Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
February 05, 2006
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Catchers

Range is not a big part of being a catcher, but they still field balls in play, and it's always nice to know who can handle the nubber in front of home plate.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Catchers, 2005, Original Model
PlayerInPlayActual OutsPredicted OutsDERPredicted DERDifference
Dioner F Navarro130728 20.87 0.021 0.016 0.00546
Vance Wilson132418 10.87 0.014 0.008 0.00539
Kelly Stinnett103818 13.11 0.017 0.013 0.00472
Mike Matheny355252 38.35 0.015 0.011 0.00384
Geronimo Gil103814 11.13 0.013 0.011 0.00277
Ryan M Doumit132720 16.35 0.015 0.012 0.00275
Yorvit Torrealba163728 23.66 0.017 0.014 0.00265
Danny Ardoin185125 20.87 0.014 0.011 0.00223
Jason Varitek353648 40.28 0.014 0.011 0.00218
Jason Kendall380241 36.12 0.011 0.009 0.00128
Gary Bennett163126 23.93 0.016 0.015 0.00127
Humberto Cota212727 24.74 0.013 0.012 0.00106
JD Closser182223 21.21 0.013 0.012 0.00098
Gregg Zaun335733 29.72 0.010 0.009 0.00098
Ivan Rodriguez320337 33.93 0.012 0.011 0.00096
Jason LaRue297845 42.37 0.015 0.014 0.00088
Brad Ausmus309543 40.33 0.014 0.013 0.00086
Joe Mauer307433 30.66 0.011 0.010 0.00076
Chris Widger10599 8.42 0.008 0.008 0.00055
Johnny Estrada260734 32.64 0.013 0.013 0.00052
Mike Piazza244231 29.85 0.013 0.012 0.00047
Chris R Snyder284833 32.12 0.012 0.011 0.00031
Yadier B Molina287231 30.12 0.011 0.010 0.00030
Jorge Posada344647 46.84 0.014 0.014 0.00005
Ramon Hernandez245928 27.87 0.011 0.011 0.00005
A.J. Pierzynski336035 34.97 0.010 0.010 0.00001
Rod Barajas332534 34.15 0.010 0.010 -0.00004
John R Buck323135 35.24 0.011 0.011 -0.00007
Sal Fasano132411 11.22 0.008 0.008 -0.00016
Jose Molina141315 15.26 0.011 0.011 -0.00018
Henry Blanco114114 14.46 0.012 0.013 -0.00040
Sandy Alomar Jr.104111 11.49 0.011 0.011 -0.00047
Javier Valentin164418 18.94 0.011 0.012 -0.00057
Matt A Treanor110914 14.94 0.013 0.013 -0.00085
Mike Lieberthal295930 32.58 0.010 0.011 -0.00087
Michael Barrett297629 31.88 0.010 0.011 -0.00097
Miguel Olivo213219 21.30 0.009 0.010 -0.00108
Damian Miller277835 38.00 0.013 0.014 -0.00108
Jason Phillips240125 27.71 0.010 0.012 -0.00113
Victor Martinez372830 34.37 0.008 0.009 -0.00117
John Flaherty101614 15.23 0.014 0.015 -0.00121
Brian Schneider288329 33.06 0.010 0.011 -0.00141
Chad Moeller147416 18.09 0.011 0.012 -0.00142
Toby Hall335930 35.02 0.009 0.010 -0.00149
Todd Pratt125212 13.97 0.010 0.011 -0.00158
Brian M McCann141018 20.40 0.013 0.014 -0.00171
Mike Redmond12195 7.23 0.004 0.006 -0.00183
Bengie Molina263523 28.49 0.009 0.011 -0.00208
Paul Lo Duca311031 37.68 0.010 0.012 -0.00215
Ramon R Castro182516 21.06 0.009 0.012 -0.00277
Javy Lopez191613 20.55 0.007 0.011 -0.00394
Pat Borders10168 13.13 0.008 0.013 -0.00505

