December 27, 2005
What do the Indians See in Jason Johnson?
The Cleveland Indians signed former Oriole and Tiger Jason Johnson to a one-year, $4 million contract. He'll take the spot in the rotation occupied by Kevin Millwood. Johnson has a 4.88 ERA. Why did Cleveland agree to put such a pitcher in their rotation? Let's look at his walk and strikeout rates over his career:
Jason Johnson, career.
| 1997 | 23 | 4.5 | 1.5 |
| 1998 | 24 | 5.4 | 4.05 |
| 1999 | 25 | 5.54 | 4.292 |
| 2000 | 26 | 6.604 | 5.099 |
| 2001 | 27 | 5.235 | 3.536 |
| 2002 | 28 | 6.647 | 2.81 |
| 2003 | 29 | 5.599 | 3.796 |
| 2004 | 30 | 5.72 | 2.746 |
| 2005 | 31 | 3.986 | 2.1 |
Johnson's improved his walk numbers greatly over the last few seasons. Unfortunately, his strikeout numbers sank to a new low in 2005, not reaching four per 9. So batters put a lot of balls in play against Johnson. The Indians, however, play excellent defense, posting the 2nd best DER in 2005 in the American League. That means they can cover up Johnson's weakness in strikeouts, while taking advantage of his strength in walks. He's a cheap fifth starter who should give the Indians 200 innings, and he won't kill the team because of the defense behind him.
How many fifth starters log close to 200 innings? In 2005, about 50 starters rolled the odometer twice. For that matter, isn't it proper form to skip the fifth starter when the Front Four are on normal rest? (Do the Indians work that way?)
Dennis,
I wish more teams worked the fifth starter the way you describe. Most teams, I believe, use the fifth starter just like the other four.
What I really don't get is why Shapiro would sign a pitcher who is awful against the other teams in his division. Since joining the AL Central in 2004, Johnson is 4-1 with a 5.29 ERA against KC, 1-3 6.08 against the White Sox, and 1-8 6.67 against that great Twins offense. It seems these teams have figured him out. He wasn't any better against the Indians either, so Shapiro wasn't basing it on performance against his own team. I can't know why Johnson would want to stay in the AL Central or why the Indians would want to give him $4 million dollars.
Without sounding like too much of a Johnson apologist, the shift in strikeouts I believe was somewhat intentional. Johnson became a much more efficient pitcher this past season in terms of pitches/plate appearance, which probably helped him break 200 innings for the first time He was inducing more ground balls, and doing so earlier in the count. At least he was the first half of the season. The second half his groundballs plummeted and line drives took their place.
Where he'd get really exposed is when he could't keep the ball down - and because he wasn't striking guys out - he'd get hammered (of course this is an issue for almost every pitcher)
Johnson's numbers are very close to Scott Elarton's, but without Elarton's streakiness. He's a guy who can go out every fifth day and pitch 6-7 innings, giving up three runs. So he shouldn't be thought of as a replacement for Millwood, despite the timing. He's a replacement for Elarton. The Indians have a couple guys in the high minors they're counting one for 2007 - Johnson is the bridge to them. I think it's a sensible signing. Exciting is better, but sensible is good.