Baseball Musings: Damon at 28

July 17, 2005

Damon at 28

Johnny Damon extended his hit streak to 28 games yesterday, putting him halfway to DiMaggio's magic number of 56. This is when hit streak get interesting to me; all you have to do at this point is repeat what you just did! :-) Notice Damon has played 29 games during the streak, but he did not bat on 6/22 so the game does not count against the streak.

One thing that helps Damon is the number of plate appearances he's getting. During the streak, he averages 4.8 PA per game. The more you come to the plate in a game, the more likely you are to get a hit.

When I work on hitting streaks, I like to use a statistic I call hit average, hits divided by plate appearance. It's the probability that you'll get a hit once you step to the plate. Wade Boggs and Tony Gwynn had very similar batting averages, but Gwynn had a higher hit average than Boggs because he walked a lot less. This season, Damon has 124 hits in 391 plate appearances for a hit average of .317. That means, if Damon gets one plate appearance in a game, his chance of extending his hit streak is .317.

Chance of Johnny Damon Extending His Hit Streak
Number of PA	Probability of Extending Streak
1	.317
2	.534
3	.681
4	.782
5	.851
6	.898

For the season, Damon is averaging 4.8 PA per game. That means, in a 5 game stretch, we would expect Johnny to have four games with five plate appearances and 1 game with four plate appearances. So the probability of hitting in five straight could be approximated as .851^4 * .782 or .41. For 28 games, I'll be a little conservative and use .851^22 * .782^6 (^ means raised to the power). That means the probability of Damon hitting in another 28 straight games is .00657 or about 1 chance in 152.

Remember, the chance of the streak continuing has nothing to do with what's gone on before. At the start of the streak, Damon had a .000043 chance of going 56 games. But every game he extends the chain makes the rest of the streak more likely.

The next milestone is DiMaggio's Boston record; Dom DiMaggio that is. The Little Professor hit in 34 straight for the Red Sox in 1949. Boggs couldn't top that; we'll see if Damon can.

Posted by David Pinto at 08:17 AM | Players | TrackBack (0)

Comments

What was Nomar's Hit Average back during his 30 game hit streak? Was it better or worse than Damon's current one?

Posted by: Marc Normandin at July 17, 2005 10:02 AM

"the chance of the streak continuing has nothing to do with what's gone on before" ...

this assumes that plate appearances, day to day, are a set of independent events. from anecdotal evidence, ie baseball players claiming "i'm seeing the ball really well right now" or "i'm pressing" or "i need to shorten my swing", i doubt that assumption is strictly true.

Posted by: - at July 17, 2005 11:38 AM

You also have to wonder if the media attention and pressure on the streak have anything to do with a streak continuing.

Posted by: Peder at July 17, 2005 12:58 PM

You are assuming that Damon's "hit average" is independent of the number of PA's he gets. That is not necessarily true. Suppose he gets only 3 PA's in a game. There are 3 possible explanations. The game may have been shortened by weather or something else. Or Johnny may have left the game early due to injury or for some other reason. In these situations, independence is a reasonable assumption. But if he played a normal 9 inning game, then the only explanation for his getting only 3 PA's is that the opposing pitcher threw a perfect game, in which case his hit rate for that game had to be 0! (OK, there are a couple ways he could have gotten a hit even though only 27 batters came to the plate: he could have been doubled up or thrown out on the bases. So his potential hit average isn't quite 0, but it is very close.)

The opposite is true if he gets 6 or more PA's. If it's an extra inning game, independence may be a reasonable assumption. But if it is a regulation game, that means the Red Sox had at least 19 baserunners. What are the odds of that happening without their leadoff hitter getting any hits?

With the Day by Day Database it should be easy to compute Johnny's hit average by Number of PA's.

Posted by: James M. at July 17, 2005 02:48 PM

Don't ask me about statistical independence in hitting streaks. But Damon just extended the streak to 29 games with a double in the eighth. Gave the Fenway faithful something to cheer about despite a 5-1 Yankee lead.

Posted by: Casey Abell at July 17, 2005 08:27 PM

the media will start going crazy after he passes 30 - you'll see...

Posted by: lisa gray at July 17, 2005 10:15 PM

I ran the numbers while I watched the game tonight.
In 24 games where he got 4 PA's or less, Damon has 24 hits in 88 PA's, a .272 "hit average". He averaged exactly one hit per game here.

In 53 games with exactly 5 PA's (including tonight) he's 79-for-265, a .298 hit average. He averaged 1.5 hits in these games.

Note that both of these averages are considerably below the .317 you used in your calculation.

Here's the kicker. In 7 games where he came up 6 or 7 times he's a remarkable 22-for-43, A .511 HIT AVERAGE!. In long games, he is averaging better than 3 hits per game.

It's also instructive to look at his hit frequency pattern broken down by PA's.

