Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Pitchers

February 06, 2006

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Pitchers

To complete the nine position tour of range, here are the tables for pitchers. The minimum here is 500 balls in play. That allows us to capture most of the regular starters.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Pitchers, 2005, Original Model
Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Kirk Saarloos	553	41	23.33	0.074	0.042	0.03196
Kenny Rogers	665	49	33.01	0.074	0.050	0.02405
Greg Maddux	728	52	38.90	0.071	0.053	0.01799
Chan Ho Park	501	37	29.08	0.074	0.058	0.01581
Jake Westbrook	693	53	42.09	0.076	0.061	0.01574
Brad Radke	651	31	23.04	0.048	0.035	0.01223
Brett Myers	587	37	30.33	0.063	0.052	0.01136
Kip Wells	562	34	27.70	0.060	0.049	0.01121
Barry Zito	654	36	28.92	0.055	0.044	0.01082
Mark Mulder	659	48	41.34	0.073	0.063	0.01011
Roger Clemens	577	35	30.24	0.061	0.052	0.00825
Jose Lima	597	23	18.66	0.039	0.031	0.00727
Livan Hernandez	796	45	39.53	0.057	0.050	0.00687
Mark Redman	574	34	30.47	0.059	0.053	0.00614
Dontrelle Willis	716	39	34.64	0.054	0.048	0.00609
Aaron Harang	643	27	23.41	0.042	0.036	0.00558
Ramon Ortiz	567	25	22.09	0.044	0.039	0.00513
Tomo Ohka	596	27	24.19	0.045	0.041	0.00472
Johan Santana	604	29	26.28	0.048	0.044	0.00450
Carlos Silva	641	30	27.16	0.047	0.042	0.00443
Jake Peavy	521	24	21.87	0.046	0.042	0.00409
Zack Z Greinke	625	26	23.44	0.042	0.038	0.00409
Jamie Moyer	683	27	24.32	0.040	0.036	0.00392
Josh Fogg	571	26	23.86	0.046	0.042	0.00374
Javier Vazquez	626	34	31.74	0.054	0.051	0.00361
Josh Towers	706	32	29.86	0.045	0.042	0.00304
Woody Williams	513	19	17.45	0.037	0.034	0.00302
Matt Clement	582	21	19.28	0.036	0.033	0.00295
Kyle Lohse	607	26	24.28	0.043	0.040	0.00283
Runelvys Hernandez	523	16	14.53	0.031	0.028	0.00281
Derek Lowe	700	53	51.13	0.076	0.073	0.00267
John Patterson	543	16	14.59	0.029	0.027	0.00260
Jon Garland	706	38	36.20	0.054	0.051	0.00255
Pedro Martinez	564	19	17.64	0.034	0.031	0.00241
Noah Lowry	599	29	27.59	0.048	0.046	0.00235
Rodrigo Lopez	702	31	29.45	0.044	0.042	0.00220
Andy Pettitte	643	38	36.71	0.059	0.057	0.00200
Brandon Webb	689	43	41.95	0.062	0.061	0.00152
Brian Moehler	538	28	27.19	0.052	0.051	0.00151
John Smoltz	690	35	33.96	0.051	0.049	0.00151
Jeff Suppan	626	29	28.13	0.046	0.045	0.00139
Mark Buehrle	758	45	44.07	0.059	0.058	0.00122
Brian Lawrence	656	33	32.37	0.050	0.049	0.00095
Cory Lidle	607	30	29.65	0.049	0.049	0.00057
