February 02, 2006
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, First Basemen and Grounders
Here's the data for first basemen, looking only at ground balls (including bunts on the ground). (Data on all balls in play is here.)
Probabilistic Model of Range, First Basemen, 2005, Original Model, Groundballs Only (Grounders and Bunts)
Player | InPlay | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Difference |
Tino Martinez | 1200 | 126 | 99.28 | 0.105 | 0.083 | 0.02227 |
Doug Mientkiewicz | 969 | 102 | 85.57 | 0.105 | 0.088 | 0.01696 |
John Olerud | 581 | 72 | 62.22 | 0.124 | 0.107 | 0.01683 |
Lance Niekro | 752 | 85 | 72.77 | 0.113 | 0.097 | 0.01627 |
Chad A Tracy | 1013 | 105 | 88.90 | 0.104 | 0.088 | 0.01589 |
Mark Teixeira | 2131 | 250 | 218.92 | 0.117 | 0.103 | 0.01458 |
Ben Broussard | 1502 | 144 | 124.02 | 0.096 | 0.083 | 0.01330 |
Darin Erstad | 1694 | 202 | 182.56 | 0.119 | 0.108 | 0.01147 |
Daryle Ward | 1307 | 122 | 108.35 | 0.093 | 0.083 | 0.01044 |
Hee Seop Choi | 1054 | 130 | 119.79 | 0.123 | 0.114 | 0.00969 |
Albert Pujols | 2226 | 243 | 223.51 | 0.109 | 0.100 | 0.00875 |
Lyle Overbay | 1658 | 175 | 161.04 | 0.106 | 0.097 | 0.00842 |
Ryan J Howard | 964 | 106 | 97.91 | 0.110 | 0.102 | 0.00839 |
Derrek Lee | 1969 | 203 | 186.70 | 0.103 | 0.095 | 0.00828 |
Shea Hillenbrand | 909 | 97 | 90.46 | 0.107 | 0.100 | 0.00719 |
Paul Konerko | 1799 | 181 | 169.18 | 0.101 | 0.094 | 0.00657 |
Mike Lamb | 624 | 64 | 60.17 | 0.103 | 0.096 | 0.00613 |
Justin Morneau | 1703 | 169 | 158.65 | 0.099 | 0.093 | 0.00608 |
Phil Nevin | 872 | 104 | 99.95 | 0.119 | 0.115 | 0.00465 |
Kevin Millar | 1177 | 155 | 149.68 | 0.132 | 0.127 | 0.00452 |
Todd Helton | 1870 | 218 | 210.39 | 0.117 | 0.113 | 0.00407 |
Eric Hinske | 1270 | 147 | 142.33 | 0.116 | 0.112 | 0.00368 |
J.T. Snow | 1183 | 130 | 126.05 | 0.110 | 0.107 | 0.00334 |
Nick Johnson | 1498 | 195 | 190.35 | 0.130 | 0.127 | 0.00311 |
Travis Lee | 1262 | 136 | 134.69 | 0.108 | 0.107 | 0.00104 |
Richie Sexson | 1835 | 197 | 195.31 | 0.107 | 0.106 | 0.00092 |
Matt Stairs | 796 | 79 | 78.88 | 0.099 | 0.099 | 0.00015 |
Tony Clark | 960 | 82 | 82.06 | 0.085 | 0.085 | -0.00006 |
Dan R Johnson | 1211 | 119 | 119.33 | 0.098 | 0.099 | -0.00028 |
Scott Hatteberg | 615 | 71 | 71.20 | 0.115 | 0.116 | -0.00032 |
Jim Thome | 612 | 58 | 58.40 | 0.095 | 0.095 | -0.00066 |
Brad Eldred | 606 | 40 | 40.51 | 0.066 | 0.067 | -0.00084 |
Chris B Shelton | 1116 | 109 | 110.64 | 0.098 | 0.099 | -0.00147 |
Sean Casey | 1651 | 173 | 176.48 | 0.105 | 0.107 | -0.00211 |
Julio Franco | 678 | 67 | 68.73 | 0.099 | 0.101 | -0.00255 |
Mike Sweeney | 667 | 81 | 82.80 | 0.121 | 0.124 | -0.00269 |
Carlos Pena | 660 | 64 | 67.44 | 0.097 | 0.102 | -0.00522 |
Lance Berkman | 1052 | 111 | 116.62 | 0.106 | 0.111 | -0.00534 |
Adam LaRoche | 1576 | 165 | 174.64 | 0.105 | 0.111 | -0.00612 |
Rafael Palmeiro | 1119 | 99 | 107.12 | 0.088 | 0.096 | -0.00726 |
Carlos Delgado | 1743 | 179 | 193.49 | 0.103 | 0.111 | -0.00831 |
Jason Giambi | 864 | 63 | 70.96 | 0.073 | 0.082 | -0.00922 |
Olmedo Saenz | 696 | 59 | 67.77 | 0.085 | 0.097 | -0.01260 |
Probabilistic Model of Range, First Baseman, 2005, Smoothed Visiting Player Model, Ground Balls Only (Grounders + Bunts)
Player | InPlay | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Difference |
Tino Martinez | 1200 | 126 | 100.13 | 0.105 | 0.083 | 0.02156 |
Doug Mientkiewicz | 969 | 102 | 82.53 | 0.105 | 0.085 | 0.02009 |
