Baseball Musings: Resisting Change

November 07, 2005

Resisting Change

Kevin Millar (being an "idiot") doesn't understand why the Red Sox don't want to keep an aging team together:

“We’d been very fortunate to have the same group of guys, basically, for three straight seasons. We’ve been the same, and that’s been awesome. Plus, we were the (first team in franchise history) to win 95-plus games for three straight seasons. . . . Why is it such a thing that when a team has that kind of success, there’s so much interest in making change? I’ve never understood that.
“Look at the Patriots,” Millar added. “The Patriots have been so good and won three Super Bowls because they’ve stayed the same. . . . I think we lost track of that a little bit. We start thinking about change so much, and I don’t think we needed to.”

I'm not that big a football fan, but it strikes me that the Partriots are very good at moving players every year, much like the Atlanta Braves. (Patriots fans, please comment!) When a team wins, the temptation is to hold on to the same players for the next year. Teams that don't win tend to address weaknesses more vigorously. That's one reason it's difficult to repeat; the winner freezes the roster and tends to decline, while the loser makes the team better. That the Red Sox are willing to remake the roster after three winning seasons shows wisdom on the part of management (at least, the management that's left).

Posted by David Pinto at 07:29 AM | Free Agents | TrackBack (1)

Comments

The big thing with the Patriots every winter is "Can they win after so much turnover on the roster?"

Yes many key players stay, but they just as easily tell key players to screw when they want too much money. Lawyer Milloy, potential future Hall of Famer Ty Law, and almost Richard Seymour this year. No individual players get in the way of the team's plans, regardless of who they may be.

Posted by: Marc Normandin at November 7, 2005 08:45 AM

Sort of. The Patriots have kept the same core over the last few years, but they have let go some big names due to not wanting to pay them: Lawyer Milloy, Ted Washington, and Ty Law come to mind. The Pats would be a better team with any of those guys in place of who we have now on a man-for-man basis. But the salary those guys wanted was too much for a capped team to pay.

The Patriots have retained the same core because players are willing to take a below-market salary to play there. Remember Troy Brown? He was the guy who was a receiver who filled in on defense as well last year, as well as being a special teams player as well. That just doesn't happen these days. Well, he got cut over the offseason, but is back with the Patriots because he signed a new contract worth less money.

If Millar wants to make this analogy, the Red Sox could keep their "core" as well if Damon signs for 2 years at $5 million a year, Millar agrees to play for free, and we cut Renteria and resigned him at whatever Eckstein is making - like $3.5 million a year.

The rules of NFL contracts allow the Patriots to operate like this, and their success as a team is what makes players willing to go through this to play for them year after year.

Posted by: Mike at November 7, 2005 08:50 AM

I wish they could cut Renteria.

Posted by: Marc Normandin at November 7, 2005 08:58 AM

Teams must either have relatively endless resources (Boston might qualify) or they must constantly evolve to stay competitive.

Millar's production could have been matched by perhaps two dozen minor league players for a fraction of the salary paid Kevin and better defense to boot.

Renteria's best years are probably behind him and his contract is an albatross but he is capable of bouncing back with a solid season and is a quality defender.

You don't make the same mistake two years in a row by offering Damon similar money at a similar point in his career. It would seem to me that Boston could commit to overpaying for Damon on a 2-year deal only.

Atlanta has an interesting dilemma with Furcal. It may take 10 mil for 4 years to sign him. I'm not sure we've seen Furcal's best season yet and he plays a key middle infield position as well as the leadoff role (though just middle of the pack in terms of OBP). I'm guessing Raffy is gone but he will be awfully tough to replace in the Braves' line-up.

Posted by: Bill McKinley at November 7, 2005 09:43 AM

Speaking of Millar replacements....

ROBERTO PETAGINE!

It will take awhile for me to get over that one.

Posted by: Marc normandin at November 7, 2005 10:49 AM

Why are people still dwelling on Petagine? Can we give up on that experiment now? He's shown zero ability to hit Major League pitching. And he'll turn 35 next year.

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak at November 7, 2005 11:03 AM

He hit .281/.361/.438 in limited time after crushing International League pitching. It isn't that I expect that much more out of him (.280/.375/.450 is the highpoint of my expectations) but the fact that he is 1) inexpensive and 2)Millar's season line was .272/.355/.399 makes me wish Petagine had played.

All players age differently, and when your not paying him much for his services and can easily cut him, 35 is not as big a deal as it would be for a player of even Millar's slight stature.

Posted by: Marc Normandin at November 7, 2005 12:06 PM

I guess when you compare Millar -- the king of groundless self-promotion -- to Petagine, the Sox would be better off using Petagine for a few months at least. It's good bad for the Sox that Ian Bladergroen has been slowed by a wrist injury similar to the one that Nick Johnson has been saddled with.

Posted by: Benjamin Kabak at November 7, 2005 01:48 PM

Petagine had 36 plate appearances this year, so any conclusions from his performance are pretty unreliable. His career stats, based on more than 400 PA's, are thoroughly unimpressive for a 1B (.725 OPS). And he is not likely to improve enormously at his age.

Sorry, but I think Renteria is in terminal decline. And the Sox overrated him to begin with. I wouldn't be surprised by a sub-.700 OPS next year. He almost got there this year.

A blockbuster possibility would be Manny for Delgado and (importantly) some pitching. This would keep the offense going and provide some desperately needed help for the staff ERA. I just don't know if Florida would be willing to offer enough pitching to interest the Sox.

Or they could just decide to expand the budget, keep Manny, and make a serious offer for Konerko (.901 OPS over the last two years, .844 or better in four of the five previous years). Would make more sense than all the money lavished on Renteria. But the Angels look serious about Konerko, so the Sox probably don't want a bidding war.

Posted by: Casey Abell at November 7, 2005 01:57 PM

Come to think of it, I can't imagine Florida dumping Delgado's salary only to take on Manny's. Any possible deal would mean the Sox paying a lot or even most of Manny's contract. That might entice Florida to part with some pitching.

Ah, I don't know. The Sox will probably still have to bludgeon other teams to win, with Schilling's future in doubt and the rest of the staff not exactly imposing. So letting Manny be Manny (in Fenway) might be unavoidable. Just too much offense to give up.

Konerko does look like the best free agent possibility to fill the hole at first, but he's probably too expensive even for the Sox.

Posted by: Casey Abell at November 7, 2005 02:05 PM

I've been on the Renteria is on the decline bandwagon for awhile now. I think I might've started it moving here in Boston. Especially since no one would support my idea...damn optimism.

Posted by: Marc Normandin at November 7, 2005 02:23 PM

Theo understood that you keep the players based on what they will do, not what they have done. Millar does not.

Posted by: Al at November 7, 2005 09:05 PM

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