February 25, 2006
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Runs Created Against Third Basemen
Here's the runs saved data for the third basemen:
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Runs Created Against Third Basemen, Original Model (minimum 300 fieldable balls in play)
Player | Fieldable Balls In Play | Actual Outs by Fielder | Predicted Outs by Fielder | RCA | Predicted RCA | RCA/27 Outs | Predicted RCA/27 | Runs Saved/27 Outs |
Wilson Betemit | 373 | 123 | 102.29 | 15.55 | 27.93 | 3.41 | 7.37 | 3.958 |
Freddy Sanchez | 446 | 180 | 148.78 | 21.96 | 36.21 | 3.29 | 6.57 | 3.278 |
Geoff Blum | 301 | 118 | 97.38 | 15.14 | 23.50 | 3.47 | 6.51 | 3.050 |
Chipper Jones | 695 | 235 | 212.40 | 41.04 | 60.57 | 4.72 | 7.70 | 2.984 |
Corey Koskie | 572 | 214 | 179.63 | 34.69 | 47.40 | 4.38 | 7.12 | 2.748 |
Pedro Feliz | 529 | 191 | 155.23 | 28.34 | 36.86 | 4.01 | 6.41 | 2.406 |
Bill Hall | 347 | 121 | 115.83 | 20.43 | 29.68 | 4.56 | 6.92 | 2.361 |
Morgan Ensberg | 1116 | 400 | 348.31 | 70.33 | 91.17 | 4.75 | 7.07 | 2.319 |
Jeff Cirillo | 304 | 102 | 93.89 | 20.82 | 26.56 | 5.51 | 7.64 | 2.125 |
Joe Crede | 976 | 348 | 306.29 | 49.61 | 66.84 | 3.85 | 5.89 | 2.043 |
Brandon Inge | 1397 | 506 | 457.59 | 106.89 | 131.29 | 5.70 | 7.75 | 2.043 |
Scott Rolen | 433 | 176 | 148.12 | 23.05 | 30.52 | 3.54 | 5.56 | 2.027 |
Adrian Beltre | 1242 | 396 | 357.19 | 90.94 | 108.51 | 6.20 | 8.20 | 2.002 |
Chone Figgins | 373 | 128 | 103.59 | 25.21 | 27.68 | 5.32 | 7.21 | 1.896 |
Alex S Gonzalez | 707 | 236 | 214.48 | 60.74 | 70.17 | 6.95 | 8.83 | 1.885 |
Rob Mackowiak | 426 | 158 | 140.50 | 30.78 | 36.93 | 5.26 | 7.10 | 1.838 |
Bill Mueller | 1103 | 353 | 312.94 | 102.45 | 111.37 | 7.84 | 9.61 | 1.772 |
Melvin Mora | 1149 | 401 | 361.65 | 84.04 | 99.09 | 5.66 | 7.40 | 1.740 |
Edwin Encarnacion | 404 | 168 | 136.40 | 39.13 | 40.35 | 6.29 | 7.99 | 1.699 |
Alex Rodriguez | 1328 | 395 | 350.67 | 99.71 | 109.33 | 6.82 | 8.42 | 1.602 |
Abraham O Nunez | 698 | 256 | 225.84 | 48.33 | 55.61 | 5.10 | 6.65 | 1.551 |
Mike Lowell | 983 | 339 | 308.19 | 77.92 | 87.92 | 6.21 | 7.70 | 1.497 |
Eric Chavez | 1222 | 408 | 380.75 | 74.83 | 89.22 | 4.95 | 6.33 | 1.374 |
Garrett Atkins | 989 | 333 | 313.98 | 81.32 | 92.57 | 6.59 | 7.96 | 1.367 |
David Bell | 1066 | 406 | 360.53 | 87.56 | 95.68 | 5.82 | 7.17 | 1.343 |
Aaron Boone | 1174 | 380 | 343.69 | 102.92 | 106.18 | 7.31 | 8.34 | 1.029 |
Dallas L McPherson | 443 | 122 | 102.19 | 35.41 | 32.58 | 7.84 | 8.61 | 0.771 |
Hank Blalock | 1304 | 398 | 385.85 | 97.70 | 103.03 | 6.63 | 7.21 | 0.581 |
Shea Hillenbrand | 404 | 130 | 122.75 | 31.27 | 31.50 | 6.49 | 6.93 | 0.434 |
Aramis Ramirez | 853 | 279 | 267.97 | 67.17 | 68.25 | 6.50 | 6.88 | 0.376 |
Mike Cuddyer | 745 | 243 | 234.36 | 58.17 | 59.33 | 6.46 | 6.84 | 0.373 |
Vinny Castilla | 904 | 344 | 337.16 | 52.72 | 54.18 | 4.14 | 4.34 | 0.200 |
Mark T Teahen | 1034 | 340 | 312.64 | 101.71 | 95.84 | 8.08 | 8.28 | 0.200 |
Edgardo Alfonzo | 727 | 223 | 219.04 | 58.44 | 58.56 | 7.08 | 7.22 | 0.143 |
Sean Burroughs | 581 | 199 | 186.94 | 35.71 | 34.14 | 4.84 | 4.93 | 0.086 |
David A Wright | 1288 | 432 | 408.09 | 111.65 | 106.51 | 6.98 | 7.05 | 0.069 |
Joe Randa | 1106 | 349 | 340.28 | 101.14 | 97.97 | 7.82 | 7.77 | -0.052 |
Russell Branyan | 360 | 116 | 111.71 | 35.27 | 33.28 | 8.21 | 8.05 | -0.164 |
Troy Glaus | 1207 | 411 | 402.21 | 114.59 | 105.61 | 7.53 | 7.09 | -0.438 |
Jorge L Cantu | 438 | 113 | 126.32 | 50.88 | 49.23 | 12.16 | 10.52 | -1.636 |
Interestingly, Chipper Jones makes a big move up when you look at runs vs. just outs. Maybe there's a tendancy for balls down the line in Atlanta to go for doubles and triples, so anything you stop saves a lot of bases. On the other hand, Figgins drops a lot. I wonder if positioning of the left fielder has anything to do with it? Or maybe Chipper just plays closer to the line all the time?
I'd hazard a guess that since you see Betemit see a large jump, too (if I'm reading the graph correctly) it might just be due to the 3rd basemen placement the Braves use?
i was surprised to see morgan ensberg ranked so high -
was NOT surprised to see freddy sanchez at the top.
NOT surprised to see bill hall at the top neither. not sure why the brewers don't respect him like he deserves...
i WAS surprised to see eric chavez and arod so far down and chipper so far up
Could have to due with Furcal who was rated on of the best. With that cannon he has, Braves third sackers can probably play the line much more often.
It's just how the Pirates work, they replace Sanchez (3.278 Runs Saved per 27) with Joe Randa (-.052_.
kinda surprised to see wright towards the botom..even though he did have 24 errors last year (only 8 after AS break i think)