go in that direction, although a pitcher who is capable of 20 win shares a season is even more coveted than a left fielder of that caliber. And do you really want to trade him for prospects? I agree with Rays Index that the likelihood is that Tampa holds on to Carl.


Posted by David Pinto at 09:44 AM | Players | TrackBack (0)
Comments

if i'm tampa, i explore trading everyone BUT crawford. and if i have young "can't-miss" pitching prospects, i would hold onto them. baseball business can be so weird sometimes.

Posted by: BenJah at September 27, 2006 10:21 AM

The Tampa situation is oddly similar to the Florida Marlins -- except, of course, that the Rays don't win a World Series every few years.

It's hard to see a Crawford trade as a positive for the franchise; he's young, likely to improve, and relatively inexpensive. I can think of a couple rationales for a deal:

1. Management is convinced that Crawford has peaked early, and they need to trade him now. Players with high BAs and low OBAs do tend to have shorter careers than players with a good command of the strike zone.

2. They can get one hell of a deal for him -- similar to, say, the Josh Beckett trade of last winter.

Otherwise, Crawford is exactly the kind of player the Rays need to hold onto if they're serious about building a winning team.

Posted by: johnw at September 27, 2006 12:02 PM

As a Tigers fan I don't want to see Verlander traded for Crawford, but Crawford is just the type of player the Tigers love- low on base %.

Posted by: Chris J at September 27, 2006 12:07 PM

If the Devil Rays could get a new stadium for him, they should trade Crawford.

Posted by: rbj at September 27, 2006 01:47 PM

re: White Sox trading for Carl Crawford

I would agree that the White Sox trading for Carl Crawford is a good scenario.

The White Sox have badly needed table setters this past year.

Carl Crawford may have the defects you assign to him, but he is the kind of exciting player who can hit for extra bases as well as having speed on the bases. He is MORE of a leadoff type hitter than is Scott Podsednik and hitting in front of Thome, Dye & Konerko, one would have to think Crawford would score 120 runs.

Even if his OBA and other numbers went down in Chicago, they wouldn't be as poor as Podsednik's. Jimmy Rollins has shown that if you can maintain an OBA of .333, steal 90% of your bases and steal at least 30 a year, and hit 20 or more homers and 30 or more doubles a year, you can be a really effective and even a destructive leadoff hitter without having a .375 OBA. Rollins Slugging % is in the high .400s. His OPS is always nearly .800. or above .800.

Trading for Crawford, given the pitching depth of Chicago, should be a priority offseason.

--art kyriazis, philly

Posted by: art kyriazis at September 27, 2006 03:42 PM

Noah Lowry, maybe? The Giants are certainly starved for young position players and have some young pitchers.

I'd be tempted to do it if I were the Mets and it was Humber or Pelfrey but not both (especially if the Rays would take Zambrano back). A Crawford-Beltran-Milledge outfield, combined with Wright and Reyes, is a tremendous offensive and defensive core, and Crawford's cheap enough compared to Floyd that you would be saving payroll that could be spent on more proven pitching. I think Crawford will add more power as he ages, and even without great OBPs a 1-2 punch of him and Reyes would drive teams batty, particularly teams like the Braves with an offense-first catcher.

Posted by: Crank at September 27, 2006 05:06 PM

Actually, Crawford's pretty much guaranteed an All-Star Game slot as long as he stays with the Rays.

Posted by: Adam Villani at September 27, 2006 08:23 PM

i'd LOVE to have him back home here in houston

Posted by: lisa gray at September 28, 2006 02:35 AM
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