Baseball Musings: The Dye is Cast

August 24, 2006

The Dye is Cast

Jermaine Dye hit two home runs and a double today to help Chicago to a 10-0 win over Detroit. Dye is now slugging .651, 170 points over his career average. His career high before this was .561in 2000. It's pretty unusual for a player to set career highs in power at this age (32). I wonder if we'll start hearing steroid rumors about him. Does anyone know if Dye changed his approach to hitting this year, or if someone's coached him differently?

Update, 8/25/2006, 8:45 AM: There's an argument in the comments for the park helping Dye. The problem with that argument is it doesn't hold water. In 2005, the park was neutral for him in batting average and OBA. It did, however, help his slugging percentage. In 2006, the park is neutral in OBA once again, but his BA and slugging are much better away from Chicago. Note also that these results are indeed outliers. The 95% confidence range for hits in 424 at bats is 92 to 136. Dye collected 138 hits so far. For OBA, the range is 142 to 182, and Dye reached base 186 times. This season represents a big departure from career norms for Dye, and the probability that it's random is small.

Posted by David Pinto at 03:33 PM | Sluggers | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Steroids??? GMAFB!

Jermaine Dye's 2006 is very comparable to his 2000 in KC. BA is nearly identical. SLP is up mostly due to more HRs and fewer 2Bs, consistent with an older, slightly slower power hitter now playing in a HR hitter's park.

In between, Dye played in Oakland, was hurt a lot, and HATED the travel schedule west coast teams have to deal with. Also he had less protection in the lineup. Those factors led to his decline in production there.

Jermaine has credited Jim Thome with improving his (Dye's) approach this year, and it's alos pretty clear that most pitchers are worn down facing Thome and Paulie Baseball before they get to Dye.

Posted by: Mark at August 24, 2006 05:26 PM

Uh, KC in 2000 was a pretty fair HR hitter's park. BP has translated statistics to account for this and other factors, and Jermaine Dye is having a far better year than he did at age 26. Furthermore, that 2000 year was within the normal peak range for most players (25-29, centered on 27), and this year is in the normal range for early decline (post-31).

It is, of course, possible that Dye's injuries (including the truly horrific broken leg he suffered in the playoffs with the A's) and his recovery have simply delayed his peak production, or that he's learned something about how his body works, or that he has perfected his approach at the plate, or that he is a statistical outlier for non-steroidal reasons. However, he's definitely an outlier, and I'd want to see more proof before believing "travel made him suck" (or, for that matter, "he's been popping 'roids") as an explanation for his season.

As an aside, lineup protection's been pretty well debunked - hitters who get pitched around either take the walks and turn in better performances, or they swing at bad pitches, get worse, and then don't get pitched around anymore.

As a further aside, I really hate that the biggest legacy of the Steroid Era is that anything a player puts together a terrific run like this, the spectre of cheating is one step behind him. I'd love to be able to watch a player have a great season and not wonder if he's about to be suspended.

Posted by: Subrata Sircar at August 24, 2006 05:52 PM

Correction accepted: I should have been more clear that The Cell is *even more of* a HR hitter's park than KC was.

Dye himself has commented about the wear and tear of west coast teams' travel schedule (not really getting a day off because he spent that day traveling, etc.), and about Thome's positive influence--not just technique, but mindset, like coming back to the dugout after striking out and thinking "Cool. Now I've got him set up. He thinks he can get me out."

Personally, my first choice for any chemical related effect this year is speed, not 'roids. It's likely that any hitter having a career year in 2006 is being helped by all the pitchers no longer taking speed.

Posted by: Mark at August 24, 2006 06:24 PM

Gotta love the spam-link that attached itself to the word "steroids."

Posted by: Scott at August 24, 2006 08:10 PM

Gotta love the spam-link that attached itself to the word "steroids."

A better one is in the post below with Pagan. We get a pagan superstore! heh.

Posted by: mark at August 24, 2006 09:13 PM

Steroid speculation for Jermaine Dye? How responsible of you, Dave.

In the realm of reality, Jermaine Dye's having a good year because of a high BABIP and playing in a hitter's park. He's walked more this year, and struck out more as well. His performance isn't a jump forward, and he should return to normal next year.

Posted by: MikeQ at August 24, 2006 10:30 PM

To be fair, Dave didn't speculate that Dye was roiding - he just wondered whether we might hear rumors due to Dye's performance, which I think is a completely legitimate statement given Dye's performance relative to age. I'm not saying he does steroids, but it's not unfair to wonder if other people will speculate.

Posted by: Will at August 24, 2006 11:00 PM

C'mon, you're acting like 32 is some old man's age. It fits in perfectly right at the end of the normal 28-32 performance peak. He has hit into 12 DP's though, maybe he is old man Dye.

Posted by: d00g at August 24, 2006 11:35 PM

Its a career year, plain and simple. I don't suspect steroids. Next year he'll probably hit .277 with 32 homers, and resume his normal career path.

Probably one of every 2 or 3 players who play regularly for an extended period of time, at some point in their careers, have a year that just makes you say WTF?. This is Dye's year.

Posted by: Rally at August 25, 2006 09:33 AM

Note that more than 15% of Dye's road at-bats have been in Comerica. He--and Crede, who I think now has the most HRs there of any visiting player--have both remarked about how they see the ball really well there.

Dye's in the AL Central now, so he plays there--and a few other parks he likes, like the Jake--much more than he did when he was with Oakland.

Posted by: Mark at August 25, 2006 11:17 AM

Dear Dave and Will,

I wonder how rumors get started? Could it be when an irresponsible fan, columnists, or sportblabs start speculating about nonsense? Give the guy some credit and please GMAFB!

Posted by: Luke at August 25, 2006 04:15 PM

d00g, the normal peak range for baseball players isn't 28-32, not even today with training/nutrition/medical advances. It's 25-29, with decay years normally starting at 32.

Clearly, Dye is having a career year. That happens, especially for players with talent. What's unusual is that he's having it at an age and time where most people have started to fall off. Heck, people with injuries like his are out of the game at this age!

BTW, Luke, why should Dye get credit for his fantastic year, while McGwire gets tagged with the steroids label? Same "evidence" - or lack thereof.

Posted by: Subrata Sircar at August 25, 2006 04:56 PM

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