H 4-/ 5 / 6+
0 8 / 5 / 0
1 10/23/ 0
2 4/19/ 2
3 2/ 8 / 2
4 0/ 0 / 3
T 24/53/ 7

In other words, when he has 4 PA's or less he fails to get a hit 1/3 of the time. It's hard to put much of a streak together that way. OTOH, he gets 5 PA's more than twice as often. And in those games he gets at least one hit better than 90% of the time! And in games where he comes up more than 5 times, he's a virtual lock to get a hit, and a good bet to get two or more.

Posted by: James M. at July 18, 2005 02:42 AM

Archives

By Category:
Advertising (10)
Agents (12)
All-Star Game (173)
All-Time Greats (239)
Army Strong (8)
Attendance (174)
Authors (3)
Awards (169)
Base Running (78)
Baseball (1581)
Baseball Jerks (219)
Blogs (759)
Books (129)
Broadcasts (568)
Charity (49)
Cheating (665)
Collectibles (15)
College (1)
Colleges (3)
Commissioner (40)
Conditioning (1)
Contests (10)
Crime (100)
Cuba (1)
Deaths (169)
Defense (372)
Demographics (8)
Discipline (12)
Division Races (724)
Draft (63)
Equipment (25)
Fan Rant (46)
Fan Violence (10)
Fans (58)
Fantasy Baseball (38)
Feats (3)
Films (3)
Free Agents (782)
Games (5549)
History (102)
Hit Streaks (22)
Humor (64)
Ice Cream (4)
Illnesses (135)
Independent Leagues (16)
Infrastructure (3)
Injuries (1122)
International (76)
Interviews (168)
League Championship Series (1170)
League Division Series (923)
Little League (2)
Management (1281)
Mascots (4)
Matchups (698)
Mechandising (46)
Minor Leagues (12)
Movies (9)
News Media (96)
Oddities (1)
Offense (216)
Old Timers (4)
On Base (18)
Opening Day (210)
Opening Day Impressions (19)
Other (321)
Owners (73)
Pennant Races (32)
Pitchers (2911)
Players (1524)
Podcasts (185)
Post Season (59)
Power Hitting (5)
Pranks (1)
Predictions (145)
Probabilistic Model of Range (108)
Public Relations (8)
Records (153)
Rivals (2)
Rookies (44)
Rules (25)
Salaries (12)
Scheduling (22)
Science (1)
Scoring (5)
Series (61)
Simulations (5)
Sluggers (752)
Spring Training (117)
Stadiums (279)
Standings (25)
Statistics (996)
steroids (1)
Strategy (171)
Streaks (14)
Superstitions (16)
Team Evaluation (937)
Team Movements (58)
Tickets (56)
Trades (700)
Transactions (321)
Umpires (53)
Uniforms (17)
Union (22)
Welcome! (3)
women (4)
World Cup (170)
World Series (657)

By Month:
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004
September 2004
August 2004
July 2004
June 2004
May 2004
April 2004
March 2004
February 2004
January 2004
December 2003
November 2003
October 2003
September 2003
August 2003
July 2003
June 2003
May 2003
April 2003
March 2003
February 2003
January 2003
December 2002
November 2002
October 2002
September 2002
August 2002
July 2002
June 2002
May 2002
April 2002
March 2002

Credits

Partners

Baseball Musings Ticket Store
Advertise on the Baseball Blogosphere!
Baseball Musings Fantasy Games
Sports Books
Fan Store

Patrons

Jan in Wellesley
Jack Spellman
Peter Gammons

Links

Baseball Info Solutions The publisher of the Bill James Handbook and a great source of stats.

ESPN.com's baseball page.

STATS, Inc. You'll find great baseball books and fantasy games here.

Baseball Direct Scoreboard This is powered by STATS, Inc. Good box scores, and good situational stats.

Baseball Reference.com It's like having Total Baseball and the Big Mac online!

Baseball Trade Rumors Thoughts on wheeling and dealing.

Baseball Prospectus.com Wonderful commentary and analysis.

Baseball Primer Baseball for the Thinking Fan.

The Hardball Times Baseball. Insight. Daily.

Minor League Spilts Database Up-to-date minor league statistics, broken down by situation.

Inside The Book A blog by the authors of The Book.

Baseboogle A search engine for baseball research sites.

Win Shares From Major League Baseball Graphs.

The Transaction Guy A baseball transactions blog.

Japan Baseball Daily An English language site for Japanese baseball news and stats.

Doug's Business of Baseball Weblog A blog with a focus on the economics of the game.

Why I Like Baseball A Yankee fan writes about her favorite team.

Skilton's Baseball Links Links to numerous baseball sources.

Dan Lewis A blog about all sports.

Birds in the Belfry A site about the Orioles. Articles and research.

Only Baseball Matters A baseball blog by a John J. Perricone.

