Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Catchers, Groundballs

February 05, 2006

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Catchers, Groundballs

As promised, here's the number of catchers with the popups removed.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Catchers, 2005, Original Model, Groundballs Only (Grounders and Bunts)
Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Dioner F Navarro	603	16	8.03	0.027	0.013	0.01321
Javier Valentin	754	13	8.51	0.017	0.011	0.00596
Vance Wilson	626	7	4.53	0.011	0.007	0.00395
Danny Ardoin	876	12	9.15	0.014	0.010	0.00325
Ivan Rodriguez	1566	17	11.96	0.011	0.008	0.00322
Johnny Estrada	1307	24	20.66	0.018	0.016	0.00256
Chris R Snyder	1435	17	13.80	0.012	0.010	0.00223
Yorvit Torrealba	768	10	8.31	0.013	0.011	0.00220
Mike Piazza	1161	17	14.84	0.015	0.013	0.00186
Gregg Zaun	1603	13	10.42	0.008	0.006	0.00161
Jason LaRue	1309	21	18.93	0.016	0.014	0.00158
Sal Fasano	648	6	5.16	0.009	0.008	0.00130
Jose Molina	635	6	5.19	0.009	0.008	0.00128
Yadier B Molina	1554	18	16.20	0.012	0.010	0.00116
Geronimo Gil	502	4	3.53	0.008	0.007	0.00093
Mike Redmond	608	2	1.61	0.003	0.003	0.00065
JD Closser	852	9	8.63	0.011	0.010	0.00044
John R Buck	1500	11	10.37	0.007	0.007	0.00042
Rod Barajas	1592	10	9.47	0.006	0.006	0.00033
Jason Phillips	1204	14	13.63	0.012	0.011	0.00030
Chris Widger	503	4	3.90	0.008	0.008	0.00020
Jorge Posada	1721	20	19.66	0.012	0.011	0.00020
A.J. Pierzynski	1545	9	8.99	0.006	0.006	0.00001
Mike Matheny	1582	14	14.28	0.009	0.009	-0.00018
Mike Lieberthal	1413	15	15.34	0.011	0.011	-0.00024
Gary Bennett	690	9	9.21	0.013	0.013	-0.00030
Jason Kendall	1753	12	12.54	0.007	0.007	-0.00031
Humberto Cota	990	13	13.34	0.013	0.013	-0.00034
Henry Blanco	556	5	5.39	0.009	0.010	-0.00071
Miguel Olivo	963	8	8.78	0.008	0.009	-0.00081
Jason Varitek	1592	7	8.44	0.004	0.005	-0.00091
Sandy Alomar Jr.	516	4	4.53	0.008	0.009	-0.00103
Joe Mauer	1431	7	9.28	0.005	0.006	-0.00160
Chad Moeller	655	6	7.07	0.009	0.011	-0.00163
Brad Ausmus	1537	18	20.51	0.012	0.013	-0.00163
Ryan M Doumit	614	7	8.01	0.011	0.013	-0.00164
Victor Martinez	1757	10	13.02	0.006	0.007	-0.00172
Damian Miller	1228	12	14.17	0.010	0.012	-0.00177
Brian M McCann	693	12	13.31	0.017	0.019	-0.00189
Brian Schneider	1256	10	13.03	0.008	0.010	-0.00241
Bengie Molina	1154	4	7.20	0.003	0.006	-0.00277
Einar Diaz	508	4	5.50	0.008	0.011	-0.00296
Toby Hall	1417	6	10.50	0.004	0.007	-0.00317
Todd Pratt	595	6	7.93	0.010	0.013	-0.00324
Michael Barrett	1489	13	17.82	0.009	0.012	-0.00324
Paul Lo Duca	1537	12	17.56	0.008	0.011	-0.00362
Ramon R Castro	830	5	8.80	0.006	0.011	-0.00458
Ramon Hernandez	1127	7	12.32	0.006	0.011	-0.00472
Javy Lopez	903	0	5.67	0.000	0.006	-0.00628

