February 28, 2006
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Runs Created Against First Basemen
Here's how the first basemen do at preventing runs on balls in play:
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Runs Created Against First Basemen, Original Model (minimum 200 fieldable balls in play)
| Player | Fieldable Balls In Play | Actual Outs by Fielder | Predicted Outs by Fielder | RCA | Predicted RCA | RCA/27 Outs | Predicted RCA/27 | Runs Saved/27 Outs |
| Jose Hernandez | 240 | 81 | 65.83 | 11.35 | 19.00 | 3.78 | 7.79 | 4.010 |
| John Olerud | 311 | 109 | 92.16 | 13.58 | 23.70 | 3.36 | 6.94 | 3.580 |
| Chad A Tracy | 472 | 159 | 134.45 | 29.28 | 39.32 | 4.97 | 7.90 | 2.924 |
| Ben Broussard | 711 | 223 | 185.89 | 37.53 | 49.87 | 4.54 | 7.24 | 2.698 |
| Paul Konerko | 985 | 294 | 261.08 | 51.80 | 69.55 | 4.76 | 7.19 | 2.435 |
| Doug Mientkiewicz | 522 | 158 | 134.64 | 26.84 | 34.01 | 4.59 | 6.82 | 2.235 |
| Darin Erstad | 972 | 313 | 272.80 | 38.36 | 54.52 | 3.31 | 5.40 | 2.087 |
| Ryan J Howard | 474 | 155 | 144.41 | 25.81 | 35.01 | 4.50 | 6.54 | 2.049 |
| Kevin Millar | 681 | 223 | 207.71 | 36.54 | 48.66 | 4.42 | 6.32 | 1.900 |
| Daryle Ward | 608 | 177 | 157.24 | 31.45 | 37.34 | 4.80 | 6.41 | 1.613 |
| Derrek Lee | 1029 | 298 | 270.98 | 52.82 | 62.70 | 4.79 | 6.25 | 1.462 |
| Justin Morneau | 922 | 263 | 256.38 | 43.46 | 56.16 | 4.46 | 5.91 | 1.453 |
| Mike Lamb | 306 | 87 | 82.25 | 17.93 | 21.22 | 5.56 | 6.96 | 1.400 |
| Nick Johnson | 901 | 294 | 282.15 | 35.75 | 47.62 | 3.28 | 4.56 | 1.273 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1121 | 350 | 309.40 | 71.76 | 77.88 | 5.54 | 6.80 | 1.261 |
| Shea Hillenbrand | 445 | 133 | 133.27 | 22.22 | 28.44 | 4.51 | 5.76 | 1.250 |
| Travis Lee | 708 | 245 | 214.15 | 42.10 | 46.28 | 4.64 | 5.83 | 1.196 |
| Matt Stairs | 434 | 115 | 110.00 | 32.99 | 35.98 | 7.75 | 8.83 | 1.086 |
| Albert Pujols | 1002 | 329 | 302.94 | 57.80 | 64.84 | 4.74 | 5.78 | 1.035 |
| Lyle Overbay | 917 | 273 | 252.84 | 47.00 | 52.53 | 4.65 | 5.61 | 0.961 |
| Chris B Shelton | 535 | 156 | 150.18 | 32.11 | 35.93 | 5.56 | 6.46 | 0.903 |
| Dan R Johnson | 641 | 193 | 193.02 | 33.89 | 40.28 | 4.74 | 5.64 | 0.894 |
| Lance Niekro | 394 | 136 | 120.38 | 19.06 | 20.53 | 3.78 | 4.61 | 0.821 |
| Tony Clark | 464 | 130 | 128.20 | 28.51 | 31.88 | 5.92 | 6.71 | 0.792 |
| Todd Helton | 997 | 301 | 286.52 | 69.91 | 74.27 | 6.27 | 7.00 | 0.728 |
| Scott Hatteberg | 344 | 103 | 101.56 | 23.57 | 25.73 | 6.18 | 6.84 | 0.663 |
| Tino Martinez | 575 | 181 | 144.70 | 36.71 | 32.82 | 5.48 | 6.12 | 0.648 |
| Mike Sweeney | 372 | 112 | 112.99 | 19.94 | 22.53 | 4.81 | 5.38 | 0.577 |
| Hee Seop Choi | 545 | 170 | 157.74 | 33.37 | 34.20 | 5.30 | 5.85 | 0.555 |
| Eric Hinske | 681 | 198 | 204.16 | 31.63 | 36.58 | 4.31 | 4.84 | 0.524 |
| Julio Franco | 366 | 85 | 92.45 | 20.99 | 24.17 | 6.67 | 7.06 | 0.394 |
| Rafael Palmeiro | 553 | 146 | 157.18 | 30.40 | 34.52 | 5.62 | 5.93 | 0.309 |
