Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
February 25, 2006
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Runs Created Against Third Basemen

Here's the runs saved data for the third basemen:

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Runs Created Against Third Basemen, Original Model (minimum 300 fieldable balls in play)
PlayerFieldable Balls In PlayActual Outs by FielderPredicted Outs by FielderRCAPredicted RCARCA/27 OutsPredicted RCA/27Runs Saved/27 Outs
Wilson Betemit373 123 102.29 15.55 27.93 3.41 7.37 3.958
Freddy Sanchez446 180 148.78 21.96 36.21 3.29 6.57 3.278
Geoff Blum301 118 97.38 15.14 23.50 3.47 6.51 3.050
Chipper Jones695 235 212.40 41.04 60.57 4.72 7.70 2.984
Corey Koskie572 214 179.63 34.69 47.40 4.38 7.12 2.748
Pedro Feliz529 191 155.23 28.34 36.86 4.01 6.41 2.406
Bill Hall347 121 115.83 20.43 29.68 4.56 6.92 2.361
Morgan Ensberg1116 400 348.31 70.33 91.17 4.75 7.07 2.319
Jeff Cirillo304 102 93.89 20.82 26.56 5.51 7.64 2.125
Joe Crede976 348 306.29 49.61 66.84 3.85 5.89 2.043
Brandon Inge1397 506 457.59 106.89 131.29 5.70 7.75 2.043
Scott Rolen433 176 148.12 23.05 30.52 3.54 5.56 2.027
Adrian Beltre1242 396 357.19 90.94 108.51 6.20 8.20 2.002
Chone Figgins373 128 103.59 25.21 27.68 5.32 7.21 1.896
Alex S Gonzalez707 236 214.48 60.74 70.17 6.95 8.83 1.885
Rob Mackowiak426 158 140.50 30.78 36.93 5.26 7.10 1.838
Bill Mueller1103 353 312.94 102.45 111.37 7.84 9.61 1.772
Melvin Mora1149 401 361.65 84.04 99.09 5.66 7.40 1.740
Edwin Encarnacion404 168 136.40 39.13 40.35 6.29 7.99 1.699
Alex Rodriguez1328 395 350.67 99.71 109.33 6.82 8.42 1.602
Abraham O Nunez698 256 225.84 48.33 55.61 5.10 6.65 1.551
Mike Lowell983 339 308.19 77.92 87.92 6.21 7.70 1.497
Eric Chavez1222 408 380.75 74.83 89.22 4.95 6.33 1.374
Garrett Atkins989 333 313.98 81.32 92.57 6.59 7.96 1.367
David Bell1066 406 360.53 87.56 95.68 5.82 7.17 1.343
Aaron Boone1174 380 343.69 102.92 106.18 7.31 8.34 1.029
Dallas L McPherson443 122 102.19 35.41 32.58 7.84 8.61 0.771
Hank Blalock1304 398 385.85 97.70 103.03 6.63 7.21 0.581
Shea Hillenbrand404 130 122.75 31.27 31.50 6.49 6.93 0.434
Aramis Ramirez853 279 267.97 67.17 68.25 6.50 6.88 0.376
Mike Cuddyer745 243 234.36 58.17 59.33 6.46 6.84 0.373
Vinny Castilla904 344 337.16 52.72 54.18 4.14 4.34 0.200
Mark T Teahen1034 340 312.64 101.71 95.84 8.08 8.28 0.200
Edgardo Alfonzo727 223 219.04 58.44 58.56 7.08 7.22 0.143
Sean Burroughs581 199 186.94 35.71 34.14 4.84 4.93 0.086
David A Wright1288 432 408.09 111.65 106.51 6.98 7.05 0.069
Joe Randa1106 349 340.28 101.14 97.97 7.82 7.77 -0.052
Russell Branyan360 116 111.71 35.27 33.28 8.21 8.05 -0.164
Troy Glaus1207 411 402.21 114.59 105.61 7.53 7.09 -0.438
Jorge L Cantu438 113 126.32 50.88 49.23 12.16 10.52 -1.636

Interestingly, Chipper Jones makes a big move up when you look at runs vs. just outs. Maybe there's a tendancy for balls down the line in Atlanta to go for doubles and triples, so anything you stop saves a lot of bases. On the other hand, Figgins drops a lot. I wonder if positioning of the left fielder has anything to do with it? Or maybe Chipper just plays closer to the line all the time?


Comments

I'd hazard a guess that since you see Betemit see a large jump, too (if I'm reading the graph correctly) it might just be due to the 3rd basemen placement the Braves use?

Posted by: pawnking at February 25, 2006 05:01 PM

i was surprised to see morgan ensberg ranked so high -

was NOT surprised to see freddy sanchez at the top.

NOT surprised to see bill hall at the top neither. not sure why the brewers don't respect him like he deserves...

i WAS surprised to see eric chavez and arod so far down and chipper so far up

Posted by: lisa gray at February 25, 2006 05:30 PM

Could have to due with Furcal who was rated on of the best. With that cannon he has, Braves third sackers can probably play the line much more often.

Posted by: Laurent at February 25, 2006 06:14 PM

It's just how the Pirates work, they replace Sanchez (3.278 Runs Saved per 27) with Joe Randa (-.052_.

Posted by: Mike A. at February 25, 2006 06:28 PM

kinda surprised to see wright towards the botom..even though he did have 24 errors last year (only 8 after AS break i think)

Posted by: tony flynn at February 26, 2006 05:08 PM
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