Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
January 10, 2006
Gaining Ground

Dan Lewis writes:

In 2005, there were 516 votes. In '06, there were 520. Here's how those who _didn't_ get the call in 2005 fared, comparing last year to this (min 100 votes in both years), in order of their 2005 finish.
  • Sutter: +56
  • Jim Rice: +30
  • Goose: +51
  • Andre Dawson: +34
  • Blyleven: +66
  • Lee Smith: +34
  • Jack Morris: +42
  • Tommy John: +32
  • Steve Garvey: +29

It's interesting to see that all eight players made significant gains. Even assuming that the new voters all voted in favor of these eight, only Garvey did not get 5% more "new" votes (and he was close -- 5% is 26 votes.)

Those of us in the Enshrine Bert Movement should take specific note of the gains he made. Even if you assume some sort of inflation for a year with little new blood of note, Blyleven still made huge gains.



Posted by David Pinto at 03:16 PM | All-Time Greats | TrackBack (0)
Comments

My apologies if there are any math mistakes, but the point should hold.

Posted by: Dan Lewis at January 10, 2006 03:25 PM

Blyleven's gains should be wiped out next year when Gwynn, Ripken, and McGwire, three who should all be first balloters, make their appearance on the slate. Sorry, Dan! I'm with you on that one, but I think 2006 was Bert's best pre-Veterans Committee chance.

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak at January 10, 2006 03:54 PM

I dunno. First, I never expected Bert to get in in '07 -- I'm just saying he's getting closer. That should continue. Blyleven is still the best SP out there, even with those three. Bert was just under 30% in '03. Now, he's at almost 54%. That's almost +24%.

Over the same period:
Jack Morris: 23% to 41% (+18)
Tommy John: 23% to 30% (+7)
Goose Gossage: 42% to 64.5% (+22.5)
Lee Smith: 42% to 45% (+3)
Andre Dawson: 50% to 61% (+11)
Jim Rice: 52% to 65% (+13)
Bruce Sutter: 54% to 77% (+23)
(Ryne Sandberg was at 50%, but he also suffered from first year bias in '03.)

That kind of gain is not one easily reversed. He'll probably pick up a few more votes next year -- not enough to get to 75%, but perhaps to 60%? -- and should have a good shot in '08 or '09.

Posted by: Dan Lewis at January 10, 2006 04:10 PM

re: bert blyleven

yes, blyleven should be elected to the HOF as well.

his win shares and his stats are well above the threshold.

--arthur john kyriazis
--philly

Posted by: arthur john kyriazis at January 11, 2006 05:12 PM

Andre Dawson deserves to get to the Hall of Fame after many stellar seasons with the expos and cubs. The stints with the red sox and marlins were a lilttle sore for him I'm sure but his 1st two teams should get him in. Did Bruce Sutter deserve to go NO WAY. Andre Dawson and Bert Blyleven deserve to go without a doubt with Lee Smith a very Close Third.

Posted by: Chris The Cubbie at January 22, 2006 07:18 PM
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