September 29, 2005
Papi Pops
Ortiz ties the game with a homer in the 8th.
Update: The Red Sox have Damon and Renteria on 1st and 2nd in the 9th with one out. Big Papi is up.
Update: Ortiz singles to score Damon and give the Red Sox the win. The three way tie is still a possibility!
Posted by David Pinto at
10:04 PM
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As a Sox fan, Hinske is really starting to irritate me!
I think those 2 innings just won Ortiz the MVP.
Does Ortiz go some way to debunk the Sabermetricians' view that there is no such thing as "clutch"? I'd say for the last three years he's been clutch, and that's a long time.
Clutch is in the eye of the beholder. If Ortiz does the same thing in the third inning and the Sox win, you don't get the same level of interest in his clutch ability, but the result is the same. Also, we tend to remember the big late hits but forget the failures. My guess is if you go back and count the times he didn't hit in the ninth, his batting might seem less impressive.
By the way, if A-Rod has big clutch hits in the late innings this weekend, are you going to change your mind and give the MVP to him?
I've posted this once before, and at risk of sounding like a broken record....over at Baseball Prospectus they have a great series of articles on clutchness, and it shows that there is no doubt that Ortiz has been hugely clutch this year, collecting hits that statisically increase the chances of Boston winning more games than any other player in baseball. However, his "clutchness" this year doesn't really correlate across multiple seasons. In fact, few enough players actually do have any long-term correlation to consider it any more than general luck. It isn't to say that Ortiz isn't a great hitter, and having loads of clutch hits this year...it's more that clutchness isn't something that's predictable or repeated across multiple seasons for the same players. Their measurement is outlined pretty clearly over two articles, and it's definitely some cool math. They listed the top and bottom clutch players over the last six seasons, and it's pretty amazing who's on the lists. Surprising indeed. The tops:
Name Years LEV Clutch Clutch/Yr
Jeromy Burnitz 6 0.991 9.08 1.51
Fred McGriff 5 0.960 8.30 1.66
Mike Sweeney 6 0.968 7.77 1.29
Jose Vidro 6 1.015 6.83 1.14
Jason Kendall 6 0.977 6.80 1.13
Ryan Klesko 6 0.991 6.74 1.12
Matt Lawton 6 0.982 6.57 1.09
Jacque Jones 6 1.041 6.48 1.08
Randy Winn 6 0.968 6.24 1.04
Greg Vaughn 4 0.895 6.23 1.56
Brian Giles 6 0.955 5.92 0.99
Tony Clark 6 0.959 5.85 0.97
Richie Sexson 6 0.955 5.52 0.92
Carlos Delgado 6 0.993 5.47 0.91
Lance Berkman 6 1.012 5.30 0.88
And the bottom:
Name Years LEV Clutch Clutch/Yr
Neifi Perez 6 1.013 -5.08 -0.85
Alex Gonzalez 6 1.015 -5.40 -0.90
Eric Young 6 1.003 -5.43 -0.91
Michael Barrett 6 0.989 -5.46 -0.91
Marvin Benard 4 1.046 -5.55 -1.39
Magglio Ordonez 6 1.003 -5.56 -0.93
Damian Miller 6 1.084 -5.87 -0.98
Brad Ausmus 6 1.048 -5.87 -0.98
Mike Lieberthal 6 1.041 -6.00 -1.00
Derek Jeter 6 1.049 -6.28 -1.05
Bill Mueller 6 1.028 -6.65 -1.11
Ivan Rodriguez 6 1.027 -6.67 -1.11
Albert Pujols 5 1.043 -6.88 -1.38
Richard Hidalgo 6 1.020 -7.15 -1.19
Alfonso Soriano 6 1.035 -7.26 -1.21
Astonishing...Burnitz is the most "clutch" hitter in baseball over the last six season? And Albert Pujols is third from last?
I think there's some truth to the point about remembering the big hits better than the failures, but I don't think that's the only thing going on with Ortiz. I just came across some numbers from BP quoted on SoSH. James Click rated all players by WINS "WINS is defined as the total change in WEx over the season in each batter’s PAs" Ortiz comes out on top with 7.12. A-Rod is 8th with 4.59. I don't know if these numbers are predictive, but as a description of what he's done this season, I think it shows that Ortiz has been getting the big hits.