That was one sweet victory!

It wasn't until getting the moment-by-moment updates via a RSS reader that I realized the true extent of how awesome Dave's job is. Thanks! Go Loretta!!!!

This was a great Patriot's Day game, and not just because of the walk-off. It was see-saw all the way; I think the lead shifted at least four or five times.

Trot returns in fine form... Can't wait until Coco is back... and Manny is showing signs of life... This team is already fearsome. First place, 9 and 4 record.

Whatta day.

NOTE: In 2003, the Sox lost a ton of one-run games. The difference from the Tito era to me demonstrates that managers do, in fact, have an impact on close games, even though some will still say "they don't throw the pitches/swing the bats." The Sox should have won 100 games and gone all the way in '03; they were at least as strong as the '04 team. The problem was Grady Little.

Not much to say after today's game...Boston did the things that made them great in '04, fighting back when they were down and (finally) getting the big 2-out hits when they needed them. Obviously its too early to make any grand predictions, but it is nice to see a very "'05 White-Sox-like" 5-0 record in 1-run games.

One would think that after Boston's bullpen managed to give up 4 runs over the last 4 innings of the game, there'd be something to complain about. But the numbers don't really show how well Tavarez, Seanez, Foulke, and Timlin threw. Seanez walked one, but he k'd two, and other then the one mistake to Everett (which was almost foul anyway) he was great. Tavarez didn't give a hit.

Foulke was perfect in the 8th, and Beltre hit a good pitch for a single, but he showed that he probably shouldn't be allowed to throw more then 20 pitches an outing yet. Timlin let an inherrited runner score, like he did all last year, but if the gb he induced were a few feet to the left, it would have been an inning-ending double play. All in all, a great game, and better pitched (by Boston at least) then the score indicates.

Or, the 1 run game record shows that they're very lucky to be 9-4 so far, luck that will even out when the Sox start to play half-decent teams after a cream puff opening month schedule.

That's what I thought about Chicago...last year's statistically luckiest team. But it didn't quite work out that way. Further, most of the 1-run wins have been coming when lots of guys get on base, but nobody comes through to drive them in.

Today: 5 LOB each
Sun: 9 men LOB vs Mariners 5.
Fri. 11 LOB vs Mariners 2.
4/8: 8 LOB vs Orioles 5.
4/5: 7 LOB vs Rangers 9
Totals: 40 LOB vs Opp. 26

My point is that in the 1-run games it has won, Boston has had far more opportunity to bust the game open then their opponents. I know over the course of a year things like 1-run wins/losses tend to even out, at least a little bit, but so do teams stranding lots of runners. Sabermetrics does typically denounce the idea of clutch hitting, after all.

So no, by the end of the year I don't expect them to be perfect in 1-run games. But you also can't expect them to have almost half their games decided by only one run, given the strength of their offense. I recognize the ease of their opening schedule, though I will point out that it's not that easy to win on the road, where they are 5-1 this year, compared to 4-2 so far at home. Also, Seattle hasn't been too bad this year. They took 2/3 from the Angels and came into Fenway having taken 2/3 from the Indians at the Jake.

Gurk: The Sox have been playing most of their games at far less than 100%... That is, without their leadoff hitter, their right-fielder, a middle reliever, and one of their starting pitchers.

They've also played very well on the road, and have faced pretty decent teams (Toronto, for example). Unlike the Yankees, they've yet to get a free ride against a team like the Royals.

So your argument is pretty thin stuff. If anything, the Sox are a few weeks away from being up to full strength. Boston fans have every reason to continue to expect great things from this roster.

Also, I forgot to mention that in addition to the above disadvantages to date, the heart of the lineup -- Manny Ramirez -- has been in an awful opening slump. Once he starts producing (2 for 4 today) you'll see a lot fewer LOB.

Guardado has been absolutely awful. I was very mad at management last year for not trading him at the deadline, when he was having a good year, the team wasn't, and he would've gotten them some prospects. The way he's going this year, no one's going to be interested.

I doubt the Red Sox can sustain this level of success in one run games, but the offense hasn't really gotten itself sorted out yet, and once it does, they won't have to. They've been lucky to a degree so far, but those wins are in the bank and the team is only going to get stronger from here on out.

I love it when Sox fans crow this early in the season, it usually means the team is about to take a nosedive. The Sox's run differential so far shows them as not even a 90 win team. This month also has them twice playing 4 of the 5 worst teams in the league (okay, so the Yanks got the Royals), and I'll commend them for a good start, but it hardly shows them poised to dominate this year. Where's their infield? Besides Shilling and Beckett (who are BIG injury risks), who is their starting pitching? Maybe I'm biased (go yanks!), but color me unimpressed.

