Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, First Basemen

February 01, 2006

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, First Basemen

It's time for the statistics for the first basemen:

Probabilistic Model of Range, First Basemen, 2005, Original Model
Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Tino Martinez	2398	178	141.40	0.074	0.059	0.01526
Jose Hernandez	1021	77	63.94	0.075	0.063	0.01279
John Olerud	1341	107	90.47	0.080	0.067	0.01233
Ben Broussard	3160	220	181.42	0.070	0.057	0.01221
Chad A Tracy	2034	155	131.35	0.076	0.065	0.01163
Travis Lee	2952	240	208.94	0.081	0.071	0.01052
Mark Teixeira	4407	347	301.54	0.079	0.068	0.01032
Doug Mientkiewicz	2055	153	132.12	0.074	0.064	0.01016
Darin Erstad	3822	304	266.06	0.080	0.070	0.00993
Lance Niekro	1636	132	117.41	0.081	0.072	0.00892
Paul Konerko	3860	288	255.66	0.075	0.066	0.00838
Daryle Ward	2779	171	153.58	0.062	0.055	0.00627
Ryan J Howard	2013	154	141.68	0.077	0.070	0.00612
Derrek Lee	3959	288	265.84	0.073	0.067	0.00560
Albert Pujols	4150	318	294.88	0.077	0.071	0.00557
Lyle Overbay	3764	269	248.13	0.071	0.066	0.00554
Kevin Millar	2581	218	203.73	0.084	0.079	0.00553
Hee Seop Choi	2084	165	154.19	0.079	0.074	0.00519
Mark Sweeney	1017	79	75.04	0.078	0.074	0.00389
Eduardo Perez	1058	68	63.94	0.064	0.060	0.00384
Todd Helton	3943	293	278.32	0.074	0.071	0.00372
Mike Lamb	1255	85	80.40	0.068	0.064	0.00367
J.T. Snow	2617	197	188.76	0.075	0.072	0.00315
Nick Johnson	3447	286	276.94	0.083	0.080	0.00263
Chris B Shelton	2337	152	146.52	0.065	0.063	0.00234
Matt Stairs	1679	109	106.46	0.065	0.063	0.00151
Justin Morneau	3621	256	251.36	0.071	0.069	0.00128
Scott Hatteberg	1335	101	99.32	0.076	0.074	0.00126
Sean Casey	3663	255	251.80	0.070	0.069	0.00087
Mike Sweeney	1377	112	111.02	0.081	0.081	0.00071
Dan R Johnson	2560	190	188.77	0.074	0.074	0.00048
Shea Hillenbrand	1835	130	129.88	0.071	0.071	0.00007
Richie Sexson	4177	269	269.29	0.064	0.064	-0.00007
Tony Clark	2011	124	124.19	0.062	0.062	-0.00009
Phil Nevin	1884	139	140.51	0.074	0.075	-0.00080
Brad Eldred	1268	64	65.58	0.050	0.052	-0.00125
Adam LaRoche	3240	241	245.85	0.074	0.076	-0.00150
Carlos Delgado	3649	257	264.15	0.070	0.072	-0.00196
Eric Hinske	2676	194	199.28	0.072	0.074	-0.00197
Lance Berkman	2121	144	151.70	0.068	0.072	-0.00363
Jim Thome	1337	76	81.29	0.057	0.061	-0.00396
Rafael Palmeiro	2281	144	153.34	0.063	0.067	-0.00410
Julio Franco	1318	84	90.10	0.064	0.068	-0.00463
Carlos Pena	1363	98	105.67	0.072	0.078	-0.00563
Jason Giambi	1797	94	107.90	0.052	0.060	-0.00773
Olmedo Saenz	1426	77	91.72	0.054	0.064	-0.01032

