April 20, 2006
Injuries and Mechanics
A scout describes how Barry Bonds' knees and elbow hurt his production:
But it's possible that Bonds simply is hurting too much to approach peak efficiency ever again.
As a left-handed batter, Bonds is significantly hampered by his particular combination of injuries. "because of his right knee, he lacks a firm base when he swings," the scout said. "And because of his left arm" -- the dominant arm for a left-handed hitter -- "he can't get full extension. It's a double-whammy."
Even when he hit a monstrous double Tuesday night -- it would have been a homer in many parks -- Bonds' form was flawed.
"It was almost like a one-handed swing. One-and-a-half handed," Alou said.
My good friend Jim Storer called yesterday to ask what I thought was the probability of Bonds breaking Aaron's record, and how that had changed since before the season started. I had the probability of Bonds catching Aaron low. There seemed to be a very good chance that the injuries would hamper him to the point that he couldn't play long enough to get the 48 homers needed. I'd say there was a 20% chance coming into the season, but after watching Barry play, that's down to 5% and that's being generous.
What's really interesting is the probability of passing Ruth is also dropping. While I didn't believe it was a given Bonds would pass Ruth this season, the odds were pretty high it would happen, 80 or 90%. I'd say it's closer to 50/50 now. If he plays the whole season, he'll manage to put seven balls beyond the fence. But at some point, teams will stop fearing a hitter with a batting average below the Mendoza line, and his OBA will drop accordingly. At that point, he stops being valuable to the team, and the Giants will need to choose between a record and winning the division. And Bonds will need to decide if it's worth the physical pain to continue to pursue the record.
Posted by David Pinto at
08:15 AM
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Injuries
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given how well Bonds hit in spring training [11x23, 4HR] this seems too pessimistic. Maybe he needs another period of extended time off or warmer weather, but I'd bet he'll start hitting again.
I realize you can argue away the spring training statistics to a degree, but last month I don't recall reading about his one-handed swings. I don't see him, so I don't know whether there's been a change or not.
Agreed, and if he had a bat 40 PA in July nobody would care. I think it a bit too early to say he is done.
(This has nothing to do with the fact I fantasy season is depending upon him)
I can't believe the talk that he is hurting the Giants. He still has a .511 OBP and the Giants haven't won a game in which he has not started. He's still the best player on that team, and it is still so freaking early. Manny Ramirez doesn't have a HR either- he must be done too.
His batting avergae on balls hit in play is below 20%, 1/3 below league and his own track record and average. This "Bonds is Done" talk sounds a lot like wishful thinking.
It's hard for me to believe that the Giants would bench Bonds, no matter how poorly he plays. Therefore, he will play as often as he wants to or as often as his health will permit.
Given that, it seems almost certain that he will pass Ruth at some point this year. Aaron, of course, is much less likely.
"I can't believe the talk that he is hurting the Giants. He still has a .511 OBP and the Giants haven't won a game in which he has not started. He's still the best player on that team, and it is still so freaking early. Manny Ramirez doesn't have a HR either- he must be done too."
Manny's 8 years younger than Bonds and doesn't have the injury history Bonds has.