Jocksalot Lots of sports links.

Al's Ramblings A Brewer's blog.

Futility Infielder Jay Jaffe's baseball site. More than just a blog.

Mike's Baseball Rants Mike Carminati's baseball blog.

Aaron's Baseball Blog A general interest baseball blog.

Boy of Summer Travis Nelson on baseball.

Baseball Crank Dan McLaughlin's blog on baseball, the war and politics.

Bambino's Curse Edward Cossette's blog about the Red Sox.

Oakland Athletics Blog David Levens writes about the A's.

Ducksnorts Articles and Blog by Geoff.

Boston Sports Media Bruce Allen's roundup of the Boston Sports Media.

The Diamond Angle An online baseball magazine.

The Cub Reporter A Chicago Cubs blog.

Bronx Banter A baseball blog by Al Belth.

At Home Plate Articles by Jonathan Leshanski.

Dodger Thoughts Jon Weisman on the Dodgers.

The Clark & Addison Chronicle A Chicago Cubs web log.

Baseball Writing Joe Zibell's essays on baseball.

The Eddie Kranepool Society A Mets blog.

Mariners Weblog The Seattle Post-Intelligencer's weblog written by Shannon Fears

PortlandSoxFan.com A Red Sox blog from Portland, CT.

The Detroit Tigers Weblog Two Tigers fans and their take on the Motor City team.

A Rookie's Life The blog of Cleveland Indians' rookie Jody Gerut.

The Baseball Desert An Englishman living in France writes about the American game.

ChiSox Daily Mike Lubuda writes about the White Sox.

Shallow Center A blog mostly about the Phillies.

The House that Dewey Built Jeff Kuhn writes about the Red Sox.

SethSpeaks.net A blog by a Twins fan.

Frank's Field of Dreams News about Asian players in the United States.

Jay's Giants Blog William Jay blogging about the Giants.

Baseball Savant Cutting edge baseball news and analysis updated everyday from all aspects of the greatest show on dirt!

Athletics Nation Blogging about the A's.

Red Reporter JD Arney writes about the Reds.

Dominican Players Raul Tavares writes about players from his home country.

The Pearly Gates An Anaheim Angels Blog.

Red Sox Haven Randy Booth on baseball.

Tigers Weblog The Detroit News weblog on the Tigers, written by Tom Gage.

Management by Baseball Jeff Angus writes on how business can learn from baseball.

The View From the Bleachers A Chicago Cubs blog.

Cubs Now! Brian Hipp on the Cubs.

Honest Wagner A Pittsburgh Pirates weblog.

All-Baseball.com A collection of excellent baseball weblogs.

Soxaholix A comic strip blog about the Red Sox.

Most Valuable Network Blogging all 30 teams.

Baseball, Etcetera Andrew Godfrey's baseball blog.

Most Valuable Network, Astros Lisa Gray and others write about the Astros.

fenwayfanatics.com A Boston Red Sox blog.

Balls, Sticks & Stuff A sports blog with an emphasis on baseball.

Phillies Nation Brian Michael writes about the Phillies.

Batgirl Less stats, more sass.

Sabernomics Economic thinking about baseball.

Fire Brand of the American League A blog about the Red Sox.

Ivy Chat Chicago Cubs and other rants.

Baseball Evolution A group website writing about baseball.

The Cubdom.com Byron Clarke blogs about the Cubs.

Red Sox Stats Sabermetric numbers for the Red Sox system.

DRays Bay A blog devoted to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

Baseball Analysts Rich Lederer and Bryan Smith combine their baseball expertise into a single site.

Over the Monster A Red Sox blog by Randy Booth.

Viva el Birdos Ghosts of the St. Louis Cardinals past, present, and future.

Black Sox Blog A look at the current and historical teams of the South Side of Chicago.

Redleg Nation A group blog about the Cincinnati Reds.

Barry's Journal Barry Bonds' web log.

Hardball Dollars Keeping track of major league salaries.

Clem's Baseball and it's "Green Cathedrals" The resource for baseball stadiums on the web.

The Baseball Zealot Looking at the game of baseball from all sides of the spectrum .

Was Watching Laconic commentary from a Yankeeland zealot.

Bleed Cubbie Blue A Chicago Cubs blog.

Beaneball A's baseball from the heart of New York City.

The Writers A collection of sports writers express their opinions.

Yard Work What the Baseball Tonight crew would write if it could.

United States of Baseball Peter Handrinos' baseball columns.

Beer Leaguer Alternative veiwpoints on the Philadelphia Phillies.

Red Sox Connection Links to everything Red Sox.

Baseball Pilgrimages Stories of visits to baseball parks.

Fangraphs Multi-year charts of player stats.

Roto Authority Unique fantasy baseball information.

Yanksfan vs. Soxfan A Yankees fan and a Red Sox fan battle it out in the blogosphere.