Freddy Garcia	708	28	27.87	0.040	0.039	0.00019
Tim Wakefield	678	24	24.27	0.035	0.036	-0.00040
Mike Mussina	545	27	27.33	0.050	0.050	-0.00061
Mark Hendrickson	633	23	23.51	0.036	0.037	-0.00080
Kris Benson	565	30	30.55	0.053	0.054	-0.00098
Chris Carpenter	667	42	42.99	0.063	0.064	-0.00148
Scott E Kazmir	522	15	15.87	0.029	0.030	-0.00166
Brett Tomko	625	20	21.07	0.032	0.034	-0.00172
Horacio Ramirez	667	43	44.16	0.064	0.066	-0.00174
Brandon Claussen	522	20	20.93	0.038	0.040	-0.00179
Paul Byrd	682	22	23.24	0.032	0.034	-0.00182
Bruce Chen	594	23	24.31	0.039	0.041	-0.00220
Matt Morris	633	26	27.67	0.041	0.044	-0.00264
Joel Pineiro	629	20	21.73	0.032	0.035	-0.00274
Joe Mays	564	23	24.63	0.041	0.044	-0.00289
Tom Glavine	720	42	44.09	0.058	0.061	-0.00290
Gustavo G Chacin	652	24	25.95	0.037	0.040	-0.00299
Chris Capuano	639	27	28.92	0.042	0.045	-0.00301
Jose Contreras	595	23	25.28	0.039	0.042	-0.00383
Bronson Arroyo	688	22	24.66	0.032	0.036	-0.00386
Doug Davis	615	27	29.53	0.044	0.048	-0.00411
Eric Milton	633	17	19.67	0.027	0.031	-0.00422
Brad A Halsey	550	21	23.39	0.038	0.043	-0.00435
John Lackey	598	24	26.70	0.040	0.045	-0.00452
Jason Johnson	718	33	36.44	0.046	0.051	-0.00480
Jason Marquis	664	23	26.42	0.035	0.040	-0.00514
Mike Maroth	683	19	22.62	0.028	0.033	-0.00530
Carlos Zambrano	592	34	37.18	0.057	0.063	-0.00536
Jamey Wright	563	22	25.48	0.039	0.045	-0.00618
Scott Elarton	585	11	14.74	0.019	0.025	-0.00640
Jeff Weaver	677	27	31.35	0.040	0.046	-0.00642
Esteban Loaiza	661	32	36.33	0.048	0.055	-0.00655
Victor Zambrano	532	22	25.55	0.041	0.048	-0.00668
Roy Oswalt	744	34	39.04	0.046	0.052	-0.00678
Tim Hudson	608	39	43.19	0.064	0.071	-0.00689
Doug Waechter	533	9	12.68	0.017	0.024	-0.00690
Bartolo Colon	678	17	22.27	0.025	0.033	-0.00777
Jarrod Washburn	567	16	20.83	0.028	0.037	-0.00852
Randy Johnson	618	23	29.00	0.037	0.047	-0.00970
Danny Haren	649	20	27.02	0.031	0.042	-0.01082
Joe M Blanton	624	18	24.81	0.029	0.040	-0.01091
Ryan Franklin	642	13	20.02	0.020	0.031	-0.01093
Jeff W Francis	594	17	23.50	0.029	0.040	-0.01095
Joe Kennedy	515	14	19.77	0.027	0.038	-0.01120
Cliff Lee	621	11	18.06	0.018	0.029	-0.01138
Jon Lieber	684	28	36.25	0.041	0.053	-0.01206
David Wells	622	15	23.11	0.024	0.037	-0.01304
C.C. Sabathia	574	17	24.76	0.030	0.043	-0.01351
Kevin Millwood	576	18	26.09	0.031	0.045	-0.01405
Brad Penny	555	25	32.86	0.045	0.059	-0.01417
Nate Robertson	624	24	33.38	0.038	0.053	-0.01504
Jeremy Bonderman	574	15	24.26	0.026	0.042	-0.01614
A.J. Burnett	577	19	28.56	0.033	0.049	-0.01657

