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January 24, 2006
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Second Basemen
Update 1/25/2006: I discovered a data error that will likely change the values in these tables. Look for a new post with new data soon. Here are the tables for second basemen in 2005. I'll do the full model in this post, and just ground balls in another.
The Arizona Diamondbacks picked up a defensive gem in Orlando Hudson. Counsell was fine at the position, too, which is why they're comfortable moving him back to shortstop. It will be "Death to ground balls up the middle" in Phoenix next year. I'm impressed again that Rich Aurilia does well. He ranked high on the shortstop list last year. Not so in New York, where Robinson Cano ranks right near the bottom with Derek Jeter. And you can see why the Nationals would rather play Vidro at second than Soriano. Comments
Alfonso Soriano had 400 more balls in play than the next highest second baseman? Holy crap. Is there any explanation for that? Posted by: David Cameron at January 24, 2006 10:04 PMLooks like Giles has the 2nd highest InPlay. Soriano played 1351 inn. at 2B, Giles only played 1276 inn. Soriano saw 3.193 balls in play per inn. Giles saw 3.076. Considering that Texas' stadium is know for high-scoring affairs, it's not surprising to me that'd Soriano would see a fraction more balls in play per inning... It's pretty impressive that no matter what metric you use---whether it be win shares, ZR, B-Pro's stats or this ---Orlando Hudson always winds up on top. There aren't too many players that they ALL agree on like that. Posted by: Pseudonym at January 24, 2006 10:16 PMSoriano played 80 more innings than any other 2B. Cano is a surprise. Him and Jeter combined cost the Yankees near 100 runs? ZR had him around average. Posted by: Rally Monkey at January 24, 2006 10:27 PMJeter and Cano are around -120 outs vs expected, though the Yankees almost exactly match expected outs. Who's giving them the +120? Matsui, Bernie, and Sheffield are terrible OF's. Is A-Rod a one man team> I can't wait to find out. Posted by: Rally Monkey at January 24, 2006 10:32 PMHow should the actual outs in this model match up with other stats? For example, the Yankees are listed as having 3087 acutal outs on balls in play. They have: 4292 PO, of which 985 are K, 50 are CS and 399 are DP. That leaves only 2858 first outs on balls in play. Where do the extra outs come from? I can't find the right # at the moment, but the Yanks didn't turn anywhere close to 399 DP. And one out for each DP is a BIP-out. Is it that the DPs on stats pages are double counted (i.e. you get two for a 6-4-3)? That would be most of the difference. Posted by: bruce at January 25, 2006 11:09 AMLooks like you have a few guys missing from the smoothed model: Alex Cora, Chone Figgins, and Deivi Cruz. Did that model make their opportunities drop below a certain threshold? Posted by: BHW at January 25, 2006 12:43 PMDavid: Why do the number of balls in play and actual outs change between the original model and the smoothed one? For example, Hudson has 482 actual outs in the smoothed one and 488 in the original. This happens for 2b but did not happen on the ss version. And thanks for doing all this work!! It is loads of fun to play around with. Posted by: bruce at January 25, 2006 01:06 PMI'll have to look at the 2B code. It's possible that going from one model to the other I made a change that wasn't correct. Actual outs should be the same. Posted by: David Pinto at January 25, 2006 01:50 PMPost a comment
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