Sawxblog.com A Red Sox fan writes about the home town team.

Oriole Magic An MVN blog about the Orioles.

The Baltimore Chop Joseph Jackson on the Orioles.

Lookout Landing A Seattle Mariners blog.

Sons of Bart Brush A blog about the Harvard baseball team.

Base Blogging A resource for sports and baseball bloggers.

Three True Outcomes A group blog by on major league baseball.

Cardinals Diaspora A blog for Cardinals fans living away from St. Louis.

Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke? A Pittsburgh fan chronicles life in the Grand Canyon.

Brew Crew Ball A blog about the Milwaukee Brewers.

Getting Paid to Watch Posts by a former trainer for the NY Mets.

The Gas House Gang An historical St. Louis Cardinals Blog.

6-4-2 An Angels/Dodgers double play blog.

El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox Baseball and the Red Sox.

Baseball Etc

Tiger Tales A Detroit Tigers web log.

The Baseball Card Blog A blog about baseball cards.

Sox1Fan A Red Sox blog.

Out of Left Field Another Red Sox blog.

New York Yankees Update A Yankees blog with lots of photos.

Liberty Ball A current and historical Phillies blog.

Crawfish Boxes A Houston Astros blog.

MLB Rumors Clearinghouse News from around the majors.

Roar From 34 A group blog about the Orioles.

Blogging Baseball All-time baseball highlights and real-time commentary.

Rubber Arm A group blog about major league baseball.

Fenway Nation More news about the Red Sox.

Rays of Light A Devil Rays blog.

Fantasy Baseball Chronicle Information for fantasy players.

American Legends A sports blog.

Duffy's Cliff An interactive Red Sox site, featuring a lexicon of the Red Sox.

Oriole Post - The World of Baseball and Beyond An Orioles blog.

DRays Bay A Devil Rays blog.

Mets Heads A blog about the New York Mets.

The Soul of Baseball Joe Posnanski promotes his book on Buck O'Neil and blogs about baseball.

My Baseball Bias A blog about East Coast baseball.

Sports Business Radio Articles and talk about the business of sports.

The Game of Baseball A blog about Major League Baseball.

Baseball Hot Corner Opinionated observations for the thinking fan.

FantasyDope.com Fantasy baseball news.

Peter's Red Sox Forever A Red Sox blog.

Sox Nest Commentary on the Red Sox.

The Big Oz A Florida Marlins blog.

Baseball Reflections Where old school baseball meets sabermetrics.

The Sommer Frieze A Yankees blog.

Fenway Nation A Red Sox fan site.

In-Between Hops A Milwaukee Brewers blog.

Right Field Bleachers Another Milwaukee Brewers blog.

On Baseball and the Reds Another Cincinnati Reds blog.

Crooked Pitch A fantasy baseball blog.

Bless You Boys A Detroit Tigers blog.

Cubs f/x Pitch f/x and the Chicago Cubs.

The Hot Corner

Eephus Pitch Tossing pure junk about New York baseball since 2006.

It Is High, It Is Far, It Is Caught A tribute to John Sterling.

Baseball GB Baseball from a British perspective.

Nick and Nick's Twins Blog A couple of Nicks write on the Twins.

SkyKing162 Baseball with a hint of lime.

Center Field A Red Sox blog.

Empyreal Environs Writing about the Red Sox.

Trophy League Planet Aggregating the baseball blogosphere.

Cardinals Best News Links Aggregating St. Louis Cardinals news.

Zell's Pinstripe Blog A Yankees Blog.

HSAC Blog Official Musings of the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective.

The Baseball Fix A general baseball blog.

MLB Roundup A baseball video blog.

Fantasy Dope Fantasy Baseball News.

The Cubs Brickyard Hilarious fake news.

Spitting Seeds A blog about Major League baseball.

Infield Chatter A blog covering all aspects of baseball.

The Bronx View A blog and podcast about the Yankees.

Jorge Says No A blog about the Yankees.

Ivy League to MLB Shawn Haviland blogs about his efforts to rise through the Oakland Athletics system.

This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes Blog of a girl who somehow has found a way to balance being a baseball purist with being a New York Yankees fan.

Baseball from Wrigley A Chicago Cubs blog.

Sliding into Home A Yankees blog.

Boras Blog Blogging about Scott Boras.

Injury Tool Fantasy Pitch F/X offers complete information on injuries.

Instapundit Politics and the law. This site inspired me to start blogging.

Rookie Cards Baseball Card grading.

Wild Treasure Treasure hunts through the blogosphere.

San Diego Ticket Finder San Diego Ticket Information.

Prize Sports.net Baseball Collectibles.

Fantasy Sports R Us The #1 Fantasy Baseball Leagues site on the web.

RotoRank - Fantasy Baseball Draft Guides Customized For Any Fantasy Baseball League.