Probabilistic Model of Range, Catchers, 2005, Smoothed Visiting Player Model, Ground Balls Only (Grounders + Bunts)
Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Dioner F Navarro	603	16	8.37	0.027	0.014	0.01265
Javier Valentin	754	13	7.15	0.017	0.009	0.00775
Danny Ardoin	876	12	7.69	0.014	0.009	0.00492
Jason LaRue	1309	21	15.95	0.016	0.012	0.00386
Vance Wilson	626	7	4.74	0.011	0.008	0.00361
Ivan Rodriguez	1566	17	11.59	0.011	0.007	0.00345
Johnny Estrada	1307	24	19.76	0.018	0.015	0.00324
Yorvit Torrealba	768	10	7.56	0.013	0.010	0.00318
Chris R Snyder	1435	17	12.80	0.012	0.009	0.00293
Yadier B Molina	1554	18	14.51	0.012	0.009	0.00225
Chris Widger	503	4	3.14	0.008	0.006	0.00171
Mike Lieberthal	1413	15	12.84	0.011	0.009	0.00153
Gregg Zaun	1603	13	10.80	0.008	0.007	0.00138
Mike Redmond	608	2	1.21	0.003	0.002	0.00131
JD Closser	852	9	7.89	0.011	0.009	0.00130
Jose Molina	635	6	5.19	0.009	0.008	0.00127
Sal Fasano	648	6	5.19	0.009	0.008	0.00125
Jason Phillips	1204	14	12.86	0.012	0.011	0.00095
Geronimo Gil	502	4	3.56	0.008	0.007	0.00088
Gary Bennett	690	9	8.73	0.013	0.013	0.00039
Jorge Posada	1721	20	19.51	0.012	0.011	0.00028
Henry Blanco	556	5	4.87	0.009	0.009	0.00024
Mike Piazza	1161	17	16.73	0.015	0.014	0.00023
Jason Kendall	1753	12	12.56	0.007	0.007	-0.00032
A.J. Pierzynski	1545	9	9.51	0.006	0.006	-0.00033
John R Buck	1500	11	11.59	0.007	0.008	-0.00040
Sandy Alomar Jr.	516	4	4.21	0.008	0.008	-0.00040
Brian M McCann	693	12	12.44	0.017	0.018	-0.00063
Rod Barajas	1592	10	11.22	0.006	0.007	-0.00077
Ryan M Doumit	614	7	7.49	0.011	0.012	-0.00080
Damian Miller	1228	12	13.03	0.010	0.011	-0.00084
Todd Pratt	595	6	6.54	0.010	0.011	-0.00090
Joe Mauer	1431	7	8.37	0.005	0.006	-0.00095
Mike Matheny	1582	14	15.64	0.009	0.010	-0.00104
Victor Martinez	1757	10	12.01	0.006	0.007	-0.00114
Humberto Cota	990	13	14.30	0.013	0.014	-0.00131
Miguel Olivo	963	8	9.27	0.008	0.010	-0.00132
Jason Varitek	1592	7	9.22	0.004	0.006	-0.00140
Brad Ausmus	1537	18	20.37	0.012	0.013	-0.00154
Bengie Molina	1154	4	6.67	0.003	0.006	-0.00231
Chad Moeller	655	6	7.54	0.009	0.012	-0.00236
Einar Diaz	508	4	5.26	0.008	0.010	-0.00248
Michael Barrett	1489	13	17.22	0.009	0.012	-0.00283
Brian Schneider	1256	10	13.91	0.008	0.011	-0.00312
Toby Hall	1417	6	10.66	0.004	0.008	-0.00329
Paul Lo Duca	1537	12	17.12	0.008	0.011	-0.00333
Ramon Hernandez	1127	7	10.86	0.006	0.010	-0.00343
Ramon R Castro	830	5	8.32	0.006	0.010	-0.00400
Javy Lopez	903	0	5.84	0.000	0.006	-0.00647

When I saw the result for Javy Lopez, I needed to go back and check the data. Sure enough, Lopez did not make an out on a bunt or ground ball in front of the plate in 2005. With the model estimating 5 to 6 outs, he didn't have many opportunities. Maybe opponents didn't bunt much against the Orioles?

Dodger youngster Dioner Navarro continues to look good, but Mike Matheny takes a big hit. Are popups tougher to catch in San Francisco? I'd imagine that would be true if they were still playing at Candlestick Point.

Posted by David Pinto at 03:16 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)

Comments

The winds at PacBell (the original name, not "Put New Corp. Initials Here" Park) are nearly as tough as at Candlestick. Usually, the park "funnels" balls back into play down both foul lines as the upper decks on each side catch the winds.

There are no easy plays on popups in foul territory at PacBell, basically.

Posted by: Allen at February 5, 2006 05:42 PM

that young dodger is very inpressive, hopefully dodgers avoid bengie molina. and let the mets or jays over pay him

Posted by: Colin at February 6, 2006 12:36 AM

Speaking of Molina, has there ever been a free agent that overestimated the market like this (besides Jeff Weaver this year, also) - I mean, it's a month before the start of training camp and Molina, who had a career offensive year in 2005, and Weaver, who had career highs in wins and Ks - are still basically searching for one-year deals. Odd, to say the least. It shows you how far Molina's defense has slipped (and how poorly teams regard Weaver's actual ability)

Posted by: david at February 6, 2006 01:20 AM