February 05, 2006
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Catchers
Range is not a big part of being a catcher, but they still field balls in play, and it's always nice to know who can handle the nubber in front of home plate.
Probabilistic Model of Range, Catchers, 2005, Original Model
| Player | InPlay | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Difference |
| Dioner F Navarro | 1307 | 28 | 20.87 | 0.021 | 0.016 | 0.00546 |
| Vance Wilson | 1324 | 18 | 10.87 | 0.014 | 0.008 | 0.00539 |
| Kelly Stinnett | 1038 | 18 | 13.11 | 0.017 | 0.013 | 0.00472 |
| Mike Matheny | 3552 | 52 | 38.35 | 0.015 | 0.011 | 0.00384 |
| Geronimo Gil | 1038 | 14 | 11.13 | 0.013 | 0.011 | 0.00277 |
| Ryan M Doumit | 1327 | 20 | 16.35 | 0.015 | 0.012 | 0.00275 |
| Yorvit Torrealba | 1637 | 28 | 23.66 | 0.017 | 0.014 | 0.00265 |
| Danny Ardoin | 1851 | 25 | 20.87 | 0.014 | 0.011 | 0.00223 |
| Jason Varitek | 3536 | 48 | 40.28 | 0.014 | 0.011 | 0.00218 |
| Jason Kendall | 3802 | 41 | 36.12 | 0.011 | 0.009 | 0.00128 |
| Gary Bennett | 1631 | 26 | 23.93 | 0.016 | 0.015 | 0.00127 |
| Humberto Cota | 2127 | 27 | 24.74 | 0.013 | 0.012 | 0.00106 |
| JD Closser | 1822 | 23 | 21.21 | 0.013 | 0.012 | 0.00098 |
| Gregg Zaun | 3357 | 33 | 29.72 | 0.010 | 0.009 | 0.00098 |
| Ivan Rodriguez | 3203 | 37 | 33.93 | 0.012 | 0.011 | 0.00096 |
| Jason LaRue | 2978 | 45 | 42.37 | 0.015 | 0.014 | 0.00088 |
| Brad Ausmus | 3095 | 43 | 40.33 | 0.014 | 0.013 | 0.00086 |
| Joe Mauer | 3074 | 33 | 30.66 | 0.011 | 0.010 | 0.00076 |
| Chris Widger | 1059 | 9 | 8.42 | 0.008 | 0.008 | 0.00055 |
| Johnny Estrada | 2607 | 34 | 32.64 | 0.013 | 0.013 | 0.00052 |
| Mike Piazza | 2442 | 31 | 29.85 | 0.013 | 0.012 | 0.00047 |
| Chris R Snyder | 2848 | 33 | 32.12 | 0.012 | 0.011 | 0.00031 |
| Yadier B Molina | 2872 | 31 | 30.12 | 0.011 | 0.010 | 0.00030 |
| Jorge Posada | 3446 | 47 | 46.84 | 0.014 | 0.014 | 0.00005 |
| Ramon Hernandez | 2459 | 28 | 27.87 | 0.011 | 0.011 | 0.00005 |
| A.J. Pierzynski | 3360 | 35 | 34.97 | 0.010 | 0.010 | 0.00001 |
| Rod Barajas | 3325 | 34 | 34.15 | 0.010 | 0.010 | -0.00004 |
| John R Buck | 3231 | 35 | 35.24 | 0.011 | 0.011 | -0.00007 |
| Sal Fasano | 1324 | 11 | 11.22 | 0.008 | 0.008 | -0.00016 |
| Jose Molina | 1413 | 15 | 15.26 | 0.011 | 0.011 | -0.00018 |
| Henry Blanco | 1141 | 14 | 14.46 | 0.012 | 0.013 | -0.00040 |
| Sandy Alomar Jr. | 1041 | 11 | 11.49 | 0.011 | 0.011 | -0.00047 |
| Javier Valentin | 1644 | 18 | 18.94 | 0.011 | 0.012 | -0.00057 |
