Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
May 23, 2005
Manny Mania

Firebrand of the American League is noticing the decline in Manny Ramirez. Evan sees that Manny is hitting poorly vs. left handed pitchers. I find his home/road numbers more disturbing. Road numbers are a good way of canceling out park effects. It's not a big enough sample size to be meaningful yet, but it's something to watch. Manny's seasonal age is 33 this year, and while it's not terribly old, it's old enough that serious declines can happen.


Posted by David Pinto at 02:37 PM | Players | TrackBack (1)
Comments

I hope that this past weekend indicates that Manny is starting to come out of his funk. Persoanlly, I'm more concerned about Keith Foulke, who is doing a remarkable impersonation of John 'Way Back' Wasdin.

Posted by: Steve M at May 23, 2005 03:43 PM

re: manny ramirez in decline? Check out Jim Thome!!

Well, Manny may be in a slight decline, but Jim Thome, who was hitless yesterday to send his batting average below .200 and thus below the mythical Mendoza line at nearly the end of May, and without a single home run and maybe a double or two to date, against the Orioles as Burrell and Mike Lieberthal homered to lead the Phils past the O's, has completely collapsed at age 35 or 36.

Thome, who was the OPS and Home Run leader of not only the Phils, but practically of the NL the last two years, has completely collapsed. He is hitting under .200. He has no home runs. He has one or two extra base hits. He looks pathetic at bat. He missed an off speed pitch yesterday by two feet. TWO FEET. He just isn't seeing the ball at all.

Meanwhile, Ryan Howard, who started out 0 for his first 15 when called up, finished 6 for 9 with a home run and several doubles and was hitting .237 with walks, power and a higher OPS and slugging average than David Bell, Placido Polanco and Mike Liberthal when the Phillies sent him down to make room for Thome and Lofton.

Right now, in the International League, Ryan is 5th or 6th League wide in On Base Average and 10th in Slugging Average. I personally witnessed his home run last Tuesday at Citizens Bank Park, a screaming opposite field line drive that was still rising as it hit the left field seats about 380 feet away in the left center power alley. And that was Ryan's opposite field power. He hit a double a couple of days before that right off the top of the wall in the same spot. He also got two other hits I believe in the game, and played a good glove at first. He has a lot more fielding range than Thome at this point in Thome's career.

Right now, I'd gladly take Manny or Giambi or anyone of these guys in decline over Thome. Thome's game has completely collapsed.

It does raise the issue of (1) Was Thome on Steroids the last two years? (2) Do Thome's back problems spell the end of his career?

Charlie Manuel, for the Baltimore series, when he had the DH, went with a lineup of 12 pitchers on the roster, and 13 players. He went with Chase Utley at first, Polanco at 2d and Lofton in Center. If he had simply cut Terry Adams, who he hasn't used in a month, and sent down a farmhand pitcher, he could have brought up Vittorino, who's slugging .535 on the farm, and Howard, and had two more left handed bats to put in the lineup.

Howard could have played first, Utley 2d, and Polanco could have been a RH pinch-hitter.

In the 7th or 8th, Burrell hit a 2B with none out. Manuel pinch ran for Burrell but let Utley, who was 0 for 13 against LH, bat against a LH, because he didn't have a RH pinchhitter other than Perez or Offerman. If Howard were at 1B, then Polanco could have batted there.

As it turns out, Utley did get a hit. But it was bad managing because he didn't have 14 or 15 players on the roster. Especially Ryan Howard, who is better right now than 50% of the active Phillies on the roster. And much better than the Jim Thome we see laboring with back problems, age-related decline, and god knows what.

Thome right now looks to be in sudden decline, like Mike Schmidt in 1988 or 89 after his brilliant campaign of the year before. Schmidt and Carlton lost it overnight; the same thing is happening to Thome. It is very sad.

Arthur John Kyriazis

Posted by: arthur John Kyriazis at May 23, 2005 03:54 PM

Remember when everyone was lamenting Jeter's decline last year when he started the season in a terrible funk? Well, he finished strong and put up good numbers. Granted, Thome has a nagging injury, but I think it's a bit too early to count him completely out forever.

Posted by: sabernar at May 23, 2005 04:19 PM

Hello? There's another, much more likely, explanation for the "decline": balls-in-play that usually find holes are currently being turned into outs. Manny is drawing walks and hitting HR's slightly above his career averages. And, on balls-in-play, he's making the sort of contact that JC's PrOPS system predicts would yield a 1.044 OPS. i.e. the problem isn't Manny's hitting ability; the problem is a short-sightedness in interpreting baseball statistics.

Posted by: Jason at May 23, 2005 05:22 PM

So Jason, you're saying Manny's been unlucky? I'll buy that for the moment.

Posted by: David Pinto at May 23, 2005 05:49 PM

Yup. That's one nice thing about JC's PrOPS score: it gives you additional evidence as to whether poor perforance is bad luck or lack of ability. Another note: Manny's batting average on balls-in-play is the lowest (.250) of all the Red Sox regulars. That won't last.

Posted by: Jason at May 23, 2005 07:28 PM

Not even a full two months into the season and all of a sudden everyone wants to criticize Manny's bat. Every hitter goes through hot and cold spells. At the end of the seasion if Manny were batting less than .300, I would be very surprised. Statistcally he performed better in the number four spot. Although Tito started Manny and Ortiz 3&4 respectively, since that was the series winning line-up. He saw it wasn't working and changed it. I still believe Manny is one of few players that could still achieve the elusive Triple Crown of baseball.

Posted by: Mike Higgins at May 24, 2005 07:45 AM

jim thome is so much better than manny ramirez who has had 8 seasons with over 40 home runs jim thome no manny rameriz who has more total carer home runs jim thome not manny ramirez jim thome is one of the best first baseman in the game he has only had seven home runs and two doubles because he has barely played so you have to have all the facts before putting jim thome out of the race for one of the best first baseman.

Posted by: jj at July 20, 2005 02:28 PM
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