Baseball Musings: Budget in the Bronx?

January 04, 2005

Budget in the Bronx?

Murray Chass pens a piece in today's NY Times saying that the Yankees are not interested in Carlos Beltran if the Johnson deal is completed.

But if a weekend signal is accurate, the most intriguing story has yet to happen. If it does happen, it will be a nonmove, as opposed to the Martínez, Wells, Johnson, Hudson and Mulder moves.
The nonmove? The Yankees will not sign Carlos Beltran, the most attractive, and expensive, position player on the free-agent market. But it's not just that the Yankees will not be signing Beltran. The story would be that the Yankees will not even try to sign him.

That was the surprising signal from a baseball official over the weekend. The official, who is in a position to hear such things, heard last week that the Yankees did not plan to pursue Beltran.

Chass points out how having the Yankees out of the bidding war hurts Boras and Beltran's chance at a giant contract (although the way the Mets have been spending money, he might do just fine). This is also probably good news for the Astros, as it gives them less competition to retain Beltran's services.

It also makes the Yankees decline more inevitable. This was a chance for the Yankees to reverse the aging process a bit by bringing in a centerfielder in his prime. Instead, A-Rod will be the youngest position player at age 29. The right side, including Bernie Williams, are all over 35. Posada is getting old for a catcher. A 40+ year old is going to anchor the rotation. At some point, the Yankees are going to need a major overhaul; maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon. They're going to find themselves in need of a centerfielder, second baseman, catcher and staff ace. Filling any one of those positions with a great player is difficult; filling all at once is nearly impossible.

Beltran is the right move for the Yankees to make long term. They should forget Johnson and go after Carlos. He would take care of centerfield for four or five years. They could then keep Navarro and let him develop as a catcher and keep Halsey and see if he develops as a pitcher. Instead, in their quest to win now, the great team of the 1990's is quickly reverting to the okay team of the 1980's. A losing record won't be far behind.

Posted by David Pinto at 08:15 AM | Free Agents | TrackBack (1)

Comments

I think you're exactly right and am excited that the Yankees are following this path!

Posted by: Greg P at January 4, 2005 09:10 AM

But Navarro isn't as good as the Yankees made him seem. He's ranked as their #8 prospect, which really isn't that good considering their minors are a shambles.

Apparently the Mets are offering Beltran MORE then his asking price of $119M. I think they Yankees should stay away from it. Is Beltran a very good player? Yes, of course, but $119M+ is a LOT of money. They already have a ton of money tied up in such a small number of players. They definately need to replace Bernie in CF, but Beltran is EXTREMELY expensive. Maybe they should try and trade for Andrew Jones, but I'm not sure they have anything the Braves want, and the Braves OF is a mess anyway. Ah well, I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens, but I don't think the Yankees will sign Beltran.

Posted by: sabernar at January 4, 2005 10:12 AM

I saw this also. My uneducated guess is that the 60/40 rule is preventing signing Beltran. The PV of a 7 year Beltran deal is around $84mm. The PV of a $45mm Big Unit deal is only $38mm. That may fit under the Yankees cap while Betran does not.

Posted by: Chuck at January 4, 2005 10:59 AM

Word on the street says the Mets are offering Beltran $140M over 8 years. That's just insane. I hope the Yanks don't match it and just walk away.

Posted by: sabernar at January 4, 2005 11:24 AM

The Mets are going to have problems for the rest of the decade. They will never get out from under Pedro's deal, and he will not pitch well or long enough to justify it, and Beltran will not be worth the tremendous money they pay him. He is good, but he is not 140/8 good.

Posted by: David at January 4, 2005 01:16 PM

"At some point, the Yankees are going to need a major overhaul; maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon." ... and for the rest of their life.

Posted by: Barron at January 4, 2005 03:32 PM

'A losing record won't be far behind.'

They've won over a 100 games the last 3 seasons and have won the division the last 7 years. I'll take the over on .500+ ball for the foreseeable future. But unless they're going to sign Beltran I agree that the money spent on Wright, Pavano, Womack, Tino could have been put to better use.

Posted by: Jack Tanner at January 4, 2005 03:53 PM

What hurts Boras and Beltran is of no consequence to me
or any other baseball fan I know. There are a number of
factors beside total dollars that make a fair deal for all
concerned. The only thing that I'm somewhat interested in is if Beltran will get a no trade clause. I think it would be better all around if Boras' and other agents' names
were not thrown around so liberally. We are making this
slimebucket some kind of star. Whatever he does is ONLY
on behalf of the player, eg, Beltran, Varitek, Rodriguez,
Lowe, etc. If something is going to sadden Beltran, then
just say that. The player is the Boss, not some kid being
dragged around by the agent. The player had much to
choose from, and he chose this person.

Posted by: susan at January 5, 2005 05:17 AM