| Matt A Treanor | 1109 | 14 | 14.94 | 0.013 | 0.013 | -0.00085 |
| Mike Lieberthal | 2959 | 30 | 32.58 | 0.010 | 0.011 | -0.00087 |
| Michael Barrett | 2976 | 29 | 31.88 | 0.010 | 0.011 | -0.00097 |
| Miguel Olivo | 2132 | 19 | 21.30 | 0.009 | 0.010 | -0.00108 |
| Damian Miller | 2778 | 35 | 38.00 | 0.013 | 0.014 | -0.00108 |
| Jason Phillips | 2401 | 25 | 27.71 | 0.010 | 0.012 | -0.00113 |
| Victor Martinez | 3728 | 30 | 34.37 | 0.008 | 0.009 | -0.00117 |
| John Flaherty | 1016 | 14 | 15.23 | 0.014 | 0.015 | -0.00121 |
| Brian Schneider | 2883 | 29 | 33.06 | 0.010 | 0.011 | -0.00141 |
| Chad Moeller | 1474 | 16 | 18.09 | 0.011 | 0.012 | -0.00142 |
| Toby Hall | 3359 | 30 | 35.02 | 0.009 | 0.010 | -0.00149 |
| Todd Pratt | 1252 | 12 | 13.97 | 0.010 | 0.011 | -0.00158 |
| Brian M McCann | 1410 | 18 | 20.40 | 0.013 | 0.014 | -0.00171 |
| Mike Redmond | 1219 | 5 | 7.23 | 0.004 | 0.006 | -0.00183 |
| Bengie Molina | 2635 | 23 | 28.49 | 0.009 | 0.011 | -0.00208 |
| Paul Lo Duca | 3110 | 31 | 37.68 | 0.010 | 0.012 | -0.00215 |
| Ramon R Castro | 1825 | 16 | 21.06 | 0.009 | 0.012 | -0.00277 |
| Javy Lopez | 1916 | 13 | 20.55 | 0.007 | 0.011 | -0.00394 |
| Pat Borders | 1016 | 8 | 13.13 | 0.008 | 0.013 | -0.00505 |
Probabilistic Model of Range, Catchers, 2005, Smoothed Visiting Player Model
| Player | InPlay | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Difference |
| Kelly Stinnett | 1038 | 18 | 11.36 | 0.017 | 0.011 | 0.00640 |
| Dioner F Navarro | 1307 | 28 | 20.67 | 0.021 | 0.016 | 0.00561 |
| Vance Wilson | 1324 | 18 | 11.08 | 0.014 | 0.008 | 0.00522 |
| Geronimo Gil | 1038 | 14 | 10.35 | 0.013 | 0.010 | 0.00351 |
| Mike Matheny | 3552 | 52 | 39.57 | 0.015 | 0.011 | 0.00350 |
| Ryan M Doumit | 1327 | 20 | 15.63 | 0.015 | 0.012 | 0.00329 |
| Yorvit Torrealba | 1637 | 28 | 22.61 | 0.017 | 0.014 | 0.00329 |
| Danny Ardoin | 1851 | 25 | 20.36 | 0.014 | 0.011 | 0.00251 |
| Gary Bennett | 1631 | 26 | 22.06 | 0.016 | 0.014 | 0.00241 |
| Chris Widger | 1059 | 9 | 6.52 | 0.008 | 0.006 | 0.00234 |
| Jason Varitek | 3536 | 48 | 40.91 | 0.014 | 0.012 | 0.00200 |
| Jason LaRue | 2978 | 45 | 39.39 | 0.015 | 0.013 | 0.00188 |
| Jason Kendall | 3802 | 41 | 35.43 | 0.011 | 0.009 | 0.00147 |
| Brad Ausmus | 3095 | 43 | 38.81 | 0.014 | 0.013 | 0.00135 |
| Gregg Zaun | 3357 | 33 | 29.22 | 0.010 | 0.009 | 0.00113 |
| Ivan Rodriguez | 3203 | 37 | 33.75 | 0.012 | 0.011 | 0.00102 |
| Johnny Estrada | 2607 | 34 | 31.74 | 0.013 | 0.012 | 0.00087 |
| Ramon Hernandez | 2459 | 28 | 25.92 | 0.011 | 0.011 | 0.00085 |
