January 10, 2006
Gaining Ground
Dan Lewis writes:
In 2005, there were 516 votes. In '06, there were 520. Here's how those who _didn't_ get the call in 2005 fared, comparing last year to this (min 100 votes in both years), in order of their 2005 finish.
- Sutter: +56
- Jim Rice: +30
- Goose: +51
- Andre Dawson: +34
- Blyleven: +66
- Lee Smith: +34
- Jack Morris: +42
- Tommy John: +32
- Steve Garvey: +29
It's interesting to see that all eight players made significant gains. Even assuming that the new voters all voted in favor of these eight, only Garvey did not get 5% more "new" votes (and he was close -- 5% is 26 votes.)
Those of us in the Enshrine Bert Movement should take specific note of the gains he made. Even if you assume some sort of inflation for a year with little new blood of note, Blyleven still made huge gains.
My apologies if there are any math mistakes, but the point should hold.
Blyleven's gains should be wiped out next year when Gwynn, Ripken, and McGwire, three who should all be first balloters, make their appearance on the slate. Sorry, Dan! I'm with you on that one, but I think 2006 was Bert's best pre-Veterans Committee chance.
I dunno. First, I never expected Bert to get in in '07 -- I'm just saying he's getting closer. That should continue. Blyleven is still the best SP out there, even with those three. Bert was just under 30% in '03. Now, he's at almost 54%. That's almost +24%.
Over the same period:
Jack Morris: 23% to 41% (+18)
Tommy John: 23% to 30% (+7)
Goose Gossage: 42% to 64.5% (+22.5)
Lee Smith: 42% to 45% (+3)
Andre Dawson: 50% to 61% (+11)
Jim Rice: 52% to 65% (+13)
Bruce Sutter: 54% to 77% (+23)
(Ryne Sandberg was at 50%, but he also suffered from first year bias in '03.)
That kind of gain is not one easily reversed. He'll probably pick up a few more votes next year -- not enough to get to 75%, but perhaps to 60%? -- and should have a good shot in '08 or '09.
re: bert blyleven
yes, blyleven should be elected to the HOF as well.
his win shares and his stats are well above the threshold.
--arthur john kyriazis
--philly
Andre Dawson deserves to get to the Hall of Fame after many stellar seasons with the expos and cubs. The stints with the red sox and marlins were a lilttle sore for him I'm sure but his 1st two teams should get him in. Did Bruce Sutter deserve to go NO WAY. Andre Dawson and Bert Blyleven deserve to go without a doubt with Lee Smith a very Close Third.