Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
February 02, 2006
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, First Basemen and Grounders

Here's the data for first basemen, looking only at ground balls (including bunts on the ground). (Data on all balls in play is here.)

Probabilistic Model of Range, First Basemen, 2005, Original Model, Groundballs Only (Grounders and Bunts)
PlayerInPlayActual OutsPredicted OutsDERPredicted DERDifference
Tino Martinez1200126 99.28 0.105 0.083 0.02227
Doug Mientkiewicz969102 85.57 0.105 0.088 0.01696
John Olerud58172 62.22 0.124 0.107 0.01683
Lance Niekro75285 72.77 0.113 0.097 0.01627
Chad A Tracy1013105 88.90 0.104 0.088 0.01589
Mark Teixeira2131250 218.92 0.117 0.103 0.01458
Ben Broussard1502144 124.02 0.096 0.083 0.01330
Darin Erstad1694202 182.56 0.119 0.108 0.01147
Daryle Ward1307122 108.35 0.093 0.083 0.01044
Hee Seop Choi1054130 119.79 0.123 0.114 0.00969
Albert Pujols2226243 223.51 0.109 0.100 0.00875
Lyle Overbay1658175 161.04 0.106 0.097 0.00842
Ryan J Howard964106 97.91 0.110 0.102 0.00839
Derrek Lee1969203 186.70 0.103 0.095 0.00828
Shea Hillenbrand90997 90.46 0.107 0.100 0.00719
Paul Konerko1799181 169.18 0.101 0.094 0.00657
Mike Lamb62464 60.17 0.103 0.096 0.00613
Justin Morneau1703169 158.65 0.099 0.093 0.00608
Phil Nevin872104 99.95 0.119 0.115 0.00465
Kevin Millar1177155 149.68 0.132 0.127 0.00452
Todd Helton1870218 210.39 0.117 0.113 0.00407
Eric Hinske1270147 142.33 0.116 0.112 0.00368
J.T. Snow1183130 126.05 0.110 0.107 0.00334
Nick Johnson1498195 190.35 0.130 0.127 0.00311
Travis Lee1262136 134.69 0.108 0.107 0.00104
Richie Sexson1835197 195.31 0.107 0.106 0.00092
Matt Stairs79679 78.88 0.099 0.099 0.00015
Tony Clark96082 82.06 0.085 0.085 -0.00006
Dan R Johnson1211119 119.33 0.098 0.099 -0.00028
Scott Hatteberg61571 71.20 0.115 0.116 -0.00032
Jim Thome61258 58.40 0.095 0.095 -0.00066
Brad Eldred60640 40.51 0.066 0.067 -0.00084
Chris B Shelton1116109 110.64 0.098 0.099 -0.00147
Sean Casey1651173 176.48 0.105 0.107 -0.00211
Julio Franco67867 68.73 0.099 0.101 -0.00255
Mike Sweeney66781 82.80 0.121 0.124 -0.00269
Carlos Pena66064 67.44 0.097 0.102 -0.00522
Lance Berkman1052111 116.62 0.106 0.111 -0.00534
Adam LaRoche1576165 174.64 0.105 0.111 -0.00612
Rafael Palmeiro111999 107.12 0.088 0.096 -0.00726
Carlos Delgado1743179 193.49 0.103 0.111 -0.00831
Jason Giambi86463 70.96 0.073 0.082 -0.00922
Olmedo Saenz69659 67.77 0.085 0.097 -0.01260

