Baseball Musings: Millwood Parks a Contract

December 27, 2005

Millwood Parks a Contract

The Texas Rangers land a big name free agent pitcher, signing Kevin Millwood to a quasi five-year deal:

Millwood is the first pitcher to get a five-year deal from Texas since Chan Ho Park. The Rangers had said repeatedly that they wouldn't give out five-year contracts for pitchers again after the club's ill-fated signing of Park for $65 million before the 2002 season.
But they made an exception for Millwood, a front-line starter who should lead a rotation that has been reshaped this off-season.

The fifth year depends on Millwood reaching a certain level, so I guess the Rangers will argue it's not really a five year deal. Are they getting another Chan Ho Park, however?

The thing that struck me about Park at the time of the Texas deal was Chan Ho's home/road breakdown. Park's ERA in his time with the Dodgers was almost two runs worse away from Los Angeles. It's not clear why, however. Park walked a few more people on the road, but struck out more and his home runs allowed were nearly the same. What's clear is that many more balls in play were falling for hits away from Chavez Ravine. There was something about Dodger Stadium that greatly benefited Park, and that benefit did not exist on the road.

Millwood's been pretty even home and road (having called a few different parks home over the years). What should be encouraging to the Rangers are his splits at Citizens Bank Park, a park with a high home run index. According to The Bill James Handbook 2006, Texas has a home run index of 119, second highest in the AL. Philadelphia has an index of 121, second in the NL. Millwood allowed just eight home runs in Philadelphia in 2004 vs. six on the road. Part of it may be that Millwood was willing to intimidate batters, as he hit six at CBP but just one on the road that year.

So the home/road problem isn't there for Millwood. The evidence is that ball parks don't effect him very much. My big question is, do the Rangers believe they are getting the AL ERA leader? Millwood's league leading ERA in 2005 was due to a combination of luck and good defense. His DIPS ERA (3.88) was a run higher than his actual ERA (2.86). Millwood pitched extremely well with runners in scoring position last season, something that is out of character with previous seasons.

What the Rangers have is a pitcher that's capable of posting an ERA in the low fours. Given the level of offense Texas produces every year, Millwood can win a lot of games with that level of pitching. That makes him worth a lot of money to the Rangers. We'll know just how much when the contract is finalized.

Posted by David Pinto at 09:01 AM | Free Agents | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Nice to see the Sox lose out on another FA bidding war :-)

Posted by: Jason at December 27, 2005 10:03 AM

You bring up a good point about the DIPS and pitching with RISP. I was shocked a few days ago to read that the Red Sox were interested in this guy. Given his ERA this year, I thought for sure he'd get a decent contract (looks like he did), and I couldn't believe the Sox were going to fall for the old "one good year of ERA" thing. My money's on him not getting that 5th year of the deal.

Posted by: Mike at December 27, 2005 10:13 AM

the chan ho park clause

Posted by: colin at December 27, 2005 11:08 AM

That's a lot of money for Millwood. He should do okay after all, though...his ERA will certainly suffer, both from a loss of the luck he enjoyed last year and from playing in Texas. Still, he strikes out plenty of guys...about 7 per 9, and doesn't walk to many...about 2.5 per 9...so he isn't overly reliant on his defense (his BA on balls in play last year was .286...pretty average...and he still only allowed 3.38 runs per game...that last stat takes the 'earned' out of ERA and includes all runs scored on him). If he can stay healthy, I'll be he clocks at least a couple of 3.90 - 4.30 ERA seasons, good for 16-19 wins if the Texas offense remains potent.

Posted by: Dave S. at December 27, 2005 11:22 AM

I was surprised by the contract because he got more than Burnett. (I know particulars of the contracts can make them different.)

While I did not like the Burnett signing, I cannot fathom how Boras suckered Texas again.

An 'F" for John Daniels and Tom Hicks.

Posted by: Rotomusings at December 27, 2005 12:34 PM

With regard to Park, maybe it wasn't just a park effect. While his performanced suggested a decline based solely on moving out of Chavez, his performance declined everywhere: pitchers' parks, hitters parks, filling out TPS reports, ... everywhere. He currently pitches incredibly poorly in Petco's spacious field, so maybe that's not the problem.

For me, a better guy to use as a litmus test is a guy like Eric Milton, who seems to be the exact pitcher the Reds wouldn't want. Millwood's stats don't suggest to me a Milton-esque future, and he's been relatively dependable from year to year.

Posted by: michael at December 27, 2005 03:38 PM

Some people never learn...the producers of Chan Ho Park bring you the new blockbuster: Kevin Millwood. Any other team i could understand doing this, but the rangers, i just cannot comprehend this. After paying Park and A-rod $150 million to come in last place every year during their time spent in arlington one would think a lesson would be learned. This is completly rediculous...I mean, i know the rangers are desperate, but they should have signed someone(s) like jason johnson or mark redman to balance that awful rotation, not just put one bright spot in it. I hope for texas' sake that adam eaton performs

Posted by: tony flynn at December 27, 2005 07:24 PM

It is funny that Texas has oft complained of the unfair business markets, and of teams spending boatloads of dough and running up the market...

Posted by: Dave S. at December 27, 2005 08:54 PM

i watch park this year in la and in sd. the guy clearly has no guts. he had 1 superurb year and cashed in.

the rangers do have 3 pitchers that will pitch 200+ innings that is scary. and that offense. wow!!

I wonder if millwood wished he was back in atl. with hudson, smoltz

Posted by: colin at December 28, 2005 02:00 AM

we shall see what effect 'the coors field of the AL' has on the old boy

Posted by: tony flynn at December 28, 2005 02:33 AM

If Millwood Citizen Bank numbers and even his career numbers with the Braves and Phillies are correct, we should foresee a 4.66 ERA. I know the Rangers have a good offense, but 4.66 is not $12 Million/yr pitcher. I know the Rangers are in desperate need for starters, especially a top starter, but I think Millwood proved when he was with the Phillies that he is not a top of the line starter. I think he will struggle this year and many will consider him Chan Ho Park. Though he has better numbers than Park (and he - Millwood - did well against the AL last season), I do not foresee this as a good move.

Posted by: Bob at December 28, 2005 09:06 AM

i see the rangers winning the west and losing in the first round to guess who? the yankees. series going 3-2

Posted by: colin at December 28, 2005 03:09 PM

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