Baseball Musings: Make Sure There's Enough Milk

May 24, 2006

Make Sure There's Enough Milk

Coco Crisp is due back Monday. Coco last played on April 8th. Centerfield hasn't been strong offensively for the Red Sox since. From 4/9 on, Red Sox centerfielders are hitting .270 with a .318 OBA and a .369 slugging percentage. The big question is what happens to Youkilis, who's proven himself an adept leadoff hitter, putting up a .429 OBA in the #1 slot. I would guess Loretta gets moved down to the bottom of the order with Coco and Kevin batting 1 and 2.

Posted by David Pinto at 08:23 AM | Injuries | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Of course, Youkilis should stay at the top of the order because he's a far better leadoff hitter than Crisp will ever be. But as I said before, Crisp looks a lot more like a typical manager's idea of a leadoff hitter, so he'll get the one-hole despite his mediocre (at best) career .332 OBP.

Loretta's career .365 OBP makes him a good two-hole batter, but I agree that he'll get shoved down to the bottom of the lineup. Amazing how the Red Sox will mess around with their lineup just to accomodate the very average (if that) Crisp.

Posted by: Casey Abell at May 24, 2006 09:09 AM

Yup. Good news for Red Sox opponents, because either Youkilis or Loretta (maybe both) will get fewer AB, and Crisp will get more.

Posted by: Barron at May 24, 2006 10:13 AM

It appears that the Sox plan to return to the original lineup: Crisp leadoff, Loretta second. Youkilis would go probably #7, with the hope that he will jumpstart the bottom of the order (a la Bill Mueller).

If it were me, I'd put Youk in the #2 spot, but I think Loretta is okay there. He had a slow start, but has been doing fine lately.

And you shouldn't judge Crisp by his career numbers; he's 26, young enough to be on the upswing, and his numbers have improved the past couple of years. Crisp 2005: .300/.345/.465. Damon 2005: .316/.366/.439. Crisp is six years younger, and could reasonably be expected to outperform Damon this season.

Posted by: johnw at May 24, 2006 10:23 AM

Okay, maybe Crisp will improve. But his highest full-season OBP so far was .345. He's gonna have to improve a lot before he can approach Youkilis' .423 mark this year.

And burying Youkilis' great OBP in the seven-hole is such a dumb move that I can't believe even the most hidebound organization would do it.

Which probably means the Sox will do it.

Posted by: Casey Abell at May 24, 2006 10:40 AM

The important question isn't who bats leadoff, but rather, who gets moved down? Youkilis should clearly stay at the top---he's simply too good at getting on base and too good of a hitter to be moved to #7/8. I'd bet that the Sox brain-trust (finally) realizes this. Btw, it's worth noting that Youkilis has power. His 04-05 ISO was .146 and it's .169 so far this season. Also, Youkilis is spectacularly good at avoiding double plays. He's had 3 GDP's in his career, or .0057 per PA. In contrast, Damon averages .0091 GDP per PA. The #2 hole might suit Youkilis' talents even better than the #1 hole.

Whether Loretta or Crisp gets dropped ain't such a big deal, IMO. Loretta is an aging (34) singles and doubles hitter with a .365 career OBP; his ISO barely eclipses .100. Crisp is young (26), fast, hits for average and some power, and will take an occasional free pass. His career numbers are poor estimates for what his '06 production will be like. Chances are very good that this year he'll hit at least as well as he did year. If you buy OPS as a reasaonble judge of hitting contribution, then Crisp is a better overall hitter than Loretta. Yes, Loretta will probably sport the better OBP this year, but the deficit will be small and Crisp has enough other advantages to make up for it.

Posted by: Jason at May 24, 2006 11:09 AM

Certainly having Youk on base at the top of the order helps, but Crisp brings speed to the top.

Basestealing is overrated as we know, but whereas a Youkilis might go from first to third on an Ortiz double, Crisp might reasonably be expected to wheel around third and cross the plate.

On base less, sure, but perhaps a bit more capable of scoring when he is on. And Youkilis in the bottom of the order means the bottom part will have a better chance of scoring in a given inning. more people on at the bottom means the top comes up sooner and more often with men on base, which is good in my book.

Posted by: Matt Mackey at May 24, 2006 11:29 AM

I agree that Youk is playing fantastic, lets talk about some of the web gems he is making at 1st, no one is missing Kentucky Fried Kevin anymore not that anyone ever was. What is wrong with stretching out the lineup a bit and dropping him down Vtek needs some help down there badly. Coco was born to be a lead off hitter and the CF of the future. With Youk at 7 or 8 he can be the Mueller of 2006. I understand that no one in the AL is suppose to try to steal bases, but he is a much bigger threat on the basepaths than anyone we have had in awhile. Thankfully Theo is 5 steps ahead of all of us and will get it right.

Mr. Pinto I apologize publically for busting your balls about saying that Jays/Rays was The Game of the Day rather than Sox/Yanks.

Posted by: Chris Gallagher at May 24, 2006 11:34 AM

Putting Youk 7 or 8 makes very little sense. Why would you want one of you biggest on-base threats to get FEWER at bats during the course of the season?

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak at May 24, 2006 01:43 PM

Crisp will be leading off due to his speed. Loretta in case you missed it has raised his average from the Mendoza line to 300 and goes to the opposite field quite well. Youk will probably bat 7th with the ex marlins going 8 and 9.

Posted by: Wayne at May 25, 2006 06:08 AM

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