Probabilistic Model of Range, Pitchers, 2005, Smoothed Visiting Player Model
Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Kirk Saarloos	553	41	23.64	0.074	0.043	0.03140
Kenny Rogers	665	49	33.21	0.074	0.050	0.02374
Chan Ho Park	501	37	28.34	0.074	0.057	0.01729
Greg Maddux	728	52	39.57	0.071	0.054	0.01708
Jake Westbrook	693	53	42.60	0.076	0.061	0.01501
Kip Wells	562	34	26.31	0.060	0.047	0.01368
Mark Mulder	659	48	39.08	0.073	0.059	0.01354
Brett Myers	587	37	30.63	0.063	0.052	0.01085
Barry Zito	654	36	28.99	0.055	0.044	0.01072
Brad Radke	651	31	24.71	0.048	0.038	0.00966
Livan Hernandez	796	45	38.49	0.057	0.048	0.00818
Mark Redman	574	34	29.52	0.059	0.051	0.00781
Jose Lima	597	23	18.61	0.039	0.031	0.00736
Jamie Moyer	683	27	22.17	0.040	0.032	0.00707
Ramon Ortiz	567	25	21.04	0.044	0.037	0.00699
Roger Clemens	577	35	30.99	0.061	0.054	0.00696
Mark Buehrle	758	45	39.93	0.059	0.053	0.00669
Jake Peavy	521	24	21.18	0.046	0.041	0.00541
Matt Clement	582	21	18.00	0.036	0.031	0.00515
Johan Santana	604	29	25.97	0.048	0.043	0.00502
Aaron Harang	643	27	23.78	0.042	0.037	0.00501
Dontrelle Willis	716	39	35.54	0.054	0.050	0.00484
Carlos Silva	641	30	27.28	0.047	0.043	0.00425
John Smoltz	690	35	32.28	0.051	0.047	0.00395
John Patterson	543	16	14.05	0.029	0.026	0.00359
Josh Fogg	571	26	23.96	0.046	0.042	0.00357
Javier Vazquez	626	34	31.83	0.054	0.051	0.00347
Woody Williams	513	19	17.22	0.037	0.034	0.00346
Zack Z Greinke	625	26	23.84	0.042	0.038	0.00346
Jon Garland	706	38	35.57	0.054	0.050	0.00344
Pedro Martinez	564	19	17.09	0.034	0.030	0.00339
Kyle Lohse	607	26	24.39	0.043	0.040	0.00266
Brandon Webb	689	43	41.27	0.062	0.060	0.00251
Josh Towers	706	32	30.29	0.045	0.043	0.00242
Tomo Ohka	596	27	25.58	0.045	0.043	0.00238
Runelvys Hernandez	523	16	14.79	0.031	0.028	0.00231
Horacio Ramirez	667	43	41.63	0.064	0.062	0.00206
Andy Pettitte	643	38	36.72	0.059	0.057	0.00199
Derek Lowe	700	53	51.70	0.076	0.074	0.00185
Rodrigo Lopez	702	31	29.79	0.044	0.042	0.00173
Noah Lowry	599	29	28.30	0.048	0.047	0.00117
Cory Lidle	607	30	29.53	0.049	0.049	0.00078
Mike Mussina	545	27	26.90	0.050	0.049	0.00018
Kris Benson	565	30	30.01	0.053	0.053	-0.00001
Gustavo G Chacin	652	24	24.10	0.037	0.037	-0.00016
Freddy Garcia	708	28	28.17	0.040	0.040	-0.00024
Brian Lawrence	656	33	33.40	0.050	0.051	-0.00060
Jeff Suppan	626	29	29.48	0.046	0.047	-0.00076
John Lackey	598	24	24.48	0.040	0.041	-0.00080
Chris Carpenter	667	42	42.73	0.063	0.064	-0.00109
Brian Moehler	538	28	28.60	0.052	0.053	-0.00112
Joel Pineiro	629	20	20.71	0.032	0.033	-0.00113
Paul Byrd	682	22	22.91	0.032	0.034	-0.00133
Scott E Kazmir	522	15	15.88	0.029	0.030	-0.00168
Mark Hendrickson	633	23	24.22	0.036	0.038	-0.00192
Jose Contreras	595	23	24.28	0.039	0.041	-0.00215
Brett Tomko	625	20	21.38	0.032	0.034	-0.00221
Matt Morris	633	26	27.69	0.041	0.044	-0.00267
Bruce Chen	594	23	24.79	0.039	0.042	-0.00301
Tim Wakefield	678	24	26.07	0.035	0.038	-0.00305
Chris Capuano	639	27	29.02	0.042	0.045	-0.00316
Brad A Halsey	550	21	22.76	0.038	0.041	-0.00321
Bronson Arroyo	688	22	24.45	0.032	0.036	-0.00355
Joe Mays	564	23	25.02	0.041	0.044	-0.00358
Brandon Claussen	522	20	21.92	0.038	0.042	-0.00368
Tom Glavine	720	42	44.70	0.058	0.062	-0.00375
Eric Milton	633	17	19.66	0.027	0.031	-0.00420
Roy Oswalt	744	34	37.16	0.046	0.050	-0.00424
Mike Maroth	683	19	22.11	0.028	0.032	-0.00455
Jason Marquis	664	23	26.23	0.035	0.040	-0.00486
Doug Davis	615	27	30.06	0.044	0.049	-0.00497
Carlos Zambrano	592	34	36.98	0.057	0.062	-0.00503
Tim Hudson	608	39	42.16	0.064	0.069	-0.00521
Scott Elarton	585	11	14.19	0.019	0.024	-0.00546
Victor Zambrano	532	22	24.96	0.041	0.047	-0.00556
Jeff Weaver	677	27	30.80	0.040	0.045	-0.00561
Jason Johnson	718	33	37.09	0.046	0.052	-0.00569
Jarrod Washburn	567	16	19.47	0.028	0.034	-0.00612
Jamey Wright	563	22	25.91	0.039	0.046	-0.00694
Doug Waechter	533	9	12.99	0.017	0.024	-0.00748
Randy Johnson	618	23	27.83	0.037	0.045	-0.00781
Bartolo Colon	678	17	22.31	0.025	0.033	-0.00783
Esteban Loaiza	661	32	37.66	0.048	0.057	-0.00857
Nate Robertson	624	24	29.58	0.038	0.047	-0.00894
Danny Haren	649	20	26.04	0.031	0.040	-0.00931
Joe M Blanton	624	18	24.14	0.029	0.039	-0.00984
Ryan Franklin	642	13	19.53	0.020	0.030	-0.01017
Joe Kennedy	515	14	19.33	0.027	0.038	-0.01035
Cliff Lee	621	11	18.37	0.018	0.030	-0.01187
Jeff W Francis	594	17	24.07	0.029	0.041	-0.01191
Jon Lieber	684	28	36.35	0.041	0.053	-0.01221
C.C. Sabathia	574	17	24.24	0.030	0.042	-0.01261
Brad Penny	555	25	32.70	0.045	0.059	-0.01388
Jeremy Bonderman	574	15	23.30	0.026	0.041	-0.01445
Kevin Millwood	576	18	26.42	0.031	0.046	-0.01462
David Wells	622	15	24.53	0.024	0.039	-0.01533
A.J. Burnett	577	19	28.72	0.033	0.050	-0.01684