I'm not a bosox or yanks fan, Gurk, so I'll field this one...
As a yankee fan, you cannot seriously be asking where Boston's starting pitching is? Schilling, Beckett may be injury risks, but good lord, man, the Yankee's ace is 40 and has no cartilage in his knees, their number two starter (Mussina) is pretty awful, and Chacon is terrible. Pavano and Wright are pretty much useless, and Wang, who has nasty stuff, is still young and is hit-and-miss. I think Boston's bullpen, besides the closer position, is way better than the collection the Yanks have assembled this season (Tanyon Sturze? Kyle Farnsworth?). As far as the offense, sure, the Yankees offense is better - I mean, with all the money invested it better be. Giambi is better than Youkilis, Jeter and A rod are better than Gonzalez and Lowell (although Gonzalez is a way better defensive SS than Jeter.) Varitek and Loretta are better than Posada and Cano. Ramirez is better than anybody in the Yanks outfield, Sheff is better than Nixon, and Crisp and Damon are a wash, at lweast this season I'm guessing. Ortiz is a better DH than Bernie or Pena or whoever else the Yanks trot out there this season. The yankees are a poor defensive team with the exception of ARod and Damon (although Damon has a bad throwing arm); Boston's defense is a bit better, but not enough to make a difference. I think that unless somebody's staff breaks down entirely, these two teams are pretty evenly matched, with the exception of the middle relief, where Boston has a clear advantage, and in major-league-ready prospects, where Boston has Lester and perhaps DiNardo ready to join the big-league club; all the yankees' best prospects are at AA or below.
And whatever happened to Aaron Small?
So I guess I agree with you in that Boston's not going to dominate the division, but you can't honestly believe that Boston's pitching staff is a terrible injury risk without at least acknowledging that the Yanks staff is just a mess right now. I think both teams will win between 90-95 games.

Well said david...I'm biased too, but I typically try to keep a clear head in stuff like this, even if I am still being optimistic. Run differential means nothing when there have only been 13 games; this isn't like the Nats leading their division after the break last year with more runs allowed then scored. My point was never that the Sox can keep this pace the entire year and hope to win; at some point luck will take over and even things out. All I was trying to point out, though, was that even though the Sox' differential sucks right now, and even though they have won 5 one-run games, it isn't because of a lack of offense, really. The men are getting on, they just aren't coming in quite yet. And when Crisp returns and Manny produces...

Oh, and I just read both Small and Pavano should be coming back within the next month or something like that. After Small regresses back to his true career minor-league self, (Not that he was all that impressive last year, take a look at the teams he managed to throw well against) Pavano will get a chance to answer the questions Beckett has answered his last 3 starts. I'll give Carl the benefit of the doubt and assume his brief ineffectiveness last season was injury related, and that he hasn't really had a fair chance to prove himself yet.

Why does everything have to involve the Red Sox vs. the Yankees?

Sure, New York's rotation is old and suspect. What does that have to do with whether the Red Sox have been unduly lucky in one-run games?

Gurk started it... :)

Also just reading more of what you said Gurk...I don't recall anyone predicting total dominion over the AL East. All anybody mentioned before you brought in the Yanks was that the offense wouldn't be this unproductive much longer, and that there probably won't be as many 1-run games in the future. No one really said anything beyond, "They won't be one-run games IF the pitching stays this good once the hitting comes around."

Thanks, the other josh, for your comments.
I agree that Pavano, when healthy, should do all right. Of course, he might only make 15 starts for this team. He's like Kerry Wood - you just cannot reasonably expect hi to stay healthy - a river never runs uphill.
Small is a really nice story but can't really pitch. His minor league numbers are average and his numbers last year, minus the won-lost, are below average. I don't think Torre will give him more than a few starts, but we'll see.
Chacon is just an awful pitcher and I cannot believe the Yankees were so fooled by his era and won-loss last year to keep him in the rotataion this year. Of course, they don't really have anyone better..

Alright, alright, yes I started it, and it'll be settled on the field no matter what I bluster. I disagree that Chacon is an awful pitcher, he pitched way over his head last year, but he should be a perfectly acceptable 4-5th starter (or more likely long relief). You can't tell me that at this point Chacon is a worse option than Clement or Wells, and I would say he's at least within spitting distance of Wakefield's quality. Also, the Yanks are perfectly aware of Chacon's troubling peripherals, it's just that with Pavano out (again) and Wright sucking (again), and Small out (whatever), there really isn't an option. They've already partly shifted him to the bullpen, skipping his every other start. And finally, this thread is about Yanks-Red Sox b/c it's a germane topic of the main post. You want to discuss the simmering White Sox-Royals rivalry go up a half dozen posts and comment there. No one has to read my nonsense.

Ehh, I agree with most of your post, but I'm going to have to argue about Chacon being as good an option as Clement and Wells. To me the difference here is simply a matter of upside. If Wells is healthy again and gets 20-25 starts throwing like he did last year, he'll post the better numbers. If nothing else, he'll win a ton of games at home. As for Clement, I watched him throw in Baltimore and he was absolutely nasty. He was also an Allstar last year with a 3.3 era before the break, so the potential for greatness is still there. As for Chacon...well, at least he stays healthy.