Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
September 27, 2006
Massive Tie Update

The San Diego win last night both helped and hurt the cause. It eliminated the chance of a massive tie involving the Padres, since St. Louis is the only team in the Central that can catch San Diego now. But other possibilities abound.

It's still possible to end up with two three-way ties, although that hope is getting dimmer as well. With five games to play, San Diego leads Los Angeles by two and Philadelphia by three. So if the Phillies go 5-0, San Diego needs to go 2-3, and the Dodgers 4-1 to force a two game playoff, the first for the West and the second for the Wild Card. Note that if the Padres and Dodgers finished tied by themselves, the Padres win the West by virtue of their 13-5 record against the Dodgers.

Then we could get a three-way tie in the Central if the Reds go 5-0, the Astros go 4-1 and the Cardinals go 3-3. There's a lot of leeway here. If either San Diego or St. Louis wins fewer games, that makes the tie a bit easier to obtain.

And there is the second chance at a five way tie. Given the above NL Central scenario, if the Dodgers lose all five of their games and the Phillies finish 1-4, we'd get an extra week of games. In this case, there would be a three-way tie for the central and a five-way tie for the wild card. Combined with the fact that to get their, the Cardinals need to make up a game with the Giants on Monday, there would be a two-day playoff on Tuesday and Wednesday to determine the NL Central champ, then a two-day playoff on Wednesday and Thursday to determine the Wild Card. Given the geographic distribution of these five teams, there could be much traveling those four days.

And of course, if you leave out Cincinnati there is still the chance of a four way tie. That would take one less day to play but would still be very cool.

So here's the best results for the two scenarios.

Two Three-Way Ties:

  • Philadelphia defeats Washington.
  • Houston defeats Pittsburgh.
  • Cincinnati defeats Florida.
  • St. Louis defeats San Diego.
  • Los Angeles defeats Colorado.

Five Way Tie:

  • Washington defeats Philadelphia.
  • Houston defeats Pittsburgh.
  • Cincinnati defeats Florida.
  • San Diego defeats St. Louis.
  • Colorado defeats Los Angeles.

In a three way tie for the Central, the Reds have the best head-to-head record among the three clubs, the Astros the worst. So the likelihood is that game one would pit the Cardinals against the Astros in Houston, with the winner hosting the Reds the next day. I'd take that choice if I were the Reds, especially if I could throw Aaron Harang on the road, where he's very good, rather than two games at the hitter's park in Cincinnati.


Posted by David Pinto at 08:57 AM | TrackBack (0)
Comments
Post a comment









Remember personal info?