You can see why Greg Maddux won all those gold gloves. I was expecting to see a differentiation between young and old, stocky and thin, lefty/righty, but I can't discern any of that just by looking at the data.

Posted by David Pinto at 08:10 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Wow - looks like Chan Ho Park is good at something, finally!

Posted by: david at February 6, 2006 08:33 PM

It would also be interesting to see expected pitcher outs per inning for everyone. Maddux always looks like he generates a lot of come-backers. Is it true?

Larry

Posted by: Larry Macdonald at February 7, 2006 12:07 AM

what exactly is smoothed visiting player's model? I assumed it was for park factors. But I don't see how park factors could possibly affect the pitcher; it seems to me the one position that is pretty much exactly the same at every ballpark.

Posted by: andy lin at February 7, 2006 01:23 AM

Guess the Sox weren't too concerned with Wells' fielding abilities when they signed him last year... Somehow it doesn't suprise me that he's near the bottom.

Posted by: Jason at February 7, 2006 07:13 AM

Andy,

Both models take into consideration the park. The visitor's model only looks at visiting player, so a really great or really poor home player doesn't have too be an effect on the model.

Posted by: David Pinto at February 7, 2006 07:20 AM

If you're reading this, and you're AJ Burnett... what must be going through your head right now? David Wells just might be more mobile than you...

Posted by: Mike at February 7, 2006 08:36 AM

dave, thanks for the explanation. though that's still surprising. For something like a left fielder at fenway and therefore a home player more comfortable with the green monster, tha makes more sense. Or the weird dimensions/foul areas/etc of other parks. But that there are differences for pitchers are weird.

Posted by: andy lin at February 7, 2006 06:48 PM