Probabilistic Model of Range, Catchers, 2005, Smoothed Visiting Player Model
PlayerInPlayActual OutsPredicted OutsDERPredicted DERDifference
Kelly Stinnett103818 11.36 0.017 0.011 0.00640
Dioner F Navarro130728 20.67 0.021 0.016 0.00561
Vance Wilson132418 11.08 0.014 0.008 0.00522
Geronimo Gil103814 10.35 0.013 0.010 0.00351
Mike Matheny355252 39.57 0.015 0.011 0.00350
Ryan M Doumit132720 15.63 0.015 0.012 0.00329
Yorvit Torrealba163728 22.61 0.017 0.014 0.00329
Danny Ardoin185125 20.36 0.014 0.011 0.00251
Gary Bennett163126 22.06 0.016 0.014 0.00241
Chris Widger10599 6.52 0.008 0.006 0.00234
Jason Varitek353648 40.91 0.014 0.012 0.00200
Jason LaRue297845 39.39 0.015 0.013 0.00188
Jason Kendall380241 35.43 0.011 0.009 0.00147
Brad Ausmus309543 38.81 0.014 0.013 0.00135
Gregg Zaun335733 29.22 0.010 0.009 0.00113
Ivan Rodriguez320337 33.75 0.012 0.011 0.00102
Johnny Estrada260734 31.74 0.013 0.012 0.00087
Ramon Hernandez245928 25.92 0.011 0.011 0.00085
JD Closser182223 21.83 0.013 0.012 0.00064
Jorge Posada344647 44.83 0.014 0.013 0.00063
Humberto Cota212727 25.77 0.013 0.012 0.00058
Chris R Snyder284833 31.50 0.012 0.011 0.00053
Joe Mauer307433 31.53 0.011 0.010 0.00048
Sandy Alomar Jr.104111 10.50 0.011 0.010 0.00048
Henry Blanco114114 13.67 0.012 0.012 0.00029
Matt A Treanor110914 13.80 0.013 0.012 0.00018
Mike Lieberthal295930 29.59 0.010 0.010 0.00014
Sal Fasano132411 10.92 0.008 0.008 0.00006
Javier Valentin164418 17.94 0.011 0.011 0.00003
Yadier B Molina287231 31.00 0.011 0.011 0.00000
Mike Piazza244231 31.01 0.013 0.013 -0.00000
Jose Molina141315 15.12 0.011 0.011 -0.00009
Todd Pratt125212 12.14 0.010 0.010 -0.00011
Victor Martinez372830 31.08 0.008 0.008 -0.00029
A.J. Pierzynski336035 36.01 0.010 0.011 -0.00030
John Flaherty101614 14.37 0.014 0.014 -0.00037
John R Buck323135 37.01 0.011 0.011 -0.00062
Jason Phillips240125 26.58 0.010 0.011 -0.00066
Rod Barajas332534 36.57 0.010 0.011 -0.00077
Michael Barrett297629 31.63 0.010 0.011 -0.00088
Damian Miller277835 37.68 0.013 0.014 -0.00097
Brian Schneider288329 32.30 0.010 0.011 -0.00115
Toby Hall335930 34.78 0.009 0.010 -0.00142
Bengie Molina263523 26.81 0.009 0.010 -0.00145
Mike Redmond12195 6.89 0.004 0.006 -0.00155
Miguel Olivo213219 22.53 0.009 0.011 -0.00165
Paul Lo Duca311031 36.72 0.010 0.012 -0.00184
Chad Moeller147416 18.98 0.011 0.013 -0.00202
Brian M McCann141018 21.56 0.013 0.015 -0.00252
Ramon R Castro182516 20.91 0.009 0.011 -0.00269
Javy Lopez191613 21.27 0.007 0.011 -0.00431
Pat Borders10168 14.20 0.008 0.014 -0.00610

You get a feeling why the Orioles want to move Javy Lopez to first base. It's also clear that Mike Matheny is properly lauded for his defense. It's also possible Paul DePodseta picked up a cat behind the plate in Dioner Navarro.

I'll run these number shortly on just ground balls and bunts.


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