Probabilistic Model of Range, First Baseman, 2005, Smoothed Visiting Player Model
Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Tino Martinez	2398	178	140.67	0.074	0.059	0.01557
Jose Hernandez	1021	77	62.11	0.075	0.061	0.01458
John Olerud	1341	107	88.32	0.080	0.066	0.01393
Chad A Tracy	2034	155	128.16	0.076	0.063	0.01320
Doug Mientkiewicz	2055	153	126.32	0.074	0.061	0.01298
Mark Teixeira	4407	347	290.41	0.079	0.066	0.01284
Ben Broussard	3160	220	180.81	0.070	0.057	0.01240
Travis Lee	2952	240	206.10	0.081	0.070	0.01148
Darin Erstad	3822	304	261.19	0.080	0.068	0.01120
Lance Niekro	1636	132	115.97	0.081	0.071	0.00980
Paul Konerko	3860	288	257.63	0.075	0.067	0.00787
Lyle Overbay	3764	269	242.11	0.071	0.064	0.00714
Derrek Lee	3959	288	260.24	0.073	0.066	0.00701
Eduardo Perez	1058	68	61.40	0.064	0.058	0.00624
Albert Pujols	4150	318	292.89	0.077	0.071	0.00605
Kevin Millar	2581	218	202.57	0.084	0.078	0.00598
Daryle Ward	2779	171	154.99	0.062	0.056	0.00576
Ryan J Howard	2013	154	142.50	0.077	0.071	0.00571
Todd Helton	3943	293	272.69	0.074	0.069	0.00515
Hee Seop Choi	2084	165	155.34	0.079	0.075	0.00464
Mike Lamb	1255	85	79.57	0.068	0.063	0.00433
Mark Sweeney	1017	79	74.87	0.078	0.074	0.00406
J.T. Snow	2617	197	187.48	0.075	0.072	0.00364
Scott Hatteberg	1335	101	97.26	0.076	0.073	0.00280
Nick Johnson	3447	286	276.62	0.083	0.080	0.00272
Chris B Shelton	2337	152	147.75	0.065	0.063	0.00182
Tony Clark	2011	124	121.13	0.062	0.060	0.00143
Sean Casey	3663	255	249.97	0.070	0.068	0.00137
Justin Morneau	3621	256	251.30	0.071	0.069	0.00130
Matt Stairs	1679	109	107.03	0.065	0.064	0.00117
Mike Sweeney	1377	112	111.16	0.081	0.081	0.00061
Brad Eldred	1268	64	64.05	0.050	0.051	-0.00004
Dan R Johnson	2560	190	190.41	0.074	0.074	-0.00016
Phil Nevin	1884	139	139.54	0.074	0.074	-0.00028
Richie Sexson	4177	269	273.34	0.064	0.065	-0.00104
Carlos Delgado	3649	257	261.78	0.070	0.072	-0.00131
Shea Hillenbrand	1835	130	133.25	0.071	0.073	-0.00177
Adam LaRoche	3240	241	247.17	0.074	0.076	-0.00191
Eric Hinske	2676	194	201.57	0.072	0.075	-0.00283
Lance Berkman	2121	144	152.07	0.068	0.072	-0.00381
Jim Thome	1337	76	82.13	0.057	0.061	-0.00459
Rafael Palmeiro	2281	144	154.66	0.063	0.068	-0.00467
Julio Franco	1318	84	90.24	0.064	0.068	-0.00473
Jason Giambi	1797	94	107.12	0.052	0.060	-0.00730
Carlos Pena	1363	98	108.12	0.072	0.079	-0.00742
Olmedo Saenz	1426	77	90.94	0.054	0.064	-0.00978

When Olerud's name is near the top and Giambi's name is near the bottom, I become very comfortable with the data. It will be interesting to see what the ground ball data show us.

Posted by David Pinto at 04:22 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)

Comments

I had always considered Todd Helton a good defensive first baseman. Is the fact that so many more balls are put in play in Colorado a factor in this statistical analysis, (and explain his poor ranking), or was it just an off year.

Posted by: david at February 1, 2006 07:13 PM

Looking at Teixeira and Blalock's numbers, I'm wondering... in a perfect world (one that doesn't have Ichiro in RF and A-Rod at 3B), should Texas' two corner men swap positions?

Something else... did the Jays waste Hudson at 2B? Should this guy be playing SS?

Posted by: Jurgen at February 2, 2006 01:11 AM

Heh, I guess I shouldn't have made fun of Mike Shannon for constantly praising Tino's ability to chase down a fly ball...

Posted by: JeremyR at February 2, 2006 03:21 AM

Teixiera was not a good third baseman in college or in the minors, much worse than Blalock. Has has become an excellent firstbaseman. Blalock has no range, but a good arm and solid hands. I just can't see them switching places.

Posted by: trza at February 2, 2006 01:35 PM

Paul Konerko is better than Derek Lee?? WHAT????

Posted by: Boomer at February 3, 2006 10:53 AM