Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
February 28, 2006
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Runs Created Against First Basemen

Here's how the first basemen do at preventing runs on balls in play:

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Runs Created Against First Basemen, Original Model (minimum 200 fieldable balls in play)
PlayerFieldable Balls In PlayActual Outs by FielderPredicted Outs by FielderRCAPredicted RCARCA/27 OutsPredicted RCA/27Runs Saved/27 Outs
Jose Hernandez240 81 65.83 11.35 19.00 3.78 7.79 4.010
John Olerud311 109 92.16 13.58 23.70 3.36 6.94 3.580
Chad A Tracy472 159 134.45 29.28 39.32 4.97 7.90 2.924
Ben Broussard711 223 185.89 37.53 49.87 4.54 7.24 2.698
Paul Konerko985 294 261.08 51.80 69.55 4.76 7.19 2.435
Doug Mientkiewicz522 158 134.64 26.84 34.01 4.59 6.82 2.235
Darin Erstad972 313 272.80 38.36 54.52 3.31 5.40 2.087
Ryan J Howard474 155 144.41 25.81 35.01 4.50 6.54 2.049
Kevin Millar681 223 207.71 36.54 48.66 4.42 6.32 1.900
Daryle Ward608 177 157.24 31.45 37.34 4.80 6.41 1.613
Derrek Lee1029 298 270.98 52.82 62.70 4.79 6.25 1.462
Justin Morneau922 263 256.38 43.46 56.16 4.46 5.91 1.453
Mike Lamb306 87 82.25 17.93 21.22 5.56 6.96 1.400
Nick Johnson901 294 282.15 35.75 47.62 3.28 4.56 1.273
Mark Teixeira1121 350 309.40 71.76 77.88 5.54 6.80 1.261
Shea Hillenbrand445 133 133.27 22.22 28.44 4.51 5.76 1.250
Travis Lee708 245 214.15 42.10 46.28 4.64 5.83 1.196
Matt Stairs434 115 110.00 32.99 35.98 7.75 8.83 1.086
Albert Pujols1002 329 302.94 57.80 64.84 4.74 5.78 1.035
Lyle Overbay917 273 252.84 47.00 52.53 4.65 5.61 0.961
Chris B Shelton535 156 150.18 32.11 35.93 5.56 6.46 0.903
Dan R Johnson641 193 193.02 33.89 40.28 4.74 5.64 0.894
Lance Niekro394 136 120.38 19.06 20.53 3.78 4.61 0.821
Tony Clark464 130 128.20 28.51 31.88 5.92 6.71 0.792
Todd Helton997 301 286.52 69.91 74.27 6.27 7.00 0.728
Scott Hatteberg344 103 101.56 23.57 25.73 6.18 6.84 0.663
Tino Martinez575 181 144.70 36.71 32.82 5.48 6.12 0.648
Mike Sweeney372 112 112.99 19.94 22.53 4.81 5.38 0.577
Hee Seop Choi545 170 157.74 33.37 34.20 5.30 5.85 0.555
Eric Hinske681 198 204.16 31.63 36.58 4.31 4.84 0.524
Julio Franco366 85 92.45 20.99 24.17 6.67 7.06 0.394
Rafael Palmeiro553 146 157.18 30.40 34.52 5.62 5.93 0.309
Richie Sexson1067 276 275.00 58.96 60.54 5.77 5.94 0.176
Lance Berkman531 146 155.13 32.57 35.05 6.02 6.10 0.076
Brad Eldred256 65 67.08 16.99 17.66 7.06 7.11 0.050
Mark Sweeney249 81 76.91 12.64 12.08 4.21 4.24 0.029
J.T. Snow639 197 193.74 46.25 42.14 6.34 5.87 -0.466
Adam LaRoche875 249 251.10 65.64 61.64 7.12 6.63 -0.490
Sean Casey875 258 256.57 48.86 43.15 5.11 4.54 -0.573
Eduardo Perez227 70 65.09 15.90 13.06 6.13 5.42 -0.714
Carlos Delgado888 263 269.56 65.40 58.01 6.71 5.81 -0.903
Jim Thome306 78 83.76 19.99 18.60 6.92 5.99 -0.927
Olmedo Saenz379 81 94.72 28.06 28.60 9.35 8.15 -1.203
Carlos Pena329 100 108.13 19.68 15.43 5.31 3.85 -1.460
Phil Nevin457 142 144.26 39.96 31.00 7.60 5.80 -1.795
Jason Giambi430 98 110.00 32.18 24.67 8.87 6.06 -2.809

Kevin Millar is not known for his glove, but he does fine in this analysis. From watching him last year, I remember a few times he ranged to his right for balls. Maybe all that time with Olerud rubbed off on him.

And please notice that as bad as Jason Giambi plays the position, he only cost the Yankees eight runs with his glove. That's less than a game.


Comments

Kevin Millar is not known for his glove, but he does fine in this analysis. From watching him last year, I remember a few times he ranged to his right for balls. Maybe all that time with Olerud rubbed off on him.

Olerud has nothing to do with it. If you check your own PMR data from last year, you'll see that he ranked second best, and his 2004 Defensive Charts show that he did an above average job on grounders to his right.

Posted by: BosoxBob at February 28, 2006 11:50 PM

The problem with Millar at 1st (and I admit, this is totally a naked eye observation) was that on a number of occasions he would range too far to his right and take a ball that the 2nd baseman would easily have gotten, and then either have to sprint to 1st to try to get the out (and often not make it) or toss to the the confused pitcher, who wouldn't quite be covering 1st because he thought it was the 2nd baseman's play.

Again, I don't have numbers to back this up, but it seemed like a daily occurance last season.

Posted by: David Dean at March 1, 2006 12:05 AM

Re Giambi only costing the Yankees 8 runs with his glove: this is only looking at his fielding from the perspective of range. For firstbasemen it is equally if not more important to somehow measure their ability to handle bad throws from the other infielders (and their technique around the bag, such as stretching for a throw). Some 1B with poor range have excellent gloves, and vise versa.

Much as catchers are sometimes compared by looking at the difference in team ERAs, is there any similar data for 1B, such as comparing the stats of Bell, Utley and Rollins when Thome was at 1B vs Howard?

Posted by: George S at March 1, 2006 08:57 PM
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