| JD Closser | 1822 | 23 | 21.83 | 0.013 | 0.012 | 0.00064 |
| Jorge Posada | 3446 | 47 | 44.83 | 0.014 | 0.013 | 0.00063 |
| Humberto Cota | 2127 | 27 | 25.77 | 0.013 | 0.012 | 0.00058 |
| Chris R Snyder | 2848 | 33 | 31.50 | 0.012 | 0.011 | 0.00053 |
| Joe Mauer | 3074 | 33 | 31.53 | 0.011 | 0.010 | 0.00048 |
| Sandy Alomar Jr. | 1041 | 11 | 10.50 | 0.011 | 0.010 | 0.00048 |
| Henry Blanco | 1141 | 14 | 13.67 | 0.012 | 0.012 | 0.00029 |
| Matt A Treanor | 1109 | 14 | 13.80 | 0.013 | 0.012 | 0.00018 |
| Mike Lieberthal | 2959 | 30 | 29.59 | 0.010 | 0.010 | 0.00014 |
| Sal Fasano | 1324 | 11 | 10.92 | 0.008 | 0.008 | 0.00006 |
| Javier Valentin | 1644 | 18 | 17.94 | 0.011 | 0.011 | 0.00003 |
| Yadier B Molina | 2872 | 31 | 31.00 | 0.011 | 0.011 | 0.00000 |
| Mike Piazza | 2442 | 31 | 31.01 | 0.013 | 0.013 | -0.00000 |
| Jose Molina | 1413 | 15 | 15.12 | 0.011 | 0.011 | -0.00009 |
| Todd Pratt | 1252 | 12 | 12.14 | 0.010 | 0.010 | -0.00011 |
| Victor Martinez | 3728 | 30 | 31.08 | 0.008 | 0.008 | -0.00029 |
| A.J. Pierzynski | 3360 | 35 | 36.01 | 0.010 | 0.011 | -0.00030 |
| John Flaherty | 1016 | 14 | 14.37 | 0.014 | 0.014 | -0.00037 |
| John R Buck | 3231 | 35 | 37.01 | 0.011 | 0.011 | -0.00062 |
| Jason Phillips | 2401 | 25 | 26.58 | 0.010 | 0.011 | -0.00066 |
| Rod Barajas | 3325 | 34 | 36.57 | 0.010 | 0.011 | -0.00077 |
| Michael Barrett | 2976 | 29 | 31.63 | 0.010 | 0.011 | -0.00088 |
| Damian Miller | 2778 | 35 | 37.68 | 0.013 | 0.014 | -0.00097 |
| Brian Schneider | 2883 | 29 | 32.30 | 0.010 | 0.011 | -0.00115 |
| Toby Hall | 3359 | 30 | 34.78 | 0.009 | 0.010 | -0.00142 |
| Bengie Molina | 2635 | 23 | 26.81 | 0.009 | 0.010 | -0.00145 |
| Mike Redmond | 1219 | 5 | 6.89 | 0.004 | 0.006 | -0.00155 |
| Miguel Olivo | 2132 | 19 | 22.53 | 0.009 | 0.011 | -0.00165 |
| Paul Lo Duca | 3110 | 31 | 36.72 | 0.010 | 0.012 | -0.00184 |
| Chad Moeller | 1474 | 16 | 18.98 | 0.011 | 0.013 | -0.00202 |
| Brian M McCann | 1410 | 18 | 21.56 | 0.013 | 0.015 | -0.00252 |
| Ramon R Castro | 1825 | 16 | 20.91 | 0.009 | 0.011 | -0.00269 |
| Javy Lopez | 1916 | 13 | 21.27 | 0.007 | 0.011 | -0.00431 |
| Pat Borders | 1016 | 8 | 14.20 | 0.008 | 0.014 | -0.00610 |
You get a feeling why the Orioles want to move Javy Lopez to first base. It's also clear that Mike Matheny is properly lauded for his defense. It's also possible Paul DePodseta picked up a cat behind the plate in Dioner Navarro.
I'll run these number shortly on just ground balls and bunts.