| Richie Sexson | 1067 | 276 | 275.00 | 58.96 | 60.54 | 5.77 | 5.94 | 0.176 |
| Lance Berkman | 531 | 146 | 155.13 | 32.57 | 35.05 | 6.02 | 6.10 | 0.076 |
| Brad Eldred | 256 | 65 | 67.08 | 16.99 | 17.66 | 7.06 | 7.11 | 0.050 |
| Mark Sweeney | 249 | 81 | 76.91 | 12.64 | 12.08 | 4.21 | 4.24 | 0.029 |
| J.T. Snow | 639 | 197 | 193.74 | 46.25 | 42.14 | 6.34 | 5.87 | -0.466 |
| Adam LaRoche | 875 | 249 | 251.10 | 65.64 | 61.64 | 7.12 | 6.63 | -0.490 |
| Sean Casey | 875 | 258 | 256.57 | 48.86 | 43.15 | 5.11 | 4.54 | -0.573 |
| Eduardo Perez | 227 | 70 | 65.09 | 15.90 | 13.06 | 6.13 | 5.42 | -0.714 |
| Carlos Delgado | 888 | 263 | 269.56 | 65.40 | 58.01 | 6.71 | 5.81 | -0.903 |
| Jim Thome | 306 | 78 | 83.76 | 19.99 | 18.60 | 6.92 | 5.99 | -0.927 |
| Olmedo Saenz | 379 | 81 | 94.72 | 28.06 | 28.60 | 9.35 | 8.15 | -1.203 |
| Carlos Pena | 329 | 100 | 108.13 | 19.68 | 15.43 | 5.31 | 3.85 | -1.460 |
| Phil Nevin | 457 | 142 | 144.26 | 39.96 | 31.00 | 7.60 | 5.80 | -1.795 |
| Jason Giambi | 430 | 98 | 110.00 | 32.18 | 24.67 | 8.87 | 6.06 | -2.809 |
Kevin Millar is not known for his glove, but he does fine in this analysis. From watching him last year, I remember a few times he ranged to his right for balls. Maybe all that time with Olerud rubbed off on him.
And please notice that as bad as Jason Giambi plays the position, he only cost the Yankees eight runs with his glove. That's less than a game.
Kevin Millar is not known for his glove, but he does fine in this analysis. From watching him last year, I remember a few times he ranged to his right for balls. Maybe all that time with Olerud rubbed off on him.
Olerud has nothing to do with it. If you check your own PMR data from last year, you'll see that he ranked second best, and his 2004 Defensive Charts show that he did an above average job on grounders to his right.
The problem with Millar at 1st (and I admit, this is totally a naked eye observation) was that on a number of occasions he would range too far to his right and take a ball that the 2nd baseman would easily have gotten, and then either have to sprint to 1st to try to get the out (and often not make it) or toss to the the confused pitcher, who wouldn't quite be covering 1st because he thought it was the 2nd baseman's play.
Again, I don't have numbers to back this up, but it seemed like a daily occurance last season.
Re Giambi only costing the Yankees 8 runs with his glove: this is only looking at his fielding from the perspective of range. For firstbasemen it is equally if not more important to somehow measure their ability to handle bad throws from the other infielders (and their technique around the bag, such as stretching for a throw). Some 1B with poor range have excellent gloves, and vise versa.
Much as catchers are sometimes compared by looking at the difference in team ERAs, is there any similar data for 1B, such as comparing the stats of Bell, Utley and Rollins when Thome was at 1B vs Howard?