John Olerud | 581 | 72 | 60.58 | 0.124 | 0.104 | 0.01965 |
Mark Teixeira | 2131 | 250 | 210.20 | 0.117 | 0.099 | 0.01868 |
Chad A Tracy | 1013 | 105 | 87.43 | 0.104 | 0.086 | 0.01735 |
Lance Niekro | 752 | 85 | 72.75 | 0.113 | 0.097 | 0.01629 |
Darin Erstad | 1694 | 202 | 178.07 | 0.119 | 0.105 | 0.01412 |
Ben Broussard | 1502 | 144 | 123.30 | 0.096 | 0.082 | 0.01378 |
Lyle Overbay | 1658 | 175 | 158.44 | 0.106 | 0.096 | 0.00999 |
Hee Seop Choi | 1054 | 130 | 119.67 | 0.123 | 0.114 | 0.00980 |
Albert Pujols | 2226 | 243 | 222.85 | 0.109 | 0.100 | 0.00905 |
Daryle Ward | 1307 | 122 | 110.67 | 0.093 | 0.085 | 0.00867 |
Derrek Lee | 1969 | 203 | 186.17 | 0.103 | 0.095 | 0.00855 |
Ryan J Howard | 964 | 106 | 98.58 | 0.110 | 0.102 | 0.00769 |
Mike Lamb | 624 | 64 | 59.61 | 0.103 | 0.096 | 0.00703 |
Paul Konerko | 1799 | 181 | 169.28 | 0.101 | 0.094 | 0.00652 |
Kevin Millar | 1177 | 155 | 147.56 | 0.132 | 0.125 | 0.00632 |
Todd Helton | 1870 | 218 | 207.21 | 0.117 | 0.111 | 0.00577 |
Justin Morneau | 1703 | 169 | 159.45 | 0.099 | 0.094 | 0.00561 |
Phil Nevin | 872 | 104 | 99.62 | 0.119 | 0.114 | 0.00502 |
Shea Hillenbrand | 909 | 97 | 92.46 | 0.107 | 0.102 | 0.00500 |
J.T. Snow | 1183 | 130 | 124.14 | 0.110 | 0.105 | 0.00496 |
Nick Johnson | 1498 | 195 | 189.23 | 0.130 | 0.126 | 0.00385 |
Eric Hinske | 1270 | 147 | 142.13 | 0.116 | 0.112 | 0.00384 |
Travis Lee | 1262 | 136 | 132.07 | 0.108 | 0.105 | 0.00311 |
Jim Thome | 612 | 58 | 57.10 | 0.095 | 0.093 | 0.00146 |
Tony Clark | 960 | 82 | 80.63 | 0.085 | 0.084 | 0.00143 |
Matt Stairs | 796 | 79 | 78.83 | 0.099 | 0.099 | 0.00022 |
Scott Hatteberg | 615 | 71 | 70.94 | 0.115 | 0.115 | 0.00010 |
Brad Eldred | 606 | 40 | 40.07 | 0.066 | 0.066 | -0.00011 |
Richie Sexson | 1835 | 197 | 198.28 | 0.107 | 0.108 | -0.00070 |
Dan R Johnson | 1211 | 119 | 120.02 | 0.098 | 0.099 | -0.00084 |
Mike Sweeney | 667 | 81 | 82.36 | 0.121 | 0.123 | -0.00204 |
Sean Casey | 1651 | 173 | 176.58 | 0.105 | 0.107 | -0.00217 |
Julio Franco | 678 | 67 | 68.92 | 0.099 | 0.102 | -0.00283 |
Chris B Shelton | 1116 | 109 | 112.73 | 0.098 | 0.101 | -0.00335 |
Lance Berkman | 1052 | 111 | 114.66 | 0.106 | 0.109 | -0.00348 |
Carlos Pena | 660 | 64 | 68.48 | 0.097 | 0.104 | -0.00678 |
Rafael Palmeiro | 1119 | 99 | 107.23 | 0.088 | 0.096 | -0.00736 |
Adam LaRoche | 1576 | 165 | 177.37 | 0.105 | 0.113 | -0.00785 |
Carlos Delgado | 1743 | 179 | 192.77 | 0.103 | 0.111 | -0.00790 |
Jason Giambi | 864 | 63 | 70.89 | 0.073 | 0.082 | -0.00914 |
Olmedo Saenz | 696 | 59 | 67.07 | 0.085 | 0.096 | -0.01160 |
That's a big jump for Doug Mientkiewicz.
Look at Olerud, that's pretty impressive for a guy his age. Presumably, he was just as good (or better) in his younger days. Not a lot of people are going to argue for it, but he might be one of the better players who never gets any serious consideration for the HOF.
After looking at all of these charts I'm amazed at how well Bill Mueller rated at 3B and at how not-awful Kevin Millar rated at 1B. I was assuming that Lowell would be a big defensive improvement over Mueller, but that appears not to be the case.
Probably the biggest surprise for me was seeing how great utility man Pedro Feliz is at 3B. Remember the old joke about Tony Philips being able to play four positions, but none of the well? Feliz is the opposite.
p.s. Where do you explain the Probabilistic Model Defensive charts? What is the x-axis?