Probabilistic Model of Range, First Baseman, 2005, Smoothed Visiting Player Model, Ground Balls Only (Grounders + Bunts)
PlayerInPlayActual OutsPredicted OutsDERPredicted DERDifference
Tino Martinez1200126 100.13 0.105 0.083 0.02156
Doug Mientkiewicz969102 82.53 0.105 0.085 0.02009
John Olerud58172 60.58 0.124 0.104 0.01965
Mark Teixeira2131250 210.20 0.117 0.099 0.01868
Chad A Tracy1013105 87.43 0.104 0.086 0.01735
Lance Niekro75285 72.75 0.113 0.097 0.01629
Darin Erstad1694202 178.07 0.119 0.105 0.01412
Ben Broussard1502144 123.30 0.096 0.082 0.01378
Lyle Overbay1658175 158.44 0.106 0.096 0.00999
Hee Seop Choi1054130 119.67 0.123 0.114 0.00980
Albert Pujols2226243 222.85 0.109 0.100 0.00905
Daryle Ward1307122 110.67 0.093 0.085 0.00867
Derrek Lee1969203 186.17 0.103 0.095 0.00855
Ryan J Howard964106 98.58 0.110 0.102 0.00769
Mike Lamb62464 59.61 0.103 0.096 0.00703
Paul Konerko1799181 169.28 0.101 0.094 0.00652
Kevin Millar1177155 147.56 0.132 0.125 0.00632
Todd Helton1870218 207.21 0.117 0.111 0.00577
Justin Morneau1703169 159.45 0.099 0.094 0.00561
Phil Nevin872104 99.62 0.119 0.114 0.00502
Shea Hillenbrand90997 92.46 0.107 0.102 0.00500
J.T. Snow1183130 124.14 0.110 0.105 0.00496
Nick Johnson1498195 189.23 0.130 0.126 0.00385
Eric Hinske1270147 142.13 0.116 0.112 0.00384
Travis Lee1262136 132.07 0.108 0.105 0.00311
Jim Thome61258 57.10 0.095 0.093 0.00146
Tony Clark96082 80.63 0.085 0.084 0.00143
Matt Stairs79679 78.83 0.099 0.099 0.00022
Scott Hatteberg61571 70.94 0.115 0.115 0.00010
Brad Eldred60640 40.07 0.066 0.066 -0.00011
Richie Sexson1835197 198.28 0.107 0.108 -0.00070
Dan R Johnson1211119 120.02 0.098 0.099 -0.00084
Mike Sweeney66781 82.36 0.121 0.123 -0.00204
Sean Casey1651173 176.58 0.105 0.107 -0.00217
Julio Franco67867 68.92 0.099 0.102 -0.00283
Chris B Shelton1116109 112.73 0.098 0.101 -0.00335
Lance Berkman1052111 114.66 0.106 0.109 -0.00348
Carlos Pena66064 68.48 0.097 0.104 -0.00678
Rafael Palmeiro111999 107.23 0.088 0.096 -0.00736
Adam LaRoche1576165 177.37 0.105 0.113 -0.00785
Carlos Delgado1743179 192.77 0.103 0.111 -0.00790
Jason Giambi86463 70.89 0.073 0.082 -0.00914
Olmedo Saenz69659 67.07 0.085 0.096 -0.01160

That's a big jump for Doug Mientkiewicz.


Comments

Look at Olerud, that's pretty impressive for a guy his age. Presumably, he was just as good (or better) in his younger days. Not a lot of people are going to argue for it, but he might be one of the better players who never gets any serious consideration for the HOF.

Posted by: Mike at February 2, 2006 10:49 AM

After looking at all of these charts I'm amazed at how well Bill Mueller rated at 3B and at how not-awful Kevin Millar rated at 1B. I was assuming that Lowell would be a big defensive improvement over Mueller, but that appears not to be the case.

Probably the biggest surprise for me was seeing how great utility man Pedro Feliz is at 3B. Remember the old joke about Tony Philips being able to play four positions, but none of the well? Feliz is the opposite.

p.s. Where do you explain the Probabilistic Model Defensive charts? What is the x-axis?

Posted by: Henry Woodbury at February 2, 2006 01:27 PM

Re: Olmedo Saenz. Ouch.

Posted by: Adam Villani at February 4, 2006 04:23 AM
